1. Jens Bjornavold Senior expert, Cedefop Brussels Skill supply and demand in Europe Tendencies and challenges

2. Pascaline Descy 2 Ageing workforce Most of 2020’s labour force already in work Older adults are expected to work longer

3. Pascaline Descy 3 Labour force by qualification Source: Cedefop Forecast 2012

4. Pascaline Descy 4 Towards non-routine jobs A polarised and skill intensive economy 83 million job opportunities between 2010-2020 million jobs Source: Cedefop Forecast 2012

5. Pascaline Descy 5 Source: EWCS (2010) Source: Manpower Talent survey (2011) Skill gaps Skill mismatch

6. Pascaline Descy 6 Skills obsolescence Without effective skill utilisation & development, under-skilling may occur over time Loss of ability to maintain effective performance in current or future jobs A major concern in the face of ageing, technological and organisational change Without effective skill utilisation & development, under-skilling may occur over time Loss of ability to maintain effective performance in current or future jobs A major concern in the face of ageing, technological and organisational change Source: Cedefop pilot survey on skill obsolescence 2011

7. Pascaline Descy 7 Skill needs in Europe - Summary of evidence Skill demand lags behind supply in the short-term High replacement demand – sluggish expansion demand Economic restructuring – reallocation of workers Skill-intensive jobs on the rise Polarisation towards non-routine jobs – but jobs requiring medium level qualifications still the backbone of economy Significant displacement and mismatch Skills shortages, skill gaps, skills obsolescence

8. EDUCATION AND TRAINING SYSTEM Planning and delivery LABOUR MARKET Identification of demand for skills and competences Formulation of requirements Assessment and certification Skills forecasting not sufficient….. …… a need to continuously revise the feed-back mechanisms between education/training and the labour market varies across Europe

9. Feed-back between education/training and the labour market varies across Europe Four main types A ‘liberal’ type characterised by low degree of coordination and to some extent market driven A ‘statist’ model with strong state regulation and weak formal communication between education and labour market A ‘participatory’ model characterised by clearly defined involvement of social partners A ‘co-ordinated’ model where social partners play a decisive role ( Cedefop; to be published 2013)

10. Feed-back between education/training and the labour market - challenges Efficient feed back mechanism are required at all levels and need to work on a continuous basis to review, revise and renew skills requirements and skills provisions Key questions to be asked: Are relevant stakeholders involved in these feed back mechanisms? How efficient is the flow of information between education and training and the labour market?

11. European initiatives support the feed back between education/training and the labour market by strengthening the focus on learning outcomes and skills/competences -The European Qualifications Framework (EQF); shifts the focus from education and training input to learning outcomes; 16 countries linked the qualifications to the EQF; the rest to follow during 2013 and 2014… -All countries are developing national qualifications frameworks (NQFs) -ESCO – the common European terminology on skills, competences, occupations and qualifications – will allow for a better dialogue between education and training and the labour market.