1. Skills for the future Europe's skill challenge Christian Lettmayr Acting director, Cedefop

2. Skills for the future Impact of the recession on employment in EU-27+ Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012) crisis 5,5 million job losses 8 million new jobs forecast

3. Skills for the future Europe’s skill challenge Less mismatch? The importance of key competences? The “right” skills? Skills for innovation …. entrepreneurial skills? Communicating long term labour market demand??

4. Skills for the future Key results Up to 2020 the forecast points to: –more than 83 million job opportunities due to: a modest net increase in employment of around 8 million new jobs (expansion demand); and around 75 million jobs to be filled as people retire or leave the workforce (replacement demand) –job opportunities in all types of occupations, but most at the higher and lower end of the job spectrum  risk of job polarisation –most job opportunities will be in services –the trend towards more skill-intensive jobs at all levels will continue and many traditional manual or routine jobs will decline –a more highly-qualified workforce, with more than 80% of people having at least medium-level qualifications –skill demand will lag behind skill supply

5. Skills for the future Growth and uncertainty: sectors Source: Cedefop forecast 2012

6. Skills for the future Developments in occupations 83 million job opportunities between 2010-2020 Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012) million jobs

7. Skills for the future Demand for qualifications Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012) million jobs

8. Skills for the future Employment by qualifications Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)

9. Skills for the future Labour force by qualification Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)

10. Skills for the future 10 Typical pathways for young people in Europe General upper-secondary graduates tend to continue studying VET upper-secondary graduates tend to go straight to the labour market Pathways for 18-24 year olds with medium level education in EU27 in 2009 (ISCED 3 and 4)

11. Skills for the future 11 Employment premium to VET in most EU countries in 2009 Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Excludes current students. Difference in employment rates for 25-34 year olds with VET and general medium level education (% points)

12. Skills for the future Source: Cedefop (2008) National Initiatives

13. Skills for the future

14. Europe’s skill challenge Less mismatch? The importance of key competences? The “right” skills? Skills for innovation …. entrepreneurial skills? Communicating long term labour market demand??

15. Skills for the future New data and results ONLINE Look for at cedefop.europa.eu

16. Skills for the future Thank you for your attention More information: www.cedefop.europa.eu or skills-analysis@cedefop.europa.eu Access the forecast data and results online at www.cedefop.europa.eu!www.cedefop.europa.eu