1. Public Policy/Legislative
Impact
Scenario Building

2. What Is Scenario Building?
Scenario building is a structured way
of thinking about and exploring the future. 
It highlights the large scale forces that push the future
in different directions and
produces stories about how those forces might play out. 

3. Why Scenario Building?
A tool that helps shape thinking about the future
Engages whole systems thinking about what is important
to us and the institutions we work for
Creates options for the future; short, medium and long-term
Helps identify strategies to harness and implement
those options

4. So, are you up to
exploring?

5. Approaching the Task
Check mental models, assumptions, and agendas
Each of us often sees an issue through a narrow perspective; our
experience, education, philosophical and emotional view of the
world. This view is important but should not be set in stone.
Believe that the wisdom related to the topic is within the group
Within given constraints, the best group has been assembled for the task.
Honor each other’s ideas
Listen, reflect, ask questions for clarification and understanding.
Assume that what is known for certain. . . is false
Combine rigor with creativity
Allow ideas you don’t understand to surface and see the light of day.

6. Essential Question University of Michigan; Vision 2010
“How will digital technology impact higher education?”
Schoolcraft College: SimTech Center
“How will simulation technology impact teaching and learning
at Schoolcraft College?”
MACRAO Session: Public Policy/Legislation
“How will government legislation impact higher education
enterprises?”

7. Identifying Key Factors
Factors = the drivers of change; trends and other conditions
that shape the future
Factors can be visible, hidden, disruptive
Highest layers of factors often correspond to
superficial and fast-changing trends
Deepest layers involve values, world views
and belief systems

8. Identifying Key Factors
Micro-factors = those that directly relate to the world we are
now occupying (your institution, other MI community colleges,
other higher ed. institutions, etc.)
Macro-factors = those that come from the larger environment
(may drive micro-factors)

9. Identifying Key Factors
STEEP = frame for identifying key factors
Social
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Political

10. Bundling Factors Rank factors for certainty and uncertainty
1. Which factors will be most significant in determining
the answer to our essential question?
2. Which factors, amongst the most significant,
are most certain; are predetermined?
Which are uncertain?

11. Bundling Factors Which factors are most significant?
Which factors are most uncertain most uncertain?
Fragmentation
Digital
Literacy
Competition
Individual
Community
Coherence

12. Identifying Axis Factors
High end
Quadrant 1
Quadrant 2
Political/Economic
low impact
Political/Economic
high impact
Simulation Technology Capacity
Quadrant 4
Quadrant 3
Low end

13. Building the Stories
Each quadrant on the axis represents a different future
Return to the list of key factors
How will these factors play out in each quadrant?
Play with placing the factors in your quadrant?
What are the implications? What is the emerging plot?
Begin to capture this as a story

14. Building Strategies
Determine who will author each of the four scenarios
Determine who will identify strategies based on each
scenario
Develop four possible strategies to answer the essential
question?
Develop the plan
Look for indicators that demonstrate the future is heading
in the direction of one or more scenarios
Make adjustments in the plan as needed