1. Bryan Hayday Change-Ability Inc
Leadership and Planning
Bryan Hayday Change-Ability Inc

2. Traditional Strategic & Operational Planning Process
Vision
Mission
Values
1. Ends
Stakeholders
Stakeholders
2. Environmental Scan
External
Opportunities
& Threats
Internal
Strengths &
Weaknesses
Strategic
Priority
Directions
3. Priority Directions
Goals/
Strategies
4. Goals & Strategies
5. Operational Action Plan
Action
Plan
6. Monitoring & Evaluation
Evaluation: Successes & ongoing Challenges

3. How do organizations plan during periods of great uncertainty?
Specify intentions (both short- and long-term)
Prepare reactions (mitigate risk, explore opportunity)
Anticipate (readiness)
Adaptation (timeliness)
Vision (dream)
Organize ( to make sense and order out of emerging patterns)

4. Strategy and Change in Practice
Intended
Strategy
Deliberate A B D C
Emergent
Unrealized
Performance
Adapted from Henry Mintzberg,
The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning
What we intend through our plans,
What we actually implement,
The impact of what we implement, our intended and unintended outcomes,
And the actions of the larger world around us – these together bring art and humility to leadership.

5. STACEY MATRIX – Planning Implications
Strategic
Operational
Anarchy
Scenario Planning
Far From
Certainty
Far from
Agreement
Close to

6. About Scenario Planning
No organization can address everything that might be important for its future
Predicting the long-term future is notoriously unreliable
Scenario planning helps with conditions of high importance and high uncertainty
Examining diverse scenarios built around a common issue or decision enables identification of robust (or repeating) elements
Scenario planning helps to filter opportunities, risks, culture creation and key decisions
Enables focus in areas of ‘high leverage’
Use scenario planning as tool for exploration and readiness
not adaptation (contingencies)
not reaction (accommodation)
not prediction and mid-term planning (strategic)

7. Why use Scenario Planning?
Test viability of current strategy
Invigorate conventional strategic planning (exposing untested assumptions and uncertainties)
Increase capacity to see change as opportunity
Create robust strategies that can work in a variety of contexts or emergent futures
Develop sensitivity to recognize new drivers of change and “signs” in environment as they unfold
Leading with less fear and more finely-tuned sense of the possible
Co-create preferred futures, in the tension of external adaptation, emergence and internal self-organizing

8. Starting Points We cannot predict the future
Where strategic planning is the right tool in complicated times, scenario planning is the preferred approach for complex times
Good decisions and robust strategies will do well across several possible futures

9. Characteristics of Scenarios
Do not fall neatly into ‘good’ or ‘bad’ futures
May seem more like caricatures than predictions
Help us think outside the proverbial box
Help us ‘rehearse’ our decision-making under the conditions of different but plausible futures

10. Developing Scenarios Identify focal issue or decision
List key forces in the local environment
Determine driving forces
Rank by importance and uncertainty
Select scenario logics
Flesh out the scenarios
Consider implications and patterns that repeat
Select leading (versus trailing) indicators

11. Personally/ privately financed
Sample Scenario 2by2 Matrix “What kind of health system will Canada have in 2014?”
Emphasis on “Personal” Responsibility and Accountability
Scenario “A”
Scenario “B”
Personally/ privately financed
Publicly financed
Scenario “C”
Scenario “D”
Emphasis on “Public” Policy and
“Public” Responsibility
Scenarios need memorable titles – Think headlines!
The more diverse (yet plausible) the scenario stories, the more robust are any strategic elements which repeat across 3 or more scenarios

12. Discerning Robust Strategies
Robust strategies are not tied to any one set of circumstances or “future”
Robust strategies comprise the series of actions which maintains organizational viability while keeping preferred “ends” in sight
Highlights essential competencies or activities that are key to organizational success or survival in a series of plausible and vastly different futures
Robust strategies are based on key strategic elements “no matter what happens”
Robust strategies lack the precision of strategic plans because their use is tied to conditions of greater uncertainty
Important to refresh robust strategies by testing against any major changes in the political, socio-demographic, economic, environmental and technological domains