1. Facilitating Multi Stakeholder Processes and Social Learning - 2010 Herman Brouwer/ Karèn Verhoosel Centre for Development Innovation Drivers, Trends and Scenarios Visit://portals.wi.wur.nl/msp//portals.wi.wur.nl/msp

2. Drivers, trends and scenarios Collaborative Action Adaptive Planning Initiating Reflective Monitoring

3. This session Demonstrate drivers, trends, and scenarios tools Use them on our case studies Reflect on the process

4. Analyzing Drivers, Trends and Scenarios Purpose: understanding the overall environment for our cases Drivers: global and domestic factors that cause change What are the major drivers that bring about change in our sectors? How can these be translated into trends for different actors? What are the implications (issues and opportunities) of these trends for different actors? Scenarios: possible situations or course of actions driven by current trends

5. Demonstration: Oil Seed case study, Uganda What are some of the global and local drivers of change in the oil seed sector (in Uganda)?

6. Analyzing Drivers and Trends Identification method:

7. Analyze future scenarios y

8. Example Drivers And Trends

9. Example Scenario

10. Exercise: Step 1 Group exercise: make an analysis of key drivers and trends for your case Outputs: List the key drivers List trends (certain / uncertainties) List issues / opportunities for 1-2 key stakeholders faced with these trends and drivers

11. Exercise: Step 2 Focus of the analysis: Use list of key trends The most important entry point for change (so: what is the target group or the objective of the MSP in your case?) From entry point: now select 2 most important (unrelated) uncertain trends Entry point defines focus, define well! e.g.: Inclusion of vulnerable groups

12. Exercise: Step 3 Scenarios Developing key scenarios to support strategy development Define 2 trends or uncertainties Not too closely dependent on each other Which could go in contrasting directions in the future Flipchart: representing horizontal and vertical axis Label ends to show extremes of future outcomes Summarize verbally what each quadrant means Discuss entry point implications per quadrant Note key words describing the four outcomes

13. Example

15. Any questions?