How? Scenario Development Panel Drivers: demographics; economic; technological; social; governance; environmental Focus Groups on Drivers - energy - information and communications - biotechnology - institutions, society and economy Models
core elements in the Vision approach participatory approach with extensive consultation: open and transparent process; stakeholders stimulated to contribute to the Vision and make it their own. out-of-the-box thinking: emphasis on getting people to think beyond the boundaries of their normal frame of reference – stimulated through qualitative global scenarios to kick off consultations. global analysis to assure integration and co-ordination: scenarios and subsequent simulation modeling to provide a coherent basis for the global vision. Emphasis on communication: information available not just for the project team but for many outside it through as many channels as possible.
Resulting in Increasing the consistency and feasibility check on the scenarios Providing higher credibility through the intersection of different independent approaches Providing quantitative estimates of some thresholds and requirements
Anatomy of scenarios Current situation Critical dimensions Driving forces Strategic invariants (predetermined elements) Critical uncertainties Plots (logics of the scenarios) Image of the future
Outcomes: Scenarios: - Business-as-Usual - Technology, Economics and Private Sector - Values and Lifestyles World Water Vision (backcast)
Why new scenarios? Real Time Delphi Exercise November 2007 Analyses based on the results of the IPCC scenarios will be useful in WWDR3. Further scenario development based on the IPCC scenarios seems warranted. New scenarios should not be started from scratch but include new drivers that have now become apparent. Revisions to the World Water Vision scenarios should be based on new information available. A (Real Time?) Delphi process may be useful in developing these new scenarios, but Scientific and empirical observations should be used as the starting point.
Drivers in WWDR3: Demographic, economic and social Technological Policies, laws and finance Climate change Possible futures
Survey of 200 Decision-Makers May 2009 Encouraged, often with restrictions, cautions regarding resources required & avoiding duplication
Proposed new scenarios Output: a set of qualitative scenarios characterized by narratives and causal diagrams unfolding in time, combined, for those aspects amenable to mathematical formalization, with quantitative scenarios characterized by simulation models. Approach: a continuous iteration between the building of the qualitative scenarios and the simulation models, engaging experts and stakeholders in the scenario-building exercise and encouraging communication and dialogue between these different actors.
Global Scenarios In-depth discussion of the existing scenarios, followed by the development of qualitative storylines by a group of stakeholders and experts: understandable and transparent basis for understanding scenario assumptions attractive method for communicating the substance of the scenarios to non-technical people distill the combined views of the stakeholders and experts
Global Scenarios In parallel, modelers produce quantitative scenarios which provide numerical data, and make possible a consistency check of the storylines.
Scenarios at national and sub-national scales Scenario construction process and scenario findings more directly connected to concrete actors and decision-makers. Global scenarios give general direction and provide perspective and a set of functional constraints for the national and sub-national scenarios. More local scenarios provide flesh and specificity to exercise and demonstrate the diversity of situations involved in water issues.
Products : set of qualitative and quantitative scenarios and their documentation; document discussing the main strategic implications of the global scenarios, the identified critical nodes for action, and the insights obtained from the scenario exercise; set of local water scenarios; tool-box for local scenario-building; and improvement in the scenario-building capacity of local groups.
Your questions? Suggestions re the approach? Are you interested in participating - at the global level? - at the local level?