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U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 1 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Ulrich Jürgens Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für.

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Presentation on theme: "U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 1 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Ulrich Jürgens Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für."— Presentation transcript:

1 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 1 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Ulrich Jürgens Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung Social Science Center Berlin for Social Research Strategies with Regard to Market, Product Innovation, Technology and Organization Topics: 1.Globalization revisited 2.Product innovation 3.Industry organization

2 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 2 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … 52 Car Makers in the World

3 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 3 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Automobile Production by World Regions (Passenger and Commercial Vehicles, 1997 and 2003, in 1000 Units) Quelle: oica.com

4 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 4 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Forecast on Value Added Development in the Automotive Industry Worldwide* 2002 – 2015 (FAST 2015) * Automobile development/production, light vehicles Source: Mercer Management Consulting, Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft (2003) 20022015% Change Vehicle production (million units) 577633,3 Value added OEM ( billion) 22820311,0 Value added suppliers ( billion) 41770067,0 Value added total ( billion) 64590340,0

5 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 5 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Share of World Regions in Automotive Industry Value Added 2002 and 2015 Change: 65,6% Change: 17,4% Change: -51,2% Change: 10,6% Change: 19,3% Change: 259,5% Change: 328,0% Change: 67,3% Source: Mercer Management Consulting, Fraunhofer Gesellschaft (2003)

6 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 6 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Shares of Production, Domestic vs. Abroad, of Major Car Makers (2003) 51,5% 39,0% 54,9% 76,0% 72,3% 41,9% 13,4% 45,4% 59,6% 45,2% Source: Automotive News Data Center (autonews.com), VDA (2004): International Auto Statistics, own calculations.

7 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 7 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Globalization Structure of Selected Car Makers (in Percent) Source: Own calculations on the basis of IMF Auto Report 2004, p. 71

8 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 8 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Globalization Structure of Selected Car Makers (in Percent) NAFTAW. EuropeEast EuropeJapanAsia/ Pacific South America Africa & New East 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 GM Toyota VW Group Renault Daimler- Chrysler Fiat

9 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 9 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Motivation for Relocation of Production Abroad Source: Lay/Kinkel/Maloca (2003): Stand und Entwicklung der Auslandsproduktion bei Automobilzulieferern – ein Branchenvergleich. Düsseldorf: HBS, p. 18

10 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 10 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Indexed (Germany = 100) Yearly Wages/Salaries and Labour Costs per Person Employed in the European Automotive Industries 2003 Wages and SalariesTotal Labour Costs Germany100.0 UK75.969.9 France70.278.3 Sweden66.477.7 Spain55.659.5 Italy49.557.4 Hungary20.322.0 Poland18.117.8 Czech Republic16.417.9 Slovenia11.8- Slovakia12.913.9 Romania5.66.2 Russia4.0– Source: VDA: International Auto Statistics, edition 2004, p. 350f.; 361f., own calculations. The average per-capita figure for wages and salaries in Germany was 45700; for total labour costs 57200.

11 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 11 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Use of Modern Organization Concepts by German Auto Suppliers Relocating Production Abroad Source: Fraunhofer ISI, Mitteilungen aus der Produktionsinnovationserhebung, No. 32, March 2004, p. 10

12 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 12 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Innovation Roadmap Compact Class Europe Electro- nics in all seg- ments Electronic bus systems Smart Airbags LED tall lights LED head lights CO 2 air conditioning Pedestrian protection sensors Fully variable interiors Head-up display Pre-crash sensor system Active lighting Adaptive cruise control Smart power distribution Infotainment (e.g. smart navigation system) Night vision Object recognition 42 V electric grid Fuel cell as auxiliary power unit Optical bus systems Electrohybrid propulsion Electromechanical valve timing gear Flat ribbon cable High-pressure supercharged diesel Elektrical radiator and ventilation/cooling control Thermal manage- ment Particle filter Shift-by-wire CVT Electric double clutch Piezo injectors Gasoline direct injection Electronic power- assisted steering Starter generator Fuel cell New materials (high-tensile steels, aluminium) Air suspension Electric parking brake Tire pressure monitoring Electrical overlay steering Active suspension Aluminium Electromech. brake (brake-by-wire) Electromech. steering (steer-by-wire) Product differentiation of identical compo- nents by software Friction coeffic. recogn. Hydroforming Steel space frame Adhesives technology Metal foam Plastic add-on parts Sandwich structure Composite materials Laser welding Color matching Colors with Lotus effect Segments Interior Power train Chassis Body 2002200520102015 External network Electrohydraulic brake Source: HAWK Study by McKinsey & Company/PTW (2003: 20)

13 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 13 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … R&D Costs per Car of Selected Car Makers 2003 Source: Goldman Sachs (2004): Germany: Automobiles - DaimlerChrysler (DCXGN.DE) US-Dollar

14 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 14 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Employment Potential Through X-by-wire Systems Germany (1997 to 2002 to 2015) System integration/ assistant systems ABS ESP+ Steer-by-wire 37.500 17.500 5.500 2002 200520102015 Additional employment Electr. hydr. assisted steering Electromech. steering +3.500 +9.500 +24.500 +13.000 +8.000 +2.000 Sensorics, batteries, bord net, electronics Brake-by-wire Initial level 1997 EHB ESP Source: Jürgens, U.; Meißner, H.-R. (2005): Arbeiten am Auto der Zukunft. Berlin, p. 122

15 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 15 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Emplyoment Perspectives in the Area of Powertrains in Germany 2002 200520102015 Additional employment Diesel injection technology +52.000 +7.000 +6.000 +4.000 European Diesel boom (40% market share) Diesel boom USA? +1.000 +3.000 Fuel cell/hydrogenic propulsion Hybrid propulsion +4.000 +12.000 (+1.600) +40.000 Initial level 1997 +3.000 Innovation competition Diesel/Hybrid Innovation competition Otto/Diesel Gasoline direct injection technology +3.000 Source: Jürgens, U.; Meißner, H.-R. (2005): Arbeiten am Auto der Zukunft. Berlin, p. 168

16 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 16 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Impact of a Change from Conventional Engines to Fuel Cell Systems on the Supplier Industry Source: Wengel, J.; Schirrmeister, E. (Hg.) (2000): Innovationsprozess vom Verbrennungsmotor zur Brennstoffzelle. Karlsruhe, p. 181

17 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 17 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Some Findings of the Project Innovation and Employment in the Automotive Industry Project Results (I) The intensification of innovation has positive effects on employment and competitivity Diesel technology as European success story x-by-wire as specialty of European suppliers Competing technologies in various propulsion systems, light-weight materials etc. lead to a multiplication of R&D activities We observe a technological revolution in basic technologies which, nevertheless, is implemented in an incremental way (delay/canceling of introduction dates; long periods of phase-in and phase-out) In the mid and long term the innovation dynamics lead to drastic structural effects regards types of suppliers and division of labor OEM - suppliers.

18 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 18 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Project Results (II) We found only weak links between innovation strategies and personnel development strategies, between technology road-maps and consequences for employees. Cross-functional approaches (R&D and production) to discuss consequences of innovation on employment and qualification requirements were also weakly developed.

19 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 19 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Die zehn größten Automobilhersteller weltweit nach Produktionszahlen 2003 und Veränderungen gegenüber 1997

20 U. Jürgens Folie Nr. 20 Turin 2005 quer.ppt IpL/HBS European Conference Relaunching the Innovation Rates … Company Value by Market Qualification The Top Ten Auto Companies of 2004 Toyotas cash and other liquid assets at the end of business year 2004: 32,7 bln. US-Dollar Source: Börsenzeitung of 12.2.2004; Toyota Motor Corporation, Annual Report, March 31, 2004, SEC Forum 20


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