1. CLIMATE INFORMATION: IMPORTANCE OF DATA AND MONITORING By: S. N. MARIGI KENYA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT P.O.BOX 30259 NAIROBI

2. PRESENTATION Significance of climate Data requirements Sources of data Goal of climate monitoring The climate information system Status of the climate information system in Africa Addressing challenges of the climate information system in Africa The problem of poor predictability Conclusions

3. Introduction: Significance of climate  Climate variability has impacts on all countries and on all strata of socio-economic activity  So called climate ‘disasters’ usually take prime position in the headlines but normal inter-annual climate variability continually affects agricultural production, water resources, energy and many other sectors.  Climate monitoring, prediction and early warning upon which appropriate actions are taken will undoubtedly assist in mitigating some of the negative impacts of climate variability while taking advantage of the positive impacts (Availability of long-term, high quality data with good spatial coverage is therefore a prerequisite in such an endeavour. )

4. Data requirements  Weather and climate data are required in order to understand, monitor and predict climate phenomena. * Initialization of models * Validation of models * Verification of forecasts * Construction of time series for trend and climate change detection (long-term datasets) * Climate database is used to provide basic and tailored climate information in form of atlases including means, variability and return periods,daily rainfall frequencies,etc. * The database also forms a documentation of past climate events for inter-disciplinary impact studies

5. Cont’d  Weather and climate transcend national boundaries, and accordingly; * National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs),as well as daily national weather forecasts and warnings,cannot be achieved without regional and international data. * Consequently, observations throughout, and even beyond, a region are of considerable interest to individual countries within the region, as are products based on such observations.

6. Sources of climate data These fall into four categories namely:  Atmospheric Observations  Oceanographic Observations  Terrestrial Observations  Spaced-Based Observations

7. (a) Atmospheric Observations  The principal global networks for atmospheric observations related to climate are the GCOS Surface Network (GSN), the GCOS Upper Air Network (GUAN), and the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW).  GSN and GUAN are part of WMO's World Weather Watch and provide data on meteorological parameters, including temperature, pressure, precipitation, wind velocity, and humidity, all relevant to climate change and variability studies.  The GAW programme collects information on: * Greenhouse gases as carbon dioxide, methane,chlorofluorocarbons, and nitrous oxide. * Ozone, ultraviolet radiation, aerosols, and acid precipitation

8. (b) Oceanographic Observations  Both space-based and in situ networks measure sea surface temperature, winds, waves, salinity, sea level, sea ice properties, surface and sub-surface currents, and other observations.  In general, ocean observing networks are not as developed as atmospheric networks, and large and significant network gaps exist across vast expanses of ocean space, especially in the Southern Hemisphere

9. (c) Terrestrial Observations  Terrestrial observations for climate encompass measurements of the terrestrial properties and attributes that control the physical, biological, and chemical processes affecting climate; are affected by climate change or climate variability; serve as indicators of climate change; or relate to impacts of climate change  For the most part, global-scale terrestrial networks have not been developed to the same extent as atmospheric networks  Important recent advances in terrestrial observations have only occurred in global permafrost, glacier, terrestrial carbon, and hydrology networks.

10. (d) Spaced-Based Observations  Conventional surface-based observations cannot provide all of the data required for investigating the climate  Satellite observations are a practical source for measurements that cannot be made any other way, such as measurements of ocean topography and the extent of polar ice sheets  “Ground truth” of satellite observations is needed.

11. OVERALL GOAL OF CLIMATE MONITORING To provide information that enables and persuades people and organisations to take action to minimise the the negative impacts of climate variability and also take advantage of the good years/seasons. In this respect :  Climate forecasting services should therefore be supported by monitoring activities.  Monitoring is required for forecast verification, and provides necessary data for updating forecasts as well as the season (forecast period) progress.  Climate anomalies affect vulnerability and monitoring of these anomalies is a vital component for interpreting the possible impacts of forecast climate

12. Some examples of prediction and early warning products Cumulative time series graphs

13. Cont’d Rainfall trend for Khartoum

14. Cont’d Drought severity index for February 2002 Consensus Climate Outlook for the Period March to May 2002

15. Some examples of impacts of extreme climate anomalies (a) Houses submerged due to floods (b) Crop failure due to drought

16. The information System “Climate information” may be seen in this context as the ‘state-of-the- art’ of exploitation of past climatological records as well as climate monitoring activities Data and their handling methods constitute the information system. This provides a conceptual basis for the development of approaches in resource management,ensuring that the right data and information are available in the right form at the right place and in time A robust data management system is required both for providing for the intended uses for which the data and information are collected and for a multitude of non-anticipated uses. A well designed information system contains synergism of the following: *The information is not destroyed by its use (must be properly preserved and available at minimal cost) *The information can be used to improve the understanding of the processes being monitored and develop relevant products

17. Five step simplification of the climate information system 1: Data- GSN, GUAN, GAW, etc. 2: Analysis and Predictions:- Anomalies, ENSO,QBO,SST gradients, etc. 3: User oriented products:- Rainfall probabilities, drought index,etc. 4: User interface:- Outreach, media,etc. 5: User applications and benefits:- Increased yields, better decisions, improved profits, less losses, etc.

18. Cont’d  The stage headed “ data” refers to the basic network that is in place to obtain, disseminate and archive observations (GCOS and www together with other structures manage this important activity)  The stage headed “ analyses and prediction” covers the work that is being, and has been, done to examine and interpret the observations and develop models as well as forecasts  In stage three, products are developed that are appropriate to the needs of the final user  In the fourth stage, the information is communicated to the end-user in a manner that develops thrust and understanding  In the final stage, applications are created and benefits gained ( stages 3-5 all refer to products and information delivery upon which decisions can be made)

19. Status of the climate information system in Africa Information delivery to the end-users is vital if it is to have meaningful impacts. In this respect, it has been observed that:  In relative terms, efforts and resources (both national and international) have been invested in data and analyses and predictions  It is only in the recent past that some agencies such as NOAA/OGP and USAID have initiated programs addressing user applications  Despite the disparities in development within the various stages of the climate information system, the system still faces many problems as highlighted next.

20. (a) Data problems  Declining observational network and poor spatial coverage  Existence of data gaps at some locations  Availability of some good data in ledger files that have not been computerised  Obsolete computerised data base systems such as old tapes and microfilms with no facilities to read (e.g. data stored on Micro- Vax mini computer which uses the VMS operating system)  Some stations experience resource-related problems (e.g.skilled human resources and computing capacity)  Available satellite data need ground truthing

21. (b) Information delivery and applications problems  There is limited clarity on what forecast formats are best suited to user needs but it is known that the optimal format may vary between applications  There is limited structure in interfacing information to end -users, and sometimes products are made available without any interfacing considerations, thus losing credibility.  Production and delivery systems are somewhat fragmented and consequently it is difficult to reach those end users who may have particular need for the information  End-users often perceive a need for temporal and spatial detail in the prediction that currently cannot be achieved.  Best method from the scientific perspective of delivering outlooks is through probabilistic approaches. Probability forecasts, however, are often viewed as difficult to understand and act upon.

22. Addressing the challenges of the climate information system There is a critical need to develop and /or improve the African climate information system to better understand the African climate variability and change. This will also enable a better climate monitoring in the continent and thus a better mitigation of the effects of extreme climate events. Efforts to this end are highlighted next

23. (a) Data and Observations  A global climate observing system (GCOS) meeting for the eastern and southern Africa was held in Kisumu, Kenya, from 3 – 5 October 2001 to address the issue of deficiencies of observation networks in the region. Several recommendations were put forward on the issue. This was followed by experts meeting on January 2002 where several proposals were prepared and an action plan developed. This action plan is now a reference tool with regard to the priority areas to address.  With regard to hydrological network, WMO and its partners have now established the IGAD WHYCOS project which will address the issue  The Mt Kenya GAW (Global Atmospheric Watch) was commissioned on 5 th October 2001. The project is to monitor ozone levels in the region  A proposal that is intended to capture data that is not currently accessible has been prepared by DMCN and is being floated to donors for possible funding.  The region is preparing to install satellite receivers in anticipation of the enormous data that will be availed through the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) of satellite which is due to be launched ( ground truthing?)

24. (b) Information delivery and applications Regional climate outlooks, national user workshops and pilot applications projects were initiated with the objective of addressing some of the problems associated with information delivery and applications. Without doubt, these have:  Played a significant role in capacity building in many parts of the globe  Helped develop links between Meteorologists and end-users of seasonal forecasts  Stimulated interest in and created recognition of the impacts of inter- annual climate variability  Assisted in developing activities that mitigate against the impacts of climate variability  Helped demonstrate the economic value of applying climate information and prediction products in decision making for socio- economic development

25. Problem of poor predictability Needless to say, perfect forecasts do not exist.  Whether or not the degree of the skill is enough depends entirely on the use to which the forecast is being put  Usefulness of the skill is thus subjective (use and region dependent)  When a model is skill indeed poor, climatology prevails

26. CONCLUDING REMARKS The value of climate information in the planning and management of resources is enormous Demand for climate information is on the increase year after year especially that tailored to specific application. Several problems do exist regarding the production and delivery of climate information and products for effective utilisation. Some programs are already in place to address some of the shortcomings of the climate information system. These include initiatives by GCOS,GAW and WHYCOS as well as the regional climate outlook forums.