Presentation on theme: "2010 update of GCOS IP in support of UNFCCC Paul Mason and Stephan Bojinski GCOS Steering Committee September 2010."— Presentation transcript:
2010 update of GCOS IP in support of UNFCCC Paul Mason and Stephan Bojinski GCOS Steering Committee September 2010
2010 Update of GCOS Implementation Plan Draft considered at UNFCCC COP15 in Copenhagen Open community review 13 November 2009 – 31 January 2010 450 comments received One large expert meeting, 4 task team meetings Finalized on 31 August 2010 and published Submitted to UNFCCC for COP16
Document objectives as in 2004 - --but more fully dealt with Characterise the state of the global climate system and its variability; Monitor the forcing of the climate system, including both natural and anthropogenic contributions; Support the attribution of the causes of climate change; Support the prediction of global climate change; Enable projection of global climate change information down to regional and local scales; and Ensure the availability of information important in impact assessment and adaptation, and for the assessment of risk and vulnerability, including the characterisation of extreme events;
What is new and what should the Steering committee consider advice on? ECV list changes and challenges Impacts, habitats and biodiversity Additional focus on reference and super site networks Engagement of national scale adaptation and impact needs The need for GCOS to work efficiently and fairly with partner programmes and observing systems --- in seeking to progress an IP of increasing scope Taking forwards a plan with major costs at a time of economic stress
Encouraging long term ecosystem records with monitoring to climate standards
GCOS Essential Climate Variables (50 ECVs) Priority list of variables to be observed systematically Criteria: Global observations feasible (practical, cost-effective) High impact on needs of UNFCCC, climate research (WCRP), climate change assessments (IPCC) DomainEssential Climate Variables Atmospheric (over land, sea and ice) Surface: Air temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure, Surface radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour. Upper-air: Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties. Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane, Other long-lived greenhouse gases, Ozone and Aerosol, supported by their precursors. Oceanic Surface: Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea Ice, Current, Ocean colour, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Phytoplankton Sub-surface: Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Oxygen, Tracers. Terrestrial River discharge, Water use, Groundwater, Lakes, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Permafrost, Ice sheets, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Above-ground biomass, Soil carbon, Fire disturbance, Soil moisture.
Reference and super sites Some quite specific networks eg GRUAN - -- but collocation is key objective The multi-community challenge of super sites How to best deal with extra variables that are practical at such sites A capacity building component
2010 Update of GCOS Implementation Plan: Cost estimates
Moving from 0.6B in 2004 to 2.5B in 2010? Feedback from network operators gave cost increases c.f. 2004 figures of typically x2 Satellites also have extra missions including the addition of limb sounding missions The national scale networks were not previously included.
The national scale adaptation and impact assessement networks Costs refer to developing countries achieving developed country network densities Networks are largely the basic meteorological, hydrological and coastal observations How can and should GCOS work with partners to seek this very large level of improvement in developing countries
What planning document will and might follow Satellite supplement update planned for Jan 2011 An in-situ equivalent would show balance eg re network densities and accuracies Such a publication would need high observing system partner involvement