1. World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water
WMO OMM
Early Warning Systems
Dr. Maryam Golnaraghi
Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme
World Meteorological Organization
29-30 May 2013
Skopje, Macedonia

2. Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
Outline
Impacts of meteorological, hydrological and climate-related Hazards
The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 – 2015
A Comprehensive National Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
What is an Early Warning Systems?
Examples of Good Practices in EWS
10 common principles for successful EWS
International and Regional Cooperation in Science and technology to support Early Warning Systems
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009

3. Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
WMO
South-East Europe (Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo (as defined by UNSCR 1244/99), and Turkey)
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
Main 3

4. Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
South-East Europe
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WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data 4

5. Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
South-East Europe
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data 5

6. Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
South-East Europe
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data 6

7. South-East Europe Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
2003 Summer heat wave: 788 deaths in Croatia
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data 7

8. South-East Europe Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
Forest fire in Croatia in 1983: $US 0.5 billion
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WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data 8

9. Hyogo-Framework for Action 2005-2015 in a nut shell…
Governance and Institutional Framework (Policy, Legislation, legal framework, institutional coordination)
(Multi-sector, Multi-level, Multi-Hazard) 2
Risk Assessment
Risk Reduction
Risk Financing and Transfer
QUANTITATIVE MULTI- HAZARD-MULTI-LEVEL, MULTI-SECTOR RISK ANALYSIS
Hazard, exposure and vulnerability databases
Statistical and forward looking approaches
PREPAREDNESS & RESPONSE: early warning systems emergency planning
PREVENTION and MITIGATION: Sectoral Medium to long term planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture…)
Gov Investments, trust funds (ex-ante, post disaster)
CAT insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives
Other emerging products 3 1 4
Disaster risk management strategies, as detailed in the HFA, can be framed under three main areas: Risk Identification, Risk Reduction and Risk Transfer. HFA stresses that successful disaster risk management should be supported by effective governance, legislation, legal frameworks and institutional capacities at national to local levels supplemented by effective information and knowledge sharing mechanisms among different stakeholders. 5
Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training 6
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© World Meteorological Organization 9 9

10. A Multi-Sector, Multi Level Issue
Policy and legislative process (Roles and responsibilities)
Early Warning Systems development and on-going operations with Disaster Risk Management and local Communities with a sustainability approach
Socio-economic sectors:
Transport (air, land, water)
Agriculture and food security
Water Resource Management
Land zoning
Infrastructure and urban planning
Health
Tourism
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11. Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
South-East Europe
Multi-Hazard Issue
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data 11

12. Understanding the Risks Provides the Foundation for Preventing Disaster Risks!
Hazard
Analysis and
Mapping
Exposure
and
Vulnerability
Potential
Loss
Estimates
This information is critical for decision-making and development of strategies to reduce the risks
Number of lives at risk
$ at risk
Destruction of buildings and infrastructure
Reduction in crop yields
Business interruption
Impacts:
population density
agricultural land
urban grid
Infrastructure
Businesses
Heavy Precipitation
and flood mapping
Need for historical and real time data
Statistical analysis tools climate forecasts and trend analysis
Need for Socio-economic impacts data and analysis tools
Need for risk assessment tools combining hazard, asset and exposure information
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009

13. Early Warning Systems Require Coordination Across Many Levels and Agencies
National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms 1 2
Early warning systems involve four elements, which need to be supported by governance, coordination and collaboration mechanisms from national to local levels, and by appropriate infrastructure. These four elements include:
Observing, detecting and developing hazard forecasts and warnings;
Assessing the potential risks and integrating risk information in the warning messages;
Distributing, rapidly and reliably, understandable warnings to authorities, risk managers and the population at risk;
Emergency preparedness and response to warnings at all relevant levels to minimize the potential impacts. 3 4
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14. Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009

15. Many countries are still in response and relief mode!
COMMUNITIES AT RISK
National
Government
(emergency systems)
Local
government
disaster response
hazard warning
National Technical
Services
Disaster response
hazard warning
Meteorological
Hydrological
Geological
hazard warning
Marine
Health (etc.)…
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16. There is need for investments in all Components of Early Warning Systems at national to local levels1
National
Government
DRR coordination mechanisms
Local
Government responsible for emergency preparedness and response
Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination 4
warnings
warnings 4
feedback
feedback 3 5 5
Community Prepared
Capacity Development and Coordinated National
Technical Agencies 2 4
Effective early warning systems require:
Strong support from the government and alignment of policies, planmning, legislation, resources across different levels of the government
Coordination among national technical services for monitoring, detecting, forecasting and development and issuance of issuance of authoritative warnings that take vulenrabilities and exposure of elements into account
Authoritative and reliable dissemination channel to authorities at national to lovcal level and public
Community emergency preparedness measures and ability to activate
Feedback mechanism
Early Warning Systems need to be designed with a multi-hazard approach to ensure:
Leveraging Resources and Capacities
Cost-effectiveness
Inter-operability
Maintenance and sustainability
Meteorological
Hydrological
Geological
Marine
Health, Agricuture (etc.)
warnings
feedback 5
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17. Weather, Climate and Hydrological Services to support DRR Decision-Making
Other National Agencies Involved in DRR
(e.g. Hydrological Services, Ocean Services, Health Services, Space)
National DRR Governance and Institutional Frameworks a
Agreements & SOPs e
Government (national to local)
Socio-economi sectors
Private Sector
NGOs
General Public
Media
Etc...
National DRR Stakeholders
National Meteorological Service (NMS)
National
Requirments
Service Delivery
Feedback b
Core Operatioinal Components
Data, Forecast, Analysis
Products & Services for:
Risk Analysis
Early Warnnings
Sectoral Planning Disaster Risk Financing and insurance
Observing network
Operational Forecasting
Telecommunications
Human Resource
Data Management Systems
Etc... c d
Agreements
&
SOPs
Quality Managment Systems (QMS)
GTS/WIS
Agreements & SOPs e f
RegionalDRR Governance and Institutional Frameworks
Global & Regional
Specialized Meteorological & Climate Centers
(GPC, RSMC and RCC)
Regional

18. Example of cooperation of NMS with technical and EWS stakeholders in context of different hazard types
Increasing level of operational coordination with primary coordinators of emergency preparedness and response
Type I
Type II
Type III
Hazard fully under the mandate of NMS
Hazard under joint mandate of NMS with another technical agency (e.g., NHS)
Hazard under mandate of other agencies but NMS contribute
e.g. strong winds, strong rainfall, snow/ice, hail, tropical cyclone
e.g. floods, landslides, heat/health etc.
e.g. locust, health epidemic, man-made hazards
Increasing Level of operational coordination and cooperation with other national technical and sectoral agencies for early detection, monitoring and development of warnings
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009

19. French Vigilance system Germany Japan Shanghai (Mega City) USA
Examples of Good practices in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems and Lessons Learned
Bangladesh
Cuba
French Vigilance system
Germany
Japan
Shanghai (Mega City)
USA
Ref. Golnaraghi, M. (Ed.) “Institutional Partnerships in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems: A compilation of Seven National Good Practices and Guiding Principles,” Springer Verlag (2012)
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20. Ten common principles for successful EWS
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009

21. 10 common principles for successful Early Warning Systems (1/2)
Political recognition of the benefits of EWS along with effective planning, legislation and budgeting
Effective EWS are built upon four components:
(i)) hazard detection, monitoring and forecasting;
(ii) analyzing risks and incorporation of risk information in emergency planning and warnings;
(iii) disseminating timely and “authoritative” warnings with clarity on the responsibilities and mandate for issuance of warnings;
(iv) community emergency planning and preparedness and the ability to activate emergency plans to prepare and respond
Roles and responsibilities of all EWS stakeholders and their collaboration mechanisms clearly defined and documented
Capacities aligned with resources across national to local levels (sustainability)
Hazard, exposure and vulnerability information are used to carry-out risk assessments at different levels
There is a strong political recognition of the benefits of EWS reflected in harmonized national to local disaster risk management policies, planning, legislation and government budgeting;
Effective EWS are built upon four components: (i) hazard detection, monitoring and forecasting; (ii) analyzing risks and incorporation of risk information in emergency planning and warnings; (iii) disseminating timely and “authoritative” warnings with clarity on the responsibilities and mandate for issuance of warnings; and, (iv) community emergency planning and preparedness and the ability to activate emergency plans to prepare and respond, with coordination across agencies involved in EWS, at national to local levels;
EWS stakeholders are identified and their roles and responsibilities clearly defined and documented within the national to local plans, legislation, directives, MOUs, etc, including those of the technical agencies such as the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services;
EWS capacities are supported by adequate resources (e.g., human, financial, equipment, etc.) across national to local levels and the system is designed and implemented accounting for long-term sustainability factors;
Hazard, exposure and vulnerability information are used to carry-out risk assessments at different levels, as critical input into emergency planning and development of warning messages;
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009

22. 10 common principles for successful Early Warning Systems (2/2)
Clear, consistent and actionable hazard warnings, with risk information and issued from a single recognized authoritative source
Timely, reliable, redundant and sustainable warning dissemination mechanisms
Emergency response plans targeted to the individual needs of the vulnerable communities, authorities and emergency responders
Regular training and education programmes in risk awareness and emergency response actions
Effective feedback mechanisms throughout levels of the EWS for system improvement over time
Warning messages are, (i) clear, consistent and include risk information, (ii) designed with consideration for linking threat levels to emergency preparedness and response actions (e.g., using color, flags, etc) and understood by authorities and the population, (iii), issued from a single (or unified), recognized and “authoritative” source;
Warning dissemination mechanisms are able to reach the authorities, other EWS stakeholders and the population at risk in a timely and reliable fashion;
Emergency response plans are developed with consideration for hazard/risk levels, characteristics of the exposed communities (e.g., urban, rural, ethnic populations, tourists, and particularly vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly and the hospitalized), coordination mechanisms and various EWS stakeholders;
Training on risk awareness, hazard recognition and related emergency response actions are integrated in various formal and informal educational programmes and linked to regularly conducted drills and tests across the system to ensure operational readiness; and
Effective feedback and improvement mechanisms are in place at all levels of EWS to provide systematic evaluation and ensure system improvement overtime.
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009

23. Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
International and Regional Cooperation in Science and technology to support Early Warning Systems
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24. Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
WMO Leverages International and Regional Cooperation: Coordinates Operation Meteorological Network to support National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
189 Members
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009

25. Global/Regional Operational Network of WMO
Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs)
Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)
RCC Network Nodes (Pilot)
Washington
Montreal
Exeter
ECMWF
Toulouse
Moscow
Pretoria
Melbourne
Beijing
Seoul
Tokyo
LC-SVSLRF: Lead Centre for Standardized Verification System for Long Range Forecasts
LC-LRFMME: Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
LC-SVSLRF
LC-LRFMME
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres with Activity Specialization
Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres with Geographical Specialization
ACMAD
ICPAC
SADC-DMC
DMCSEE
CIIFEN
Regional climate institutions with strong WMO support
Sand & Dust Storm Warning & Assessment System Centres
Monsoon Activity Centres
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26. Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
Regional harmonization, interoperability of national early warning systems is critical to managing trans-boundary hazards and sustainability of national systems
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27. Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
Thank You
For more information please contact:
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.
Chief
Disaster Risk Reduction Programme
World Meteorological Organization
Tel .
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009

28. Example 1: France Vigilance System
+ Flood warning map
Hazards
Strong wind
Strong rainfall
Thunderstorm
Snow/Ice
Avalanches
Heat waves
Level of warning
Level 4
Level 3
Level 2
Level 1
Initiated in coordination by Météo-France and French civil security, Vigilance system activates cascades of preparedness and response plans, actions and responsibilities
Legislation
Planning
Organizational linkages
Training and feedback
Green No special vigilance required.
Yellow Potentially dangerous and unusual meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Be very vigilant. Keep informed about meteorological conditions.
Orange Be very vigilant; dangerous meteorological phenomena are forecast; keep informed about meteorological evolution and follow advice from authorities.
High tech hydrometeorological products and services + human expertise => collective and individual prevention measures and reactions.
Flood warnings: montoring, forecasting and warning at the watershed level ; legislation, planning, and response at the local government level (differents borders and entities).
EXAMPLE: HOW HEAT WAVE ALERTS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE SYSTEM
2003 heatwave impacts have led to formalized agreements between Météo France and two institutions in charge of public health. By the end of 2003 (see also Chapter 6), a first agreement was quickly set out to provide some new indicators, albeit on a provisional basis, with the operationally oriented "Institut de Veille Sanitaire" (Institute for Sanitary Watch). Another collaboration which is much more far-reaching was established in July 2004 with the medical research institute INSERM. According to the press release, it is due to enlarge and enhance the combined research on heat (and cold) waves and their impact on public health,with an aim to document and study in details the bio-meteorological mechanisms at much finer scales and over a longer period of 30 years.
national to
local authorities

29. Saving Lives Through Partnerships
Example 2: USA Multi-Hazard Early Warning System
The U.S. National Response Framework (NRF) provides the guiding principles that enable all response partners to deliver a unified national response to disasters and emergencies, Maintained by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
Saving Lives Through Partnerships
NOAA TEAM
PARTNERS
END USERS
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
“America’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”

30. Example 3: Japan Multi-Hazard Early Warning System
Information Sharing System based on Advanced IT Infrastructure
FDMA
Satellite network
Prefecture
Predigested maps and information
City
Prefectural LAN
Disaster prevention
information system
JMA
It is essential to give early warnings certainly to the related organizations which have responsibilities to take actions for disaster mitigation. JMA maintains information dissemination system in linkage with related organization using dedicated telephone line respectively.
This figure shows an example for dissemination to local governments.
Zoom up the area of concern
　　 　 　 　
○○市大雨警報発表中
Data Format for Cell-Phone Services
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
Volunteer fire fighter
Cell-phone

31. Example 4: Germany - Warning Management of the Deutscher Wetterdienst
a 3-tiered warning management system (time dimension) that differentiates between 5 risk levels
Prewarning
48 to 6 h ahead
for preparation only in
case of expected
severe weather warning
(Severe) Weather Warning
12 to 0 h ahead
Regional hazard bulletin
24 h ahead
updated 4 times per day
The spatial and the timely
scale of all warning information
are closely connected
Early Warning Hazard Bulletin for Germany
daily updated
7 to 2 days ahead
FeWIS a customized information platform- one system for different authorities – developed in co-operation with disaster management organisations
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009

32. Multi-Hazard, Multi-Agency, Grass root
Example 5: Shanghai City Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Emergency Response Programme (Mega City)
Multi-Hazard, Multi-Agency, Grass root

33. Example 6: Cuba Cyclone Early Warning
Small country, 99% access to media (radio & TV), coordinated top-down warning and response mechanisms
Warning

34. Example 7: Cyclone Preparedness Programme in Bangladesh
Since a devastating cyclone in 1991 killed an estimated 139,000 people throughout Bangladesh, the coastline has been studded with concrete shelters raised on 12-foot pillars to allow tidal surges to flow beneath. The government also honed its early warning systems and set up a volunteer network to assist with evacuations.
Year Death toll Name Area
West Sundarbans
Megna Eestuary
Chittagong, Noakhali
Barisal district
Bhola Khulna, Chittagong
Urir, Jabbar, Bata, Darbesh, Clark, Sudharam, Hatia, Sand Wip Islands + Patuakhali, Bhola, North Chittagong, Feni, Noakhali districts
Gorky Cox's Bazar, Chittagong, Patuakhali, Noakhali, Bhola, Barguna

35. Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
International Attention to Early Warning Systems with Multi-Hazard Approach (1/2)
First International Early Warning Conferences (Potsdam, 1998) (
Second World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg, 2002)
Johannesburg Plan of Implementation
Second International Early Warning Conferences (Bonn, 2003) (
Platform for Promotion of Early Warnings
World Conference on Disaster Reduction (Kobe, January 2005)
Hyogo Framework for Action
G8 Summit and UN General Assembly (2005, 2006)
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36. Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
EWS References
M. Golnaraghi (ed) (2012), “Institutional Partnership in Multi- hazard Early Warning Systems:A Compilation of Seven National Good Practices and Guiding Principles, Book Published by Springer Verlag (2012)
Golnaraghi, M., J. Douris, J. B. Migraine (2008), “Saving Lives Through Early Warning Systems and Emergency preparedness,” Risk Wise, Published by Tutor Rose, Page
Golnaraghi, M., J. Douris, C. Baubion (2011),“Good Practices in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems,” Risk Returns, Published by Tutor Rose, Page 95-97
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009