1. FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES OF FOTONIKA-LV 2012-2015 Support from the International Foresight Academy PROJECT PEOPLE-IRSES-GA-2011-294959 University of Latvia 72nd Annual Conference, 2014-02-05

2. TOPICS  Context  What is foresight?  Foresight methods  Foresight activities proposed in the FOTONIKA-LV REGPOT 2011-11 Project  International Foresight Academy  Plan for foresight in Latvia  Status

3. CONTEXT  FOTONIKA-LV project purpose: Unlocking and Boosting Research Potential for Photonics in Latvia – towards effective integration into the European Research Area  How foresight can guide achievement of the potential for photonics in Latvia?  EC competitiveness policy  Smart specialization & cluster policy  Key enabling technologies  EU cohesion policy  Latvia’s long term development strategy

4. WHAT IS FORESIGHT  Foresight addresses the problem that we are responsible for creating the future, but the future is inherently unpredictable from any single point of reference.  What makes the future unpredictable is that individual actors make decisions based largely on their personal experience and frame of reference while technological developments and environmental change result in emergent forms of social order that have never existed.  The less predictable the future, the higher the level of risk associated with decisions.  Foresight is an attempt to make the future more knowable by systematically pooling the insights of many actors with many different forms of experience and points of view to enable policy makers to anticipate emergent order and thereby make better decisions and more effective policy.

5. LOSING THE FUTURE  Nokia was the world leader in mobile phones.  Nokia put its customers at the center of its strategy and created products that met their needs, better than anyone else  Nokia did not anticipate how teenagers would «misuse» their phones and create a new, much larger market.  Nokia lost much of its market to Apple, that created the new market

6. LATVIA CAN’T AFFORD TO LOSE ITS FUTURE.  Latvia must anticipate the future to survive

7. Source – SAMI Consulting

8. FORESIGHT METHODS  SWOT analysis  Stakeholder analysis  Extrapolative forecasting including econometric models  Cross-impact analysis  Systems dynamics and other models  Scenarios, narratives and backcasting  Delphi method  Surveys  Network analysis  Key, critical technology method  Road mapping  Others……..

9. FORESIGHT IN FOTONIKA-LV  Three strategic foresight seminars  Secondments with institutes that offer foresight services:  Frauenhofer Institute for Systems Innovation – Dr. Kerstin Cuhls led foresight workshop in Riga  International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Dr. O. Balcers and Sandra Smalina

10. INTERNATIONAL FORESIGHT ACADEMY  International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria;  Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Switzerland;  The Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding, Romania;  Finland Future Research centrum at Turku University;  The Interdisciplinary Centre for Technological Analysis and Forecasting at Tel Aviv University; Israel;  Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation, Brazil The Latin American School of Social Sciences, Argentine;  Foresight Canada;  Higher School of Economics, Russia  Science & Technology Policy Institute, South Korea  FOTONIKA-LV Association of Research Institutes

11. FORESIGHT MATURITY IN LATVIA  the future is being thought about  Latvia 2030, NAP 2020 often in response to EU requirements  Foresight methods are known, but policy tends to be short term focused, driven by personal interests and ambitions of powerful individuals

12. FORESIGHT PILOT IN LATVIA  Pilot use of foresight with a photonics foresight exercise linking government, research institutes, education and business  Use the 3 foresight seminars in the FOTONIKA-LV project along with the International Foresight Academy to develop a roadmap for photonics and quantum sciences and technologies for Latvia

13. FORESIGHT PILOT PLAN  Secure participation of the Ministry of Education and Science and the Ministry of Economics in the foresight process.  Organize Foresight Seminar 1., Project kickoff to introduce the foresight program, present what is known about photonics and quantum science and technology capabilities in Latvia, and outline the Delphi survey process that follows  Conduct Delphi survey process to develop technology market outlook and to rank high potential market niches or R&D opportunities that fit capabilities in Latvia  Organize Seminar 2 to present and discuss results of the technology – market outlook followed by a Delphi survey process as input to the development of the photonics and quantum science and technologies roadmap for Latvia  Prepare roadmap document  Seminar 3. Present and discuss the Photonics and Quantum Science and Technology (PQST) Roadmap and its role in the formulation of the PQST strategic plan.  Finalize the PQST strategic plan  Present the4 PQST strategic plan to the Cluster members for their review, input and approval

14. POSSIBLE FORESIGHT OBJECTIVES  Review outlook for photonics and quantum technology markets identifying those where there is a potential matchup with capabilities in Latvia in R&D, product development, production, or marketing and sales.  Identify photonics technologies and specific market niches with high and extremely high growth potential in the 2014-2020 + timeframe.  Identify capabilities in photonics research, product development, and production in Latvia  Identify gaps in capabilities in Latvia that are needed to realize opportunities with extremely high growth potential  Identify barriers to for Latvian R&D and business, particularly SME’s, to achieve success in the identified market niches.  Develop a plan for Latvia to achieve success in high potential market niches  Where to focus RD&I,  Specific EU funding programs to target  Partnership targets to fill capability gaps to realize opportunities

15. Riga Photonics Center Šķūņu iela 4 Rīga, LV-1050 Latvia Vidvuds Beldavs Vid.beldavs-@-fotonika-lv.eu +371-2786201