2. A Prosperous Way Down Principles and Policies

3. Presentation by Betty Odum Gainesville, Florida IV BIENNIAL INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ADVANCES IN ENERGY STUDIES ECOLOGY-ENERGY ISSUES IN LATIN-AMERICA Universidade Estadual de Campinas São Paulo, Brazil June 15-19, 2004

4. For the future, here is an hypothesis with two parts: we are going down to live with fewer resources and we can be prosperous and happy.

5. This graph from a Gas and Oil Industry report shows world oil production peaking in about 2004.

6. There are no new energy sources with as much power as fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas).

7.  fossil fuel reserves (non-renewables). This is a computer model of the economy showing economic consumers using our two energy sources:  sunlight (renewables)

8. The graph shows the results from running this program.

9. This could be a view of the distant lower-energy future.

10. 20 million joules of direct and indirect sunlight are used to produce each part of this energy chain. That is the solar emergy of each component. Therefore, the emergy in 100 joules of electricity is 20 million solar emergy joules (sej).

11. SunElectricityFood, housing Energy20 E6 joules100 joules20 joules Emergy20 E6 sej Transformity 20E6sej/20E6J = 1 sej/J 20E6sej/100J = 20 E4 sej/J 20E6sej/20J = 1 E6 sej/J

12. This cartoon shows that people have the concept of two values: the energy in a person now and the energy it has taken to make him, his emergy.

13. Even Beetle Bailey is high emergy

14. Calculating emergies is a way of comparing the values of everything, from oil to wilderness.

15. National emergy values are based on calculations of flows and storages in the systems diagram.

16. Comparisons of Yearly Emergy Use of Nations

17. Comparison of Emergy per Person Ratios Among Nations State or Nation Emergy Use E22 sej/year Population E6 people Emergy Use/person E15 sej/year Canada268.030.587.0 Australia138.019.471.0 United Kingdom287.058.848.7 Russia703.0145.048.4 U.S.A.1150.0280.041.1 Switzerland25.47.235.5 Japan360.0127.028.4 Chile28.014.818.9 Saudi Arabia55.822.025.4 France144.059.824.1 Italy126.557.522.0 Germany153.083.018.4 Brazil277.0161.017.2 South Africa73.943.217.1 Portugal17.610.516.8 Argentina45.235.112.9 Uruguay3.13.29.6 India266.01029.09.5 Paraguay4.85.29.3 Mexico61.476.88.0 China917.01284.37.1 Indonesia125.0230.05.4 Bolivia1.97.82.5

18. Comparison of Emergy-Money Ratios Among Nations... NationE22 sej/yearE9 $/yearE12 sej/$ China917.0979.99.35 Paraguay4.86.37.68 India266.0442.06.03 Russia703.01200.05.90 Chile28.054.95.10 Brazil277.058.04.80 Canada268.0599.04.50 Australia138.0340.04.05 Mexico61.4186.13.30 Bolivia2.06.43.03 Uruguay3.112.22.52 Saudi Arabia55.8241.02.30 United Kingdom287.01390.02.06 Portugal17.691.51.90 Argentina45.2297.71.52 Italy126.5865.81.46 Denmark17.8123.01.45 USA1150.09940.01.16 France144.01400.01.03 Switzerland25.4270.00.95 Japan360.04500.00.80 Germany153.0209.00.73

19. In an even dollar trade the USA can buy 4.8 E12 sej from Brazil; whereas Brazil can only buy 1.2 E12 sej from the USA.

20. A loan from the USA to Brazil at 10% interest is an advantage to the USA, in emergy units, of 5.3 to 1.2.

21. How can we achieve equitable world trade?

22. w This is the way world trade seems today.

23. w Wouldn’t more equitable trade, calculated with emergy, reduce the causes of war?

24. We may go down with a crash - or

25. If we can plan ahead to come down slowly, to use our resources carefully, parts of our lifestyles can even be more pleasant.

26. Can you find the environmentally friendly lot?

27. Center for Environmental Policy Howard T. Odum Center for Wetlands University of Florida Gainesville, FL 32611

28. Waste is a big problem. It is important not to make anything so long-lasting or toxic that it can’t be reused or recycled.

29. One of the causes of global change (the greenhouse effect) is CO2 being produced by our consumer economy.

30. One advantage of fewer resources may be less waste and less pollution.