1. Kenya – Politics 2013 http://understandingthehorn.org/ Leonardo R. Arriola Associate Professor Department of Political Science University of California, Berkeley Prepared 4 March 2013 http://understandingthehorn.org/ © UC Regents 2013

2. A research puzzle These slides were prepared for a general discussion on Kenyan politics in the Spring of 2013 just before the elections and present a research puzzle: Are Kenya politics really about ethnic conflict? Read the following articles and news sites for more context and background: Mueller, Susanne D. 2008. "The Political Economy of Kenya's Crisis." Journal of Eastern African Studies 2 (2): 185-210.The Political Economy of Kenya's Crisis Branch, Daniel, and Nic Cheeseman. 2009. "Democratization, Sequencing, and State Failure in Africa: Lessons from Kenya." African Affairs 108 (430): 1-26.Democratization, Sequencing, and State Failure in Africa: Lessons from Kenya. de Smedt, Johan. 2009. "'No Raila, No Peace!' Big Man Politics and Election Violence at the Kibera Grassroots." African Affairs 108 (433): 581-98.No Raila, No Peace!' Big Man Politics and Election Violence at the Kibera Grassroots The Daily Nation elections page: http://elections.nation.co.ke/http://elections.nation.co.ke/ For most slides, there are notes. Throughout, there are hyperlinks leading to further information. © UC Regents 2013

3. Daily Nation (October 1992) © UC Regents 2013

4. BBC (March 2013) © UC Regents 2013

5. Ethnic Balancing in Politics, 1980-2000 © UC Regents 2013

7. 2002 Election © UC Regents 2013

8. 2007 Election © UC Regents 2013

9. 2013 Election © UC Regents 2013

10. Vote Buying and Electoral Violence Source: Afrobarometer (2010-2011) © UC Regents 2013

11. Vote Buying in 2002 & 2007 Source: Afrobarometer (2007 & 2011) © UC Regents 2013

12. Money underpins political relationships Politician Donor Voter © UC Regents 2013

13. Politician Donor Voter Business donors hedge: give money to multiple candidates, regardless of ethnicity or party, to ensure their influence. Money underpins political relationships © UC Regents 2013

14. Money underpins political relationships Politician Donor Voter Politicians buy votes: opposition politicians need money to induce support and turnout among voters. © UC Regents 2013

15. Money underpins political relationships Politician Donor Voter Politicians buy endorsements: opposition politicians need money for cross-ethnic endorsements from other politicians. © UC Regents 2013

16. Money underpins political relationships Politician Donor Voter Politicians buy endorsements: opposition politicians need money for cross-ethnic endorsements from other politicians. © UC Regents 2013

17. Afrobarometer survey data from Kenya (N≈2,000 respondents) Vote Buying in 2007 Most demographic factors are poor predictors of vote buying. Examples: age, sex, education level, rural vs. urban During the last national election in 2007, how often, if ever did a candidate or someone from a political party offer you something, like food or a gift or money, in return for your vote? © UC Regents 2013

18. Vote Buying in 2007 Best predictors of vote buying relate to income, behavior, and location. Unemployed status: likelihood doubles Violent act: likelihood doubles Violent district: likelihood diminishes Ethnicity: likelihood varies Province: likelihood varies Afrobarometer survey data from Kenya (N≈2,000 respondents) © UC Regents 2013

19. Predicted probability of experiencing vote buying for the “average” respondent: 36 year old male living in a rural area Vote Buying in 2007 © UC Regents 2013

20. Vote Buying across Provinces in 2007 Source: Afrobarometer (2011) © UC Regents 2013

21. Vote Buying across Ethnic Groups in 2007 Source: Afrobarometer (2011) © UC Regents 2013

22. Vote Buying across Ethnic Groups: 2002 vs. 2007 Source: Afrobarometer (2007 & 2011) © UC Regents 2013

23. Violence (1997-2012) Source: ACLED © UC Regents 2013

24. International Criminal Court International Criminal Court (ICC) charged four Kenyans with crimes against humanity Uhuru Kenyatta MP/Minister Francis Muthaura Civil Service Head* William Ruto MP/Minister Joshua arap Sang Radio Host Kenya’s Post-Election Violence in 2008 More than 1,000 killed and some 600,000 displaced in a three month period © UC Regents 2013 *Case dropped by ICC 11 March 201311 March 2013

25. Elite Organization of Violence in Kenya “The infrastructure of violence was financed and sustained mainly by local politicians and businesspeople to support costs such as transport of attackers, weapons and other logistics” - Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, On the Brink of the Precipice (PEV Report) (2008) Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, On the Brink of the Precipice (PEV Report)2008 KNCHR identified over 200 individuals who allegedly coordinated the violence, including 21 MPs, 44 businesspeople, and hosts at 5 radio stations © UC Regents 2013

26. Violence (Jan-Feb 2013) Source: ACLED © UC Regents 2013

27. Nairobi Source: Open Street Map © UC Regents 2013

28. Nairobi Source: Open Street Map © UC Regents 2013

29. Nairobi: Tweeting the Presidential Debate Source: M. Graham (2013) © UC Regents 2013

30. Multiethnic Coalitions For more on multiethnic coalitions, parties and opposition politics, see Leonardo R. Arriola, 2013. Multiethnic Coalitions in Africa: Business Financing of Opposition Election Campaigns. New York: Cambridge University Press. Multiethnic Coalitions in Africa: Business Financing of Opposition Election Campaigns https://sites.google.com/site/l rarriola/home/book https://sites.google.com/site/l rarriola/home/book © UC Regents 2013

31. CREDITS Understanding the Horn of Africa © UC Regents 2013

32. Understanding the Horn of Africa An online curriculum project of the Center for African Studies, University of California, BerkeleyCenter for African Studies This material was developed under a Title VI International Research and Studies grant from the U.S. Department of Education. However, the content does not necessarily represent the policy or views of the U.S. Department of Education, or imply endorsement by the Federal Government.International Research and Studies Principal Investigator: Leonardo Arriola Project Coordinator: Martha Saavedra Project Assistant: Tami Driver, Web Development: Kim Carl and Howie Lan Web Designer and Graphics: Casondra Sobieralski Research assistance: Chelsea Johnson and David Dow http://understandingthehorn.org/ © UC Regents 2013