Presentation on theme: "Nominations. Primaries and Caucuses When do states choose their nominee for president? Source: Joshua T. Putnam, “Whodunnit? The Actors Behind the Frontloading."— Presentation transcript:
Primaries and Caucuses
When do states choose their nominee for president? Source: Joshua T. Putnam, “Whodunnit? The Actors Behind the Frontloading of Presidential Primaries and Caucuses, 1976–2008.” Ph.D. dissertation, University of Georgia, 2010. See also frontloading.blogspot.com
Pros and Cons of the Primary and Caucus System PROS Citizens are offered another means to become involved in the political process Elects more moderate legislators Creates more competition Prevents spoiler candidates (candidates with no chance of winning who take votes away from the major candidates) CONS Disproportionate attention goes to the early caucuses and primaries Money plays too big a role in primaries and caucuses Public participation is low and unrepresentative Too much power is given to the media Open primaries are subject to manipulation by the opposite party Some debate that open primaries violate freedom of association by allowing outsiders to vote for party candidates.
States in Proportion to Media Coverage The sequential nature of state caucuses, primaries and conventions creates a chain of media events that results in more extensive coverage of earlier contests than the later ones. This map, picturing the states in proportion to their media coverage in the 1984 election, shows the importance that the media places on the early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Iowa and New Hampshire
Relationship Between Frontloading and Voter Turnout
Average Delegate Accumulation by Primary Sequence Before and After the Advent of Frontloading 120
Campaign Strategies and Tactics: Using information obtained from pollsters or political consultants, professional campaign managers develop a strategy that mixes party, issues, and the candidate's "image" (perceived personal qualities) Three strategies used by candidates that are used to gain voters. – Party-centered - appeals to the voters within a party – Issued-oriented centered - appeals focus to groups or interest groups on a particular issue at a time. – Image-oriented centered - appeals to the people based upon the personality qualities of a candidate for example leadership ability or charismatic abilities. Pollsters, Political Campaign managers, Professional Political Analysts - are people that can help you decide what strategy to use when you begin campaigning.
Campaign Strategies and Tactics: Campaign messages are disseminated to voters via the media through news coverage, candidate appearances on popular television programs, home pages on the World Wide Web, and advertising. – News - it is free, certain amount of objectiveness to the audience. Campaign managers try to set up newsworthy events that will get you exposure that will get you a sound-byte (press events - manage news cover events) on a issue to get something out. A candidate might give a speech or read a book at a school and invite the media (trying to show how they care about education). – Personal Advertising - very expensive. Buy ads on television Biggest objective - name recognition. (name will be printed through out the commercial and orally repeated a lot.) They also try to sway voters to a certain degree. They may try to discredit their candidates. (Attack ad - they attack the character or contrast ad - compares you and your opponent) – Internet advertising - Used to promote people to donate their time for their party to work in. Fund Raising Give more specific information about a candidate.
The Impact of Campaigns Campaigns have three effects on voters: Reinforcement- reinforce voters’ preferences for candidates. Activation–Voters contribute money or ring doorbells. Conversion–Convert, changing voters’ minds
Factors Which Tend to Weaken Campaigns’ Impact on Voters Selective perception–Most people pay attention to things they agree with and interpret events according to predispositions. Party identification influences voting behavior. Incumbents–Advantage of name
Sparing No Expense: The Growing Costs of Campaigns Source: Data from Center for Responsive Politics, www.opensecrets.org.
What does a realignment look like?
Electoral College 2012
How do states regulate voter eligibility?
Forms of Electoral Participation SOURCE: American National Election Studies. Graphs 6B and 6D http://www.electionstudies.org/nesguide/gd-index.htm#6. Reprinted with permission.
Turnout Increases with Age Source: Authors’ analysis of 2006 Census Bureau data.
Percentage of Turnout by Age Groups in 2000, 2004, and 2008 Elections
Political Participation: How—and How Many—People Get Involved Source: National Election Studies Cumulative File.
Why People Don’t Vote SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Survey, November 2004.
Turnout for Constitutional Amendment Elections, 1970- 2009
Nominations Campaigns Elections Voters PPT Slides 1.Nominations 2.Primaries and Caucuses 3.When do states choose their nominee for president? 4.Pros and Cons of the Primary and Caucus System 5.Leapfrogging 6.States in Proportion to Media Coverage 7.Iowa and New Hampshire 8.Relationship Between Frontloading and Voter Turnout 9.Average Delegate Accumulation by Primary Sequence Before and After the Advent of Frontloading 10.Campaigns 11.Campaign Strategies and Tactics 12.Campaign Strategies and Tactics 13.The Impact of Campaigns 14.Factors Which Tend to Weaken Campaigns’ Impact on Voters 15.Sparing No Expense: The Growing Costs of Campaigns 16.Elections 17.Electoral College 18.What does a realignment look like? 19.Electoral College Map 2012 20.Electoral College Cartoon- Old Man 21.Voters 22.How do states regulate voter eligibility? 23.Forms of Electoral Participation 24.Turnout Increases with Age 25.Percentage of Turnout by Age Groups in 2000, 2004, and 2008 Elections 26.Political Participation: How—and How Many—People Get Involved 27.Why People Don’t Vote 28.Turnout for Constitutional Amendment Elections, 1970- 2009