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GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 1 GEMS:Global Earth-system Monitoring.

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Presentation on theme: "GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 1 GEMS:Global Earth-system Monitoring."— Presentation transcript:

1 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 1 GEMS:Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data CoordinatorA.Hollingsworth(ECMWF) ProjectsLeadership Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F) Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D) AerosolO.Boucher (UK) Regional Air QualityV-H.Peuch (F) ValidationH.Eskes (NL) Global Production System A.Simmons (ECMWF), GMES Integrated Project, 12.5MEuro, 30 Institutes, 14 Countries

2 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 2 Contents of the Presentation The scientific & programmatic background to GEMS: GMES, WCRP, IGBP, IGOS, GEOSS The GEMS Project 1.Social, Scientific, Operational Motivations 2.Objectives 3.Organisation 4.Schedule 5.Issues for the operational continuation in Production team at ECMWF & Schedule Issues for the transition to operations in 2009

3 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 3 Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) Partnership The programmatic context of GEMS - GMES, WCRP, IGBP, IGOS, GEOSS GMES Integrated Projects GEOLAND MERSEA GEMS PREVIEW (WATER) (SECURITY) GEOSS Socio- Economic Benefit areas Disasters Health Energy Water Climate Weather Agriculture Ecosystems Biodiversity WMO WCRP IGBP Projects WWW GAW C GEWEX O CLIVAR P SPARC E CLIC S. BAHC LUCC IGAC ………. IGOS Themes Ocean Carbon (IGCO) Water Cycle Geo-Hazards Atmos Chem. (IGACO) Coastal Land

4 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 4 Partners the Global Observing Systems GOS/GAW, GOOS, GTOS, GCOS International agencies sponsoring the Global Obs. Systems FAO, ICSU, IOC of UNESCO, UNEP, UNESCO, WMO Committee on Earth Observation Satellites CEOS Intl. Grp. of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research IGFA International global change research programmes WCRP, IGBP The Scientific Background to GEMS Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) Partnership

5 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 5 Terrestrial carbon model Terrestrial carbon model Atmospheric Transport model Atmospheric Transport model Climate and weather fields Ecological studies Biomass soil carbon inventories Remote sensing of Vegetation properties Growth Cycle Fires Biomass Radiation Land cover /use Remote sensing of Vegetation properties Growth Cycle Fires Biomass Radiation Land cover /use Georeferenced Emissions inventories Georeferenced Emissions inventories Atmospheric measurements Atmospheric measurements Eddy-covariance flux towers Data assimilation link Ocean carbon model Ocean remote sensing Ocean colour Altimetry Winds SST SSS Ocean remote sensing Ocean colour Altimetry Winds SST SSS Ocean time series Biogeochemical pCO2 Surface observation pCO2 nutrients Water column inventories rivers Lateral fluxes Coastal studies optimized Fluxes optimized model parameters IGCO Development of Carbon Cycle Data assimilation systems Geoland GEMS ONC Remote sensing of atmos. CO2

6 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 6 IGACO Integrated Global Atmospheric Chemistry Observations

7 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 7 Motivations for GEMS Social & Operational, Science, Policy BETTER OPERATIONAL SERVICES 18,000 excess deaths in summer 2003 Europe lacks operational warnings for Meteorological / Air-quality natural disasters. GEMS will provide such warnings SCIENCE GEMS will synthesise all available data into accurate status assessments. GEMS products will facilitate study of many science questions on the sources, sinks transport, and processing of atmospheric trace constituents, GEMS will implement the assimilation elements of IGACO & IGCO TREATY ASSESSMENT & VALIDATION Conventions (Kyoto, Montreal, LRTAP) and IPCC need best estimates of sources/ sinks/ transports of atmospheric constituents. GEMS will meet the needs in a comprehensive manner, including the requirements of the GCOS Implementation Plan

8 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 8 GEMS organisation GEMS is organised in 6 projects Validation Reactive Gases Greenhouse Gases Aerosol Regional Air Quality

9 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 9 Objectives of GEMS (i): Global Operational System for Monitoring & forecasting Atmospheric Composition GLOBAL OPERATIONAL SYSTEM By 2009, a validated, comprehensive, and operational global data assimilation / forecast system for atmospheric composition and dynamics, Combine remotely sensed and in-situ data Monitor tropospheric & stratospheric atmospheric composition MONITORING & FORECASTING Forecasts & assimilations with a horizontal resolution of km, and high vertical resolution of key atmospheric trace constituents including greenhouse gases (initially including CO 2, and progressively adding CH 4, N 2 O, plus SF 6 and Radon to check advection accuracy), reactive gases (initially including O 3, NO 2, SO 2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species), aerosols (initially a 10-parameter representation, later ~ 30)

10 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 10 Objectives of GEMS (ii):-Regional Air-Quality Forecasts -Retrospective Analyses -Variational Inversion Techniques Provide initial and boundary conditions for operational regional air-quality and chemical weather forecast systems improved operational real-time air-quality forecasts a methodology for assessing the impact of global climate changes on regional air quality. Provide a retrospective analysis of all accessible in-situ and remotely sensed data on atmospheric dynamics and composition for the ENVISAT-EOS era ( ) Validation material for the project itself, A service to the wider science community (inc. GCOS). State-of-the-art variational estimates of the sources, sinks and inter- continental transports, of many trace gases and aerosols; based on the retrospective analyses, and later on operational analyses, designed to meet policy makers' key information requirements relevant to the Kyoto and Montreal protocols and to the UN Convention on Long-Range Trans- boundary Air Pollution.

11 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 11 Schedule of GEMS work at Central Site Year 1 May mo Build and validate 3 separate assimilation systems for Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol. Acquire data; build web-site Year 2 May mo Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol Make reanalyses available for validation by all partners Provide feedback to data providers Year May mo Merge the 3 assimilation systems into a unified system; Upgrade the models and algorithms based on experience Year Nov mo Build operational system, & interfaces to partners Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol Year Nov mo Final pre-operational trials Documentation & Scientific papers

12 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 12 Issues in Transitioning the GEMS project to Operational Status from 2009 onwards. The GEMS project intends to be scientifically ready and technically ready to transition the global and regional GEMS systems to operational status by mid New institutional arrangements are needed to fund operations, incl. human resources, computing & telecomms. fund sustained research support make and share observations, both real-time and archival Disseminate products, both real-time and archival Actors in creating such institutional arrangements include European Commission, EEA, ESA National Environment Agencies Nat.Met.Services, ECMWF, EUMETSAT & EUMETNET Scientific and technical partners in GEMS, PROMOTE, and related GMES activities. Satellites: chemistry observations post-2010 are an issue.

13 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 13 Amended ECMWF Convention: CONVINCED that such a centre can make valuable contributions to developing the scientific basis for environmental monitoring… Article 2 - The purposes, objectives and activities 1. The primary purposes of the Centre are the development of a capability for medium-range weather forecasting and the provision of medium-range weather forecasts to the Member States. 2. The objectives of the Centre shall be: a) to develop, and operate on a regular basis, global models and data-assimilation systems for the dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Earth's fluid envelope and interacting parts of the Earth-system, with a view to: i. preparing forecasts by means of numerical methods; ii. providing initial conditions for the forecasts; and iii. contributing to monitoring the relevant parts of the Earth- system; b) to carry out scientific and technical research directed towards improving the quality of these forecasts;

14 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 14 Schedule for GEMS Kick-off Meeting Monday morningPlenary Monday early-afternoon Contractors Committee Cross-cut: Surface Fluxes & Emissions Cross-Cut: Web Cross-Cut: CTM Interfaces Monday late-afternoon Greenhouse Gases Reactive Gases Aerosol Regional Air Quality Tuesday morningGreenhouse Gases Reactive Gases Aerosol Regional Air Quality Tuesday afternoonPlenary

15 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 15 Good Luck! The whole world is watching us

16 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 16 a

17 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 17

18 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 18 GEMS Data Service & MARS Requirements Data Service Requirements: Archive & Display 3 separate reanalyses (GHG, GRG, AER) for ~5 years each Global Agreed list of variables Archive Boundary conditions:1 common frame & 1 user-frame (1 per user) MARS Requirements All observations All still-useful experiments All reanalyses

19 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 19 RAQ Requirements on Web RAQ needs a Data archive, Plot display, Verification capability for daily forecasts 10 regional models to MM(?) days for NN variables? for LL levels?

20 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 20 GEMS at ECMWF The team is in place at ECMWF and work has begun on all aspects of GEMS Preparations are well in hand for satellite data acquisition. The IFS now has provision for advecting many new variables, needed for gases and aerosols. Active collaboration underway with the main modelling partners The FP_5 COCO project on CO2 has prepared much of the assimilation science for the greenhouse gas project. The FP_6 HALO project has helped define the requirements for surface emissions.

21 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 21 Contents of the Presentation Motivations & Objectives Organisation of GEMS in Projects 1.Greenhouse Gas Deliverables, partners, data 2.Aerosol Deliverables, partners, data 3.Reactive Gas Deliverables, partners, data 4.Regional Air Quality Deliverables, partners, data 5.Validation 6.Production team at ECMWF & Schedule A flying start Issues for the transition to operations in 2009

22 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 22 Contents of the Presentation Motivations & Objectives Organisation of GEMS in Projects 1.Greenhouse Gas Deliverables, partners, data 2.Aerosol Deliverables, partners, data 3.Reactive Gas Deliverables, partners, data 4.Regional Air Quality Deliverables, partners, data 5.Validation 6.Production team at ECMWF & Schedule A flying start Issues for the transition to operations in 2009

23 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 23 (1a) development of RT models for observation operators AIRS, IASI, CrIS, Sciamachy, OCO observations 4D VAR data assimilation system (1b) definition of background error covariance matrix CO 2 analysis data (1c) building of surface flux parameterization/ model Greenhouse Gas Activities CO 2 Atmosphere Land Ocean Synthesis Validation

24 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 24 Greenhouse Gas Deliverables Daily assimilation of all available satellite data (Advanced sounders, OCO, GOSAT) on CO 2, CO, CH 4, N 2 O Monthly / Seasonal variational inversions of both in- situ (e.g. flask) and satellite data to provide estimates of surface fluxes The same technology can be used to estimate surface fluxes of other atmospheric constituents

25 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 25 GEMS Greenhouse Gas Partners 1.ECMWFEurope 2.The Met OfficeUK 3.Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/CNRSF 4.Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de lEnvironnement F- Coordinator 5.Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, JenaD 6.JRC, Institute for Environment and SustainabilityEC

26 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 26 Contents of the Presentation Motivations & Objectives Organisation of GEMS in Projects 1.Greenhouse Gas Deliverables, partners, data 2.Aerosol Deliverables, partners, data 3.Reactive Gas Deliverables, partners, data 4.Regional Air Quality Deliverables, partners, data 5.Validation 6.Production team at ECMWF & Schedule A flying start Issues for the transition to operations in 2009

27 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 27 Motivations for the Aerosol project Aerosols are:- An emerging issue for NWP. Neglect of aerosol is the largest error in model clear sky radiation calculations (50W/m**2) Neglect of aerosol can lead to large errors (0.5K) in the forward calculations for advanced sounders. The aerosol element of GEMS is likely to be the first GEMS element included in the operational suite An important issue for public health (e.g. forthcoming EU directive on PM2.5) GEMS variational estimates of aerosol sources may be of help for regulatory purposes An important issue for climate Aerosols may mitigate the impact of greenhouse gases through global dimming?

28 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 28 AEROSOL: Deliverables Model and assimilate global aerosol information Instruments: MERIS, MODIS x 2, MISR, SEAWIFS, POLDER, then VIIRS on NPP, VIIRS & APM on NPOESS, Initially 10 parameters =>30 parameters Global Monitoring Global Forecasts Boundary info. for Regional models

29 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 29 GEMS Aerosol Partners 1.ECMWFEurope 2.The Met OfficeUK-Coordinator 3.Laboratoire d'Optique Atmosphérique, Unversité de Lille F 4.LSCE/ CEA, Orme des MerisiersF 5.Max-Planck Institut fuer Meteorologie, HamburgD 6.Finnish Meteorological Institute, HelsinkiFin 7.DWD Meteorological Observatory, HohenpeissenbergD 8.Service dAéronomie, UPMC/CNRS, Paris F 9.Dept. of Physics, National University of Ireland, GalwayIrl 10.Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, BrusselsB

30 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 30 Saharan dust in the Mediterranean on 24 April 2005 was associated with apparent changes in Sea Surface temperatures

31 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 31 Contents of the Presentation Motivations & Objectives Organisation of GEMS in Projects 1.Greenhouse Gas Deliverables, partners, data 2.Aerosol Deliverables, partners, data 3.Reactive Gas Deliverables, partners, data 4.Regional Air Quality Deliverables, partners, data 5.Validation 6.Production team at ECMWF & Schedule A flying start Issues for the transition to operations in 2009

32 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 32 REACTIVE-GASES:Deliverables & Approach Deliverables Monitor the global 3D / temporal distributions, transports, sources/sinks of key species such as O 3, NO 2, SO 2, CH 2 O.. Forecast Global Chemical Weather, including UV-B Initial and boundary conditions for regional Chemical Weather and Air-Quality Forecasts. Modelling & Assimilation Approach Tight coupling of the assimilating weather model (IFS) and a Chemical Transport Model (CTM ) to maintain good advection, and good chemical profiles. Copy frequently (2-hours?) the chemical fields from the assimilating model IFS => CTM (Chemical Transport Model) Copy frequently (2-hours?) the Production and Loss rates from CTM => IFS

33 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 33 GEMS Reactive Gas Partners 1.ECMWFEurope 2.Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Observatoire Midi-PyrénéesF 3.Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, HamburgD-Coordinator - 4.Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch InstituutNL 5.Belgisch Instituut voor Ruimte-Aeronomie, BrusselsB 6.Finnish Meteorological InstituteF 7.Danmarks Meteorologiske InstitutDK 8.Deutscher Wetterdienst, HohenpeissenbergD 9.Institut für UmweltphysikUniversität BremenD 10.Service dAéronomie, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, ParisF 11.LCAE, University of Athens, H 12.Météo-France, CNRM, ToulouseF

34 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 34 Data Flow and Responsibilities in GEMS Reactive Gas project Assimilation System CTMs Validation data User Services ECMWF Satellite data ESA EUMETSAT NASA DLR … KNMI ECMWF BIRA IUP-UB SA-UPMC NHRF METEO-FR MPI-M ECMWF KNMI METEO-FR BIRA SA-UPMC Initial Fields Production and Loss rates FMI DMI MPI-M METEO-FR KNMI CNRS-LA SA-UPMC DWD NHRF NUIG RAQ Models MPI-M METEO-FR KNMI METEO-FR ARPA SIM ISAC FRIUUK UPMC MPI-M … GAW NOAA NILU METEO-FR NASA … Courtesy: M.Schultz

35 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 35 Contents of the Presentation Motivations & Objectives Organisation of GEMS in Projects 1.Greenhouse Gas Deliverables, partners, data 2.Aerosol Deliverables, partners, data 3.Reactive Gas Deliverables, partners, data 4.Regional Air Quality Deliverables, partners, data 5.Validation 6.Production team at ECMWF & Schedule A flying start Issues for the transition to operations in 2009

36 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 36 Regional Air Quality Objectives Evaluate the impact on Regional Air-Quality forecasts of global information on Long-Range Transport of Air Pollutants. Initiate routine production at, & cooperation between, national air quality forecast centres for data access, skill evaluation & forecast comparisons. Improve continental to regional scale air quality models, the statistical post- treatment of forecasts, & explore multi-model ensemble approaches. Improve our understanding of the health impacts of air quality and incorporate air quality forecast information into a health forecast. Assess the effects of global variability on regional air quality and provide background for policy evaluation and evolution.

37 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 37 GEMS Regional Air Quality Partners 1.The Met OfficeUK 2.CNRS: LMD / LA / LISA F 3.Max-Planck Institut für MeteorologieD 4.Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch InstituutNL 5.Finnish Meteorological InstituteFin 6.Danmarks Meteorologiske InstitutDK 7.Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Service dAéronomieF 8.LCAE, University of AthensH 9.Météo-France, CNRMF - Coordinator 10.ARPA Emilia Romagna, Servizio Idro-Meteorologico I 11.Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate/ CNRI 12.Meteorologisk Institutt OsloN 13.Rheinisches Institut für Umweltf. Universität KölnD 14.Inst. Nat. de lEnvironnement Industriel et des RisquesF 15.Czech Hydrometeorological InstituteCZ 16.Irish Environmental Protection AgencyIrl 17.Polish Institute of Environmental ProtectionP 18.Imperial College LondonUK

38 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 38 GEMS Validation Partners 1.Max-Planck Institut für BiogeochemieD 2.Kon. Ned. Meteorologisch InstituutNL-Coordinator 3.Danmarks Meteorologiske InstitutDK 4.Dept.Physics, Nat.Univ.Ireland –GalwayIRL (Mace Head)

39 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 39 Contents of the Presentation Motivations & Objectives Organisation of GEMS in Projects 1.Greenhouse Gas Deliverables, partners, data 2.Aerosol Deliverables, partners, data 3.Reactive Gas Deliverables, partners, data 4.Regional Air Quality Deliverables, partners, data 5.Validation 6.Production team at ECMWF & Schedule A flying start Issues for the transition to operations in 2009

40 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 40 GEMS Team at ECMWF ModellingGreenhouse gases1 Reactive gases1 Aerosol AssimilationGreenhouse gases1 Reactive gases1 Aerosol1 Chemical Transport Models & PREPIFS 1 4 OperationsObservations & Archives1 Web / Verification/ Access1 2 Coordination11 TOTAL9.5

41 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 41 Contents of the Presentation Motivations & Objectives Organisation of GEMS in Projects 1.Greenhouse Gas Deliverables, partners, data 2.Aerosol Deliverables, partners, data 3.Reactive Gas Deliverables, partners, data 4.Regional Air Quality Deliverables, partners, data 5.Validation 6.Production team at ECMWF & Schedule A flying start Issues for the transition to operations in 2009

42 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 42 R.Engelen Flight data kindly provided by H. Matsueda, MRI/JMA Current status of off-line CO 2 calculations - comparisons with Japanese flight data good results for May 2003 less favourable results for January 2003 (problem with detection of thin cirrus?).

43 Fig. 3b Five –day forecast, showing particulates at 1000HPa, starting from a climatological distribution of Desert Dust (Benedetti, Morcrette, Hortal…)

44 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 44 Ozone Hole 1 Oct 2003 in ECMWF operational assimilation, with very simple Chemistry a ) Ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere assimilation on 1 October 2003; b) Vertical cross section of ozone partial pressure along 8W in a); the partial pressure of ozone is almost zero at 15km, over a wide area. Sharpness due to MIPAS c) Comparison of (independent) ozonesonde profile data at Neumayer (70.7S 8.3W) with the assimilated field; the agreement is remarkable. a b c Courtesy: A.Dethof

45 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 45 Contents of the Presentation Motivations & Objectives Organisation of GEMS in Projects 1.Greenhouse Gas Deliverables, partners, data 2.Aerosol Deliverables, partners, data 3.Reactive Gas Deliverables, partners, data 4.Regional Air Quality Deliverables, partners, data 5.Validation 6.Production team at ECMWF & Schedule A flying start Issues for the transition to operations in 2009

46 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 46 Importance for GEMS of real-time and archival access to In-situ observations The GEMS project needs (real-time and archival) access to a wide variety of in-situ observations for Model development and assessment Forecast verification Cross-validation of other observations, esp. satellite data Data assimilation Data monitoring to assess long-loop stability and performance Some key data can be made available with good calibration in real-time Other key data need very careful calibration and so archival access is needed Access will require data sharing agreements between EMI & National Environment Agencies Access to Canadian and US hourly-reporting data presents no problem

47 END thank you for your attention!

48 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 48 BACK-UP SLIDES

49 Fig. 2b Five –day forecast, showing particulates at 1000HPa, starting from a climatological distribution of Continental Particulates (Benedetti, Morcrette, Hortal…)

50 Fig. 4b Five –day forecast, showing particulates at 1000HPa, starting from a climatological distribution of Sea Salt (Benedetti, Morcrette, Hortal…)

51 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 51 CO 2 Comparison with flight data from Japan Air Lines Flight data kindly provided by H. Matsueda, MRI/JMA

52 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 52 CO 2 Comparison with NOAA/CMDL flight profiles at Molokai, Hawaii Flight data kindly provided by Pieter Tans, NOAA/CMDL Dots: flight data; Solid: ECMWF Dashed: Prior

53 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 53 Table Satellite Data on Greenhouse Gases to be used in GEMS Agency MissionInstrumentsSpecies Data Volume/day of satellite life (MB/day) ESAENVISAT SCIAMACH CO 2, N 2 O, CO, CH 4 11 ESAENVISAT MIPAS CH4, N2O 2 EUMETMETOP-1IASICO 2, N 2 O, CO, CH NASAAQUAAIRSCO 2, N 2 O, CO, CH NASATERRAMOPITTCO, CH 4 64 NASAAURATESCO, CH 4 16 NASAAURAHIRDLS & MLSCO, N 2 O, CH 4 4 NASAOCO CO2 80 NESDISNPPCrISCO 2, N 2 O,CO, CH 4 280

54 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 54 Table Satellite Data on Reactive Gases to be used in GEMS AgencyMissi on Instrum ents SpeciesData Volume per day of satellite life (MB/day) ESAENVIS AT SCIAMAC HY O 3, NO 2, SO 2, CH 2 O 53 ESAENVIS AT GOMOSO 3, NO 2 2 ESA ENVIS AT MIPAS O 3, NO 2 2 ESAERS-2GOME O 3, NO 2, SO 2, CH 2 O 19 EUMET METOP -1 GOME-2 O 3, NO EUMETMSGSEVIRI O 3 10 EUMET METOP -1 IASI O NASAAQUAAIRS O NASA Earthpro be ADEOS Meteor- 3 Nimbus- 7 TOMSO3O3 4 NASAAURAOMI O 3, NO 2, SO 2, CH 2 O 152 NASAAURAHIRDLSO 3, NO 2,2 NASAAURAMLSO 3, SO 2,2 NASAAURATES 152 NESDIS NOAA- 16 SBUV-2O3O3 1 NESDISNPPCrIS O 3 280

55 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 55 Modelling of Tropospheric Chemistry needs a full chemistry package and good surface emissions! Initially we shall bootstrap by coupling GCM & CTM Simulation of Ozone mixing ratio (nmol/mol) at 850 hPa for August 3, 2003, 1500 UTC as simulated with MOZART-2 CTM. Courtesy: G.Brasseur

56 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite & in-situ DataA.Hollingsworth ECMWF Council, June 2005Slide 56 The Objectives of IGACO defining a feasible strategy for deploying a global atmospheric chemistry observation system with comprehensive coverage of key atmospheric gases and aerosols establishing a system for integration of ground-based, airborne and satellite air chemistry observations using atmospheric models making the integrated observations accessible to science, responsibles for environmental policy development and weather / environmental prediction centres To initiate a process leading to the implementation of globally coordinated observation and integration programmes within 10 years, by:


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