1. PREV AIR : An operational system for air quality monitoring and forecasting www.prevair.org presented by Laurence Rouïl

2. PREV AIR : www.prevair.org A cooperative system for large scale air quality forecasting and mapping over Western Europe and France ; developed in 2003 upon an initiative of the Ministry of Ecology Operational purposes : in France, since 2004, public information related to pollution episodes (threshold exceedances) can be driven by forecasts (not only observations) INERIS ADEME CNRS Météo France Public organization under the supervision of the Ministry of Ecology National Agency of Environment National Research Centre National Meteorological services Builds up and hosts the prev air system AQ expertise for the Ministry Builds up and hosts the NRT database AQ expertise for the Ministry Model development : CHIMERE Model development : MOCAGE + meteorological forecasts

3. Architecture of the PREVAIR Modelling System 3D Chemistry Transport Models... CHIMERE / IPSL-CNRS-INERIS MOCAGE / METEO-France open system to other models... … Driven by meteorological forecasts AVN / NCEP global data (+ MM5 higher resolution forecasts) ARPEGE, ALADIN Other input data Emissions inventory (EMEP) BC (MOZART) Land-use (GLCF data base) NRT observations data from local AQ monitoring organizations (AASQA) ; bilateral cooperation with other countries Chemical forecasts Low and high resolution meteorological forecasts Numerical AQ forecast data Forecast s (maps) BASTER Analysis (maps) Observation s (maps) Emilia Romagna (ARPA- EMR) Swiss (NABEL/SAEFL) Germany (UBA)... A S Q AA

4. The CHIMERE Model Set-Up in PREVAIR Domains Over EuropeOver France Horizontal resolution: 0.5°x 0.5° 0.15° x 0.1° Vertical resolution: 8 levels from surface pressure up to 500 hPa Meteorological forecast data AVN / NCEP for initialisation and boundary conditions MM5 higher resolution forecasts ARPEGE Chemical scheme MELCHIOR (47 species, 125 reactions) Aerosol module 7 species (PPM, SOA, nitrate, sulphate, ammonium, Water Contents, dust) 25 reactions (aqueous and heterogeneous phase) See http://euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere.

5. The MOCAGE Model Set-Up in PREVAIR Domains » Global Model / Over Europe / Over France Horizontal resolution: 4°x 4° 0.5° x 0.5° 0.1° x 0.1° Vertical resolution: 47 levels from surface pressure up to 5hPa Meteorological forecast data ARPEGE and ALADIN Chemical scheme RACMOBUS (118 species, 381 reactions) No aerosol module

6. Available at D+0, 00 h LT Daily peak and averaged concentration maps D+0, D+1, D+2 Pollutants: O3, NO2 (France and Europe) particulate matter (Europe) O3, peak forecast (µg/m 3 ) 20040729 D+0 O3, peak forecast (µg/m 3 ) 20040729 D+2 O3, peak forecast (µg/m 3 ) 20040729 D+1 PREVAIR Outputs : Daily Forecasts

7. Modelled concentrations corrected with observations: Observations collected in real-time for 150 stations Statistical adaptation using a kriging method Available at J+0 with updates if near real time observations available Feasibility study for the PM PREV AIR Outputs : Ozone Analyses for the Day Before and the Current Day July 31, 2004 O3 simulation (µg/m 3 )O3 corrective field (µg/m 3 ) 03 simulation corrected by observations (µg/m 3 )

8. PREV AIR Outputs : French maps of near real time observations Daily mean concentrations of PM10 at surface measured on the 12 of September 2004 maps of daily max and mean measured concentrations : for O 3, NO 2, PM2.5 and PM10 using observations made between 0h and t hour by hour updating if data available (pollution events) for J and the 6 previous days

9. PREVAIR Outputs : Scores PM10 scores

10. PREVAIR Outputs : Scores (ii)

11. PREV AIR Outputs : Annual Budgets Ozone, averaged peak (µg/m 3 ) during summer 2003 Ozone, # of hours of exceedance of the 180 µg/m 3 threshold during summer 2003 Ozone, # of hours of exceedance of the 240 µg/m 3 threshold during summer 2003

12. PREV AIR Outputs : Numerical Forecast Data PREVAIR numerical data Extraction over user-defined domains Available through the Internet for AQ related institutions (user accounts) Applications 3D data: BC for local AQ simulations : ESMERALDA (Ile-de-France area), AERES (PACA region), … 2D data: for local AQ monitoring and forecasting (interpolation, statistical modelling) Feed-back from PREVAIR users Meetings with AQ networks for system improvement Day-by-day debriefing about forecasts

13. Towards a european framework…. Bilateral cooperation for data exchange (NRT) and simulated results evaluation Involvement in the GMES programs: PROMOTE (ESA) : demonstrator (phase 1), definition of air quality services related to forecasting and mapping (phase 2), definition of a cooperative framework (with other european AQ teams) GEMS (UE) : Contribution to the Air Quality part

14. Developments planned (1) July 2005 : Implementation of data assimilation methods of ozone ground level measurements in the PREVAIR system Improvement of forecasts and mapping. August 2005-2006 : feasibility study related to the operational acquisition of ozone data from LIDARs or of satellite data in the PREVAIR system. Improvement of the whole system taking into account 3D information End 2005 : Feasibility of a cooperative exchange network related to near real time AQ data as this is done for France in the PREVAIR system Near real time air quality maps in other countries?

15. Developments planned (2) Implementation of nested methods to couple the models MOCAGE (applied over the whole Europe) and CHIMERE (applied over the western part of Europe) in order to obtain more realistic boundary conditions for PREVAIR forecasts. Case study to generate « ensemble » forecasts over France and Europe issued from the results given by MOCAGE and CHIMERE (multi-models approach) Conclusions on the possibility, relevance, and feasibility of the implementation of a common and european air quality forecasting system in cooperation with the other PROMOTE partners

16. www.prevair.org Thank you for your attention!