1. 1 The GEMS production systems and retrospective reanalysis Adrian Simmons

2. 2 ERA-40 ENVISAT cal/val and assimilation experience Development of analysis of CO 2 from AIRS radiances Development of fast RT models Other developments of the ECMWF forecasting system GEMS production systems and reanalysis will build on several ECMWF activities, including:

3. 3 A reanalysis from September 1957 to August 2002 Based on cycle 23r4 of ECMWF forecasting system - operational from June 2001 to January 2002 Six-hourly 3D-Var analysis - operations uses 12-hourly 4D-Var T159 horizontal resolution (~125km grid) - operations uses T511 (~39km grid) Uses full 60-level resolution The ERA-40 data assimilation system

4. 4 Trend and variability in two-metre temperature over land CRUTEM2v from Jones and Moberg (2003) Linear trend: CRUTEM2v 0.171 O C/decade ERA-40 0.169 O C/decade ERA-40

5. 5 Linear trend in two-metre temperature ( O C/decade) CRUTEM2v from Jones and Moberg (2003)ERA-40

6. 6 Trend and variability in lower stratospheric temperature Linear trend: MSU-4- 0.39 O C/decade ERA-40- 0.30 O C/decade NCEP- 0.82 O C/decade MSU-4 data analyzed by Mears et al. (2003) ERA-40 equivalent from Ben Santer, PCMDI

7. 7 Total ozone (following Pascal Simon, Météo-France) Blue: ERA-40 (TOMS and SBUV data assimilated 1979-1988 and 1991-2002) Red: Ground- based measurements (NOAA/CMDL)

8. 8 Equatorial specific humidity Model simulation 10 100 1 hPa One year ERA-40 10 100 1 hPa One year

9. 9 Humidity and rainfall over the tropical oceans Year ERA-40 24 - 36h forecast 24h forecast SSM/I retrievals from Remote Sensing Systems

10. 10 ERA-40 production system was based on ECMWFs prepIFS software for preparing and managing experimentation with its forecasting system prepIFS is available to Member-State users of the ECMWF forecasting system ERA-40 system was used remotely by Reading University and KNMI for studies of data denial Updated system will be available to GEMS partners GEMS funding will enable ECMWF to provide better support for external users than possible for ERA-40 Remote use of data assimilation system

11. 11 An interim reanalysis - Start next year, T159L60 (L91?), latest version of forecasting system - Run from 1991 (tbd) onwards, continued in close to real time - Basis for future developments (including GEMS) Experimentation - To validate new versions of forecasting system - High-resolution 4D-Var analyses for specific cases - Observing system experiments Development of observational data base and processing software An extensive new reanalysis in 2008 or beyond Reanalysis plans beyond ERA-40

12. 12 TOMS With MIPAS No MIPAS Total ozone 1 October 2003

13. 13 26 Aug 200311 Sept 200322 Sept 2003 SondeWith MIPASNo MIPAS Ozone profiles at Neumayer (71S, 8W)

14. 14 With MIPAS No MIPAS ECMWF TOMS Ozone in the tropics 1 August 2003

15. 15 CO 2 assimilation from AIRS - Stratosphere

16. 16 Monthly mean distribution for May 2003 is shown on the left, and the upper boundary for the error estimate is shown on the right. CO 2 assimilation from AIRS - Troposphere

17. 17 Standard RTTOV software has been adapted to include variable CO 2 RTIASI has been extended to include variable CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O and CO; work on aerosols is planned RTTOV is being developed to handle limb-sounded radiances from MIPAS (as part of development for a capability for direct assimilation of these radiances) Fast RT code development

18. 18 91-level model with improved resolution of tropopause and stratopause/mesosphere, plus work on gravity-wave parametrization and treatment of biases in data assimilation – to address stratospheric problems Work on humidity analysis, assimilation of rain-affected microwave radiances – to reduce spin-down Model has been extended to handle extra fields Work to extend J b is planned for 2004 Work on parametrization of convection and vertical diffusion to enable tracer transfer is planned for 2004 Forecasting-system development