Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

A.Hollingsworth Slide 1 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data – GEMS Anthony Hollingsworth ECMWF.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "A.Hollingsworth Slide 1 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data – GEMS Anthony Hollingsworth ECMWF."— Presentation transcript:

1 A.Hollingsworth Slide 1 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data – GEMS Anthony Hollingsworth ECMWF With thanks to A.Benedetti, A.Dethof, R.Engelen, J-J.Morcrette, J.Flemming, M.Razinger, S.Serrar,A.Simmons, M.Suttie

2 A.Hollingsworth Slide 2 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Scope of the Presentation Overall Objective: GEMS will exploit current huge investments in satellite data to extend NWP Modelling and Data Assimilation capabilities to atmospheric composition global and regional scales Provide a whole new range of services for GMES Global Deliverables Regional Deliverables Progress since Spring 2005 start of GEMS Schedule for Transition to Operations in 2009 Sustainability of GEMS: Satellite Provision

3 A.Hollingsworth Slide 3 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation GMES: Motivations for GEMS TREATY ASSESSMENT & VALIDATION Conventions (Kyoto, Montreal, LRTAP) and IPCC need best estimates of sources/ sinks/ transports of atmospheric constituents. BETTER OPERATIONAL SERVICES Improved forecasts: excess deaths in summer 2003 heatwave:- 18K in France, at least 33K in western Europe. SCIENCE GEMS will synthesise all available satellite & in-situ data into accurate status assessments, and will meet many needs of the GCOS Implementation Plan

4 A.Hollingsworth Slide 4 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation GEMS FAQs Fundamental Objective: Extend the modelling and data-assimilation methods of Numerical Weather Prediction to atmospheric composition incl. Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol GMES Integrated Project: 4 years M, 30 Institutes, 14 Countries Web-site Management –CoordinatorA.Hollingsworth(ECMWF) –Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F) –Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D) –AerosolO.Boucher (UK) –Regional Air QualityV-H.Peuch (F) –ValidationH.Eskes (NL) –Global Production System A.Simmons, H.Boettger, (ECMWF),

5 A.Hollingsworth Slide 5 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Environmental Concerns have triggered $25B for New satellite missions in N.AmericaEurope / Collabs.Asia /Collabs. JASON-1 TERRAENVISATADEOS-II AQUAMSGCOSMIC SSMI/SMETOPGPM AURAGOCE CALIPSOADM CLOUDSAT CRYOSAT OCO SMOS Red: in orbit Black: Planned GEMS will use all these satellite resources

6 A.Hollingsworth Slide 6 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Organisation of the GEMS Project GEMS is organised in 6 projects Validation Reactive Gases Greenhouse Gases Aerosol Regional Air Quality

7 A.Hollingsworth Slide 7 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation (iii) GEMS: a distributed system for operations and research The GEMS system -Distributed system for Research and Operations. -Many Regional Systems -Many Global CTMs - A Global Weather system

8 A.Hollingsworth Slide 8 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation GEMS Global Deliverables: -Operational System for Atmospheric Composition -Retrospective Analyses -Operational mapping of CO2 sources/sinks Global Operational System By 2009, at ECMWF, an operational global monitoring/ forecast system for atmospheric composition, combining all remotely sensed and in-situ data to create 3 dimensional global distributions [50km (H), 1km (V), 6 hours] of key atmospheric trace constituents: greenhouse gases (initially including CO 2, and progressively adding CH 4, N 2 O, plus SF 6 and Radon to check advection accuracy), reactive gases (initially including O 3, NO 2, SO 2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species), aerosols (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30) Retrospective Analysis Provide a retrospective analysis of all accessible in-situ and remotely sensed data on atmospheric dynamics and composition for the ENVISAT-EOS era ( ) Sources, Sinks and Transports Monthly/ seasonal maps of the sources, sinks and inter-continental transports, of CO2, O3 and many other trace gases and aerosols, based on in-situ & satellite data

9 A.Hollingsworth Slide 9 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation GEMS Regional Deliverables: -Regional Air-Quality Forecasts - Improved services for health sector - Mapping of regional sources / deposition Regional Air Quality: initial & boundary conditions Provide initial and boundary conditions for operational regional air-quality and chemical weather forecast systems Improved monitoring and forecast services for the health sector UV exposure and skin cancer Heat stress and drought Acute pollution events Respiratory and Cardiovascular disease Future Vector borne and zoonotic disease (cf. malaria experience) Regional estimation of sources/sinks of CO2, O3, aerosol…

10 A.Hollingsworth Slide 10 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation a Consistent detection by ESA and NASA instruments of CO2 anomalies over N.America during summer 2003, - in lower troposphere from Schiamachy (left) - in upper troposphere from AIRS (right) - probably due to suppression of photosynthesis by the drought Barkley, Monks & Engelen (to appear, GRL, 2006) 2003 May June Jul Sept

11 A.Hollingsworth Slide 11 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Courtesy J-J.Morcrette

12 A.Hollingsworth Slide 12 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Ozone Hole 1 Oct 2003 in ECMWF assimilation a ) Ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere assimilation on 1 October 2003; b) Vertical cross section of ozone partial pressure along 8W in a); the partial pressure of ozone is almost zero at 15km, over a wide area. Sharpness due to MIPAS c) Comparison of (independent) ozonesonde profile data at Neumayer (70.7S 8.3W) with the assimilated field; the agreement is remarkable. a b c Courtesy: A.Dethof

13 A.Hollingsworth Slide 13 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation ECMWF Schedule to operational transition of GEMS Year 1 May Aug 2006 Build and validate 3 separate assimilation systems for Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol. Acquire data; build web-site Year 2 Aug Aug 2007 Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol Make reanalyses available for validation by all partners Provide feedback to data providers Year Aug Jan 2008 Merge the 3 assimilation systems into a unified system; Upgrade the models and algorithms based on experience Year Jan Nov 2008 Build operational system, & interfaces to partners Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol Year Nov May 2009 Final pre-operational trials Documentation & Scientific papers

14 A.Hollingsworth Slide 14 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Time lines of committed and likely missions Time Lines in for committed operational missions & likely research missions of importance to GEMS activities Greenhouse Gases Reactive Gases Aerosol

15 A.Hollingsworth Slide 15 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Greenhouse Gas Provision

16 A.Hollingsworth Slide 16 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Aerosol Provision

17 A.Hollingsworth Slide 17 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Reactive Gas (UTLS & Air-Quality) Provision

18 A.Hollingsworth Slide 18 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Perspectives on GEMS satellite provision Sustainability of GEMS products, based on satellite provision Greenhouse gases (GHG): Given METOP (2006) & 2008/9 OCO launches, GHG products should be sustainable throughout the period Aerosol (AER): Given 2009/10 launch of VIIRS on NOAAs NPP, AER products will be sustainable throughout the period Global Reactive Gases (GRG) Given launches of METOP (2006) and NPP (2009/10) launches, GRG Stratospheric Ozone products will be sustainable throughout the period. No committed Air-Quality mission beyond ENVISAT & AURA Actions for European scientists Press for European Air-Quality missions: ESA by 2015, EUMETSAT by 2025 Urge NASA to extend the lifetime of EOS (TERRA, AQUA, AURA) as far as possible – each was launched with 15 years consumables. Urge NASA to extend the lifetime of other A-train missions, + GLORY +OCO Help US scientists persuade current and future US administrations to fund further NASA and NOAA missions.

19 A.Hollingsworth Slide 19 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation END thank you for your attention!

20 A.Hollingsworth Slide 20 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Contents of the Presentation Overall Global Objectives Specific Objectives Progress since Spring 2005 start 1.Data issues 2.Model 3.Assimilation 4.First 4D-Var results Schedule to operational transition in May 2009 Review of Satellite Provision

21 A.Hollingsworth Slide 21 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Early results since the May 2005 start Data Issues Increased WMO involvement in Chemical Weather Data acquisition proceeding well, with considerable cooperation from the space Agencies (ESA,EUMETSAT, NASA, NOAA) Modelling Generic capability in the model to advect many (~100) species In-line parametrisations implemented for Greenhouse gases & Aerosol Surface fluxes specified climatologically (CO2) & dynamically (Aerosol) Year-long test runs with specified meteorology and free-running chemistry 4D-VAR (Four-dimensional variational assimilation) 3 separate assimilation systems have been built First assimilations being assessed

22 A.Hollingsworth Slide 22 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation GEMS Member State Participation by Institute and Project CountryGreenhouse GHG Reactive GRG Aerosol AER Production PRO Regional RAQ Validation VAL B BIRARMIB Cz CHMI D MPIBGMPIM, DWD,UB MPIM,DWDMPIM, FRIUUK MPIBG DK DMI F CNRS, LSCECNRS, SA,MET.FR CNRS, LSCE, SA CNRS, SA MET.FR, INERIS Fin FMI Hellas NKUA INT ECMWF. JRC ECMWF Irl NUIGEPAINUIG It ARPA, ISAC NL KNMI Nor MET.NO Pol PIEP UK UKMOICSTM, UKMO

23 A.Hollingsworth Slide 23 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation GEMS: a distributed System for Operational Air Chemistry Monitoring and Forecasting Observations Global Data Assimilation System Global Chemical-Weather Forecast System Users of Global Information Global CTM 1 Regional Data Assimilation System I Regional Chemical-Weather Forecast System I Users of Regional Information Global CTM N Regional CTM I Flow of Products & Information

24 A.Hollingsworth Slide 24 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Flow of Research Experimentation GEMS: a distributed System for Research on Air Chemistry Monitoring and Forecasting Observations Global Data Assimilation System Global Chemical-Weather Forecast System Researchers on Global Air Chemistry Global CTM 1 Regional Data Assimilation System I Regional Chemical-Weather Forecast System I Researchers on Regional Air chemistry Global CTM N Regional CTM I

25 A.Hollingsworth Slide 25 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Carbon dioxide from AIRS Tropospheric (clear-sky) CO 2 analysis from COCO FP5 project, compared with JAL/MRI measurements April 2003 May 2003 August 2003 October 2003

26 A.Hollingsworth Slide 26 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Comparisons with surface CO 2 measurements from NOAA/CMDL network – Seasonal cycle From model run with meteorological fields corrected every 12 hours, and specified climatological surface fluxes of CO 2

27 A.Hollingsworth Slide 27 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation ECMWF model north-south CO2 gradients compared to surface flasks Comparisons between CMDL surface flasks and the free-running ECMWF model show good agreement for the north-south gradients. Southern hemisphere model values are slightly too low (missing biomass burning??) Courtesy R.Engelen & S.Serrar Jan 2004 Aug2004

28 A.Hollingsworth Slide 28 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation GEMS Aerosol Analysis departures (obs-model) for MODIS aerosol optical depth at 0.55 microns, 12UTC 1 August 2003 Courtesy A. Benedetti

29 A.Hollingsworth Slide 29 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Analysis departures (obs-model) for AOD at 0.55 microns Single analysis cycle for 12 UTC 1 August 2003

30 A.Hollingsworth Slide 30 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation MODIS Image shows Saharan dust advected north over Europe on 5 May 2006 Courtesy R.Engelen

31 A.Hollingsworth Slide 31 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Review of satellite provision Key uncertainties in satellite provisions Uncertain implications of cost overruns in NOAAs NPP/NPOESS program NASAs Earth Observation budget for the next decade is very uncertain ESAs priority is uncertain for chemistry in Earth Explorer and Sentinel Programmes Concerns Greenhouse Gases Aerosol Reactive Gases

32 A.Hollingsworth Slide 32 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation (i) De-scoped NPP / NPOESS programme Details of the de-scoped NPP / NPOESS programme as presented by DoD, NOAA, NASA to the Nunn- McCurdie hearing House Science Committee 6 June 2006

33 A.Hollingsworth Slide 33 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Revised NPP/ NPOESS programme (i) NPP ( Launch not before late-2009, in the PM orbit) VIIRS, CrIS, ATMS OMPS (nadir only? ~ SBUV + TOMS)) C-1 (launch in PM orbit) VIIRS CrIS ATMS CERES OMPS-Nadir SEM SARSAT (Search and Rescue Sensor) ADCS (Argos-like data collection system) C-2 (launch in AM orbit) VIIRS Microwave imager/sounder SARSAT Reliance for the mid-AM orbit coverage will be on Metop; No NPOESS platforms are planned for mid-AM orbit; If needed, there remains the option of deploying further DMSPs (i.e. one already built and in storage) in mid-AM orbit instead of the AM orbit

34 A.Hollingsworth Slide 34 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Revised NPP/ NPOESS programme (ii) C-3 (launch ~ in PM orbit, available no earlier than 2018) VIIRS Microwave imager/sounder CrIS ATMS OMPS-Nadir SEM SARSAT ADCS C-4 (launch currently planned for in AM orbit. Available no earlier than 2020) VIIRS Microwave imager/sounder SARSAT

35 A.Hollingsworth Slide 35 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Status of the orphaned NPOESS Secondary Instruments for Climate, Oceanography…… CMIS: The current work on the instrument is "terminated. ATMS will be the microwave sounder on C-1. There will be a process of solicitation for a "less capable" microwave imager/sounder available for C-2 and beyond. It is unclear what the main differences will be between this "replacement" instrument and CMIS. The new version will likely not have the capability for soil moisture observations. Reliance will be on Metop and DMSP for the near- to medium-term for ocean wind-speed and direction. APS: Reliance for aerosol observations for the medium-term will be with Glory (launch approx ) A mitigation strategy for beyond Glory is yet to be developed. TSIS: Reliance for solar irradiance for the medium-term will be with Glory (launch approx ) A mitigation strategy for this observation beyond Glory is yet to be developed. OMPS-Limb: Will not be flown. No mitigation plan mentioned. (OMPS-Nadir *is* still included - in the PM orbit.) ERBS: In place of ERBS, the CERES instrument (from EOS?) will fly on C-1. No certain plan for after that (so not listed on anything but C-1 above.) SESS: Instead of SESS, the SEM instrument (from POES?) will be used, and will fly on the PM orbit, starting with C-1. Radar Altimeter : No altimeter will be flown on NPOESS. There will be the reliance on future Navy mission for altimetry. No clear plan yet.

36 A.Hollingsworth Slide 36 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Accommodation of the orphaned NPOESS Secondary Instruments for Climate, Oceanography…… The NPOESS bus will have the capability (i.e. physical space) for the secondary sensors (APS, TSIS, OMPS-Limb, ERBS, SESS, Altimeter). The NPOESS program will plan and fund for integration of the instruments within the NPOESS program, but only if the instruments are provided from "outside the program" (i.e. some other agency or international partner pays for the instrument.)


Download ppt "A.Hollingsworth Slide 1 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data – GEMS Anthony Hollingsworth ECMWF."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google