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Flood Loss Assessment APFM methodology

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1 Flood Loss Assessment APFM methodology
Regional Programme on Disaster Risk Reduction in South East Europe Training workshop on flood risk assessment 27 September – 1 October 2010 Istanbul, Turkey Flood Loss Assessment APFM methodology Tommaso Abrate Climate and water Department World meteorologicalorganization

2 Purposes of an economic assessment
Assess the overall deviation of economic activities from the “normal” course as a result of the flood

3 Why an economic assessment?
Assessing net benefits derived from using a flood plain Design of appropriate policies and strategies Reconstruction planning Rescue and emergency coordination

4 Various phases of flood assessment
Flood risk assessment and policy reform In-depth evaluation Early recovery assessment Rapid assessment Time Event

5 Types of floods Flash floods Riverine flooding

6 Sorces of flood losses data
Actual data collected from historical events Direct measurements Water marks, witnesses, etc Potential losses based on stage – damage relationships

7 Main impact factors Depth of inundation
Flow velocity (esp. flash floods) Duration of the inundation Timing Sediment and pollution load

8 Stage – damage curve for content and structural damages

9 Velocity and depth relation as a damage factor

10 Simulated dyke break: depth

11 Terminology Damages: related to the physical damage of public and private assets (infrastructures, houses, vehicle, etc.) caused by the contact with water Losses: broader meaning, including secondary and tertiary losses, including intangible ones (human lives) and “things that could have been”

12 Terminology (ctd) Direct losses Indirect losses Tangible losses
Intangible losses

13 Flood losses Tangible direct losses Tangible indirect losses
Intangible losses Damages to: Buildings Content of building Infrastructures (road, bridges) Crops and animals Loss and disruption of: Agricultural production Industrial production Communication Health and education Utility supplies (électricity, gas) Loss of life Physical injuries Loss of heritage sites Primary Stress, Physical and psychological trauma Water borne diseases Increased mortality Secondary Salinization Black out Fire Loss of added value Contamination of water supply Traffic congestion Food shortages Loss of income Homelessness Loss of livelihoods Permament loss of unisured possesion Braking of community ties due to displacement or risettlements Enhanced rate of property decay Long term structural damages Some business are bankrupt Reduce GDP Tertiary (long term)

14 Actual vs potential losses

15 Rapid assessment during flooding
Objectives: Collect factual information for emergency response and management Identifying the administrative level concerned (local, national, international) Limited time availability, evolving situation Casualties, displaced people Inundation map Flooded assets Expected evolution of the event Assets at risk Status of lifelines (access roads, hospitals, electricity, water and food supply, etc.)

16 Early recovery assessment
Purpose: guiding the recovery process and it priorities designing financial mechanisms Evaluation of coping capacity Identification of management mistakes Focus on tangible and direct losses and on actual costs and damages

17 Early recovery assessment (ctd)
Public and private losses Who's bearing the losses? Magnitude with respect to coping capacity,locally and nationally Social aspects of the losses

18 In-depth assessment

19 Annual flood losses

20 Disaggregation of losses by sector

21 Conclusions Collect data before the flood event
Involve local communities There is not a universal formula for all contexts Develop an agreed procedure Collect data on losses and on who has to bear them Compare losses and benefits Institutional framework for data collection

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