1. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Moving Toward Sustainable Energy Systems: Exploring Global Pathways to a Common Destination Rolf Nordstrom, Great Plains Institute October 24, 2006 Minneapolis, MN Upper Midwest Energy Transition Roadmap

2. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Powering the Plains Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Great Plains Institute

3. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Overview 1.Background 2.Evolution of Regional Energy and Climate Roadmap 3.CO 2 Scenario Results, Roadmap Strategies, and Next Steps 4.Conclusions Hydrogen bus photo courtesy of Manitoba Energy Development Initiative

4. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Great Plains Institute Mission: To help usher in a renewable and carbon-neutral energy system by mid-century. The region we serve We are a 501 (c) 3 nonprofit based in Minneapolis.

5. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders We bring together “odd bedfellows”...  Energy and technology executives  Farmers  Elected and government officials  Environmental advocates  University researchers and officials GPI and PTP-led U.S. and Canadian delegation to Europe, 2003

6. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders We work with them to develop consensus on... 1.Public policy 2.Technology demonstration 3.Research critical to commercialization 4.Education of key audiences Hydrogen Hybrid Bus Recently Cold-weather tested in Winnipeg

7. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Current Programs 1. Powering the Plains (PTP) 2. Biomass Working Group 3. Coal Gasification Working Group 4. Upper Midwest Hydrogen Initiative

8. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders What is Powering the Plains? Public-private coalition dedicated to harnessing full energy potential of our region. PTP seeks to: 1.Add value to energy and agriculture while mitigating the risks of climate change; and 2.Help the jurisdictions it serves capitalize on their energy strengths.

9. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders What is the Legislators Forum? Legislators Forum ManitobaMinnesota North Dakota South Dakota Bi-partisan coalition of 32 legislative leaders who meet once/year to develop policy consensus on key regional issues PTP has presented to legislators for the past four years

10. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Legislators Forum delegates called for regional energy transition that: “Relies on clean energy production and carbon sequestration” Maximizes Upper Midwest’s comparative advantages: –Renewable wind, biomass & hydro –Hydrogen from renewables & coal –Experience with coal gasification & geologic storage of CO 2 –Carbon sequestration in soils, wetlands, and woodlands –Marketing renewable and carbon credits Legislators Forum in Winnipeg Paddleboat on the Red River

11. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Resolution asked PTP to... 1.“Prepare preliminary scenarios, goals and measurable targets outlining a potential regional energy transition; 2.Identify legislative measures and institutional arrangements needed to implement such a transition roadmap inter-jurisdictionally over time.” Presented Roadmap’s Executive Summary to Legislators in May 2006

12. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Developing a Regional Roadmap

13. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Technical Basis for Roadmap 1.PTP partnered with U of MN research team 2.Developed model to analyze options to meet energy demand AND reduce CO 2 emissions 80% from 1990 levels by 2055 3.Initial focus on power sector 4.No sacred cows: Efficiency and all energy types considered

14. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders The Past: CO 2 Emissions by Fuel & Sector, 1960 and 2000 OilCoal 19602000

15. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders The Future: Projected CO 2 Emissions 20% of 1990 level

16. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Research Points to Four Urgent Priorities 1.Build new and re-power existing generation with low & zero-CO 2 technologies in power sector; 2.Implement geologic and terrestrial carbon sequestration; 3.Deploy low and zero carbon fuels & technologies in transportation sector; and 4.Increase efficiency in electricity and transportation sectors.

17. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Three Scenarios for Achieving Energy & Climate Objectives* Scenario 1 –High energy efficiency with modest coal and renewables Scenario 2 –High renewables with modest coal and energy efficiency Scenario 3 –High coal with CCS and modest renewables and energy efficiency  Modeled conservatively, using only known technologies and costs over 50 yrs CCS = carbon capture and sequestration for permanent storage of CO 2

18. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Efficiency: Least-Cost Option & Climate Solution Scenarios Cost of Power80% CO2 Reduction (US$/MWh) Total (US$ billions) BAU $33.911,008No Efficiency* $48.77 926Yes Renewables$45.681,036Yes IGCC w/CCS$44.331,049Yes BAU = Business as usual *High efficiency scenario reduces projected demand 40 percent over BAU; high renewables and IGCC/CCS scenarios reduce demand 25 percent over BAU. IGCC w/CCS = Coal using integrated gasification-combined cycle technology with capture & geologic storage of CO 2

19. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Main Scenario Conclusions 1.We can meet electricity needs AND reduce CO 2 emissions 80% by 2055 without significant additional cost. 2.This requires significant efficiency and low- and zero-carbon energy development over 50 years.

20. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Portfolio Approach Needed: 7 Key Roadmap Strategies 1.Invest in energy efficiency until generation options cost less. 2.Accelerate commercialization and deployment of advanced coal technologies with CCS. 3.Maximize economic and reliable integration of wind power on the grid & harness wind energy for non-electric applications;

21. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Key Roadmap Strategies 4.Launch cellulosic biorefinery industry for liquid fuels, biogas, bio-products & power from biomass. 5.Advance low-impact hydro development as part of a broader energy portfolio.

22. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Key Roadmap Strategies 6.Build renewable & carbon- neutral hydrogen production and fuel cell industry. 7.Expand electric transmission and other energy delivery infrastructure to enable substantial increases in low & zero-carbon energy.

23. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders PTP’s Next Steps on Roadmap 1.Hold community meetings for citizen input on roadmap this fall. 2.Finalize roadmap by January 07. 3.Present roadmap to state & federal policy-makers next year. 4.Pursue implementation of near- term opportunities in roadmap. 5.Expand scenario model and roadmap to include transportation sector in 2007.

24. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Conclusions 1.No silver bullets: All low/zero-carbon resources & efficiency needed. 2.Energy efficiency is the best return on investment: Makes broader energy transition affordable. 3.Renewables & coal/CCS: region’s best economic opportunity: Potential to supply North American markets with low-carbon energy. 4.Transition is technically and economically viable: But only if we begin measurable, incremental changes now and sustain them over a 50-year timeframe.

25. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Collaboration with India? Toward accelerated commercialization of low- zero- C02 technologies in both countries We share similar coal types. Could share information & expertise on: Coal gasification with carbon capture and sequestration Underground gasification? Broader energy collaborative? (Coal biochar, advanced wind, biofuels, hydrogen, etc.)

26. Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Thank You For more information, please contact: Brad Crabtree, Program Director Great Plains Institute, (701) 647-2041, bcrabtree@gpisd.net and www.gpisd.net bcrabtree@gpisd.netwww.gpisd.net or Rolf Nordstrom, Program Director Great Plains Institute. (612) 278-7156, Rnordstrom@gpisd.net Rnordstrom@gpisd.net