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Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future February 2007 Steven Specker President and CEO.

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Presentation on theme: "Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future February 2007 Steven Specker President and CEO."— Presentation transcript:

1 Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future February 2007 Steven Specker President and CEO

2 2 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Growing scientific findings and public opinion that GHG emissions are contributing to climate change… Priority of 110th Congress … U.S. responsible for 1/4 of worldwide CO 2 emissions… Electric utilities responsible for 1/3 of U.S. CO 2 emissions… Agreement that technology solutions are needed… …But What is Feasible??? Context

3 3 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Total U.S. Electricity Generation: 2005 EIA 3826 TWh

4 4 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Total U.S. Electricity Generation: 2030 EIA Base Case 5406 TWh

5 5 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. U.S. Electricity Sector CO 2 Emissions Base case from EIA “Annual Energy Outlook 2007” –includes some efficiency, new renewables, new nuclear –assumes no CO 2 capture or storage due to high costs  Using EPRI deployment assumptions, calculate change in CO 2 relative to EIA base case

6 6 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Technology Deployment Targets TechnologyEIA 2007 Base CaseEPRI Analysis Target* EfficiencyLoad Growth ~ +1.5%/yrLoad Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020– GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) None Widely Available and Deployed After 2020 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) None 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter Distributed Energy Resources (DER) (including distributed solar) < 0.1% of Base Load in 20305% of Base Load in 2030 EPRI analysis targets do not reflect potential regulatory and siting constraints. Additional economic modeling in progress

7 7 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. EIA Base Case % reduction in base load by 2030 Benefit of Achieving Efficiency Target TechnologyEIA 2007 ReferenceTarget EfficiencyLoad Growth ~ +1.5%/yrLoad Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020– GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCSNoneWidely Deployed After 2020 PHEVNone 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER< 0.1% of Base Load in 20305% of Base Load in 2030

8 8 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. EIA Base Case 2007 Benefit of Achieving Renewables Target 50 GWe new renewables by 2020; +2 GWe/yr thereafter TechnologyEIA 2007 ReferenceTarget EfficiencyLoad Growth ~ +1.5%/yrLoad Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020– GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCSNoneWidely Deployed After 2020 PHEVNone 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER< 0.1% of Base Load in 20305% of Base Load in 2030

9 9 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. EIA Base Case 2007 Benefit of Achieving Nuclear Generation Target 24 GWe new nuclear by 2020; +4 GWe/yr thereafter TechnologyEIA 2007 ReferenceTarget EfficiencyLoad Growth ~ +1.5%/yrLoad Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020– GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCSNoneWidely Deployed After 2020 PHEVNone 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER< 0.1% of Base Load in 20305% of Base Load in 2030

10 10 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. EIA Base Case 2007 Benefit of Achieving Advanced Coal Generation Target 46% efficiency by 2020, 49% efficiency by 2030 TechnologyEIA 2007 ReferenceTarget EfficiencyLoad Growth ~ +1.5%/yrLoad Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020– GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCSNoneWidely Deployed After 2020 PHEVNone 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER< 0.1% of Base Load in 20305% of Base Load in 2030

11 11 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. EIA Base Case 2007 Benefit of Achieving the CCS Target After 2020, all new coal plants capture and store 90% of their CO 2 emissions TechnologyEIA 2007 ReferenceTarget EfficiencyLoad Growth ~ +1.5%/yrLoad Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020– GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCSNoneWidely Deployed After 2020 PHEVNone 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER< 0.1% of Base Load in 20305% of Base Load in 2030

12 12 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. EIA Base Case 2007 Benefit of Achieving PHEV and DER Targets 5% shift to DER from base load in 2030 PHEV sales = 10% by 2017; 30% by 2027 TechnologyEIA 2007 ReferenceTarget EfficiencyLoad Growth ~ +1.5%/yrLoad Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020– GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCSNoneWidely Deployed After 2020 PHEVNone 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER< 0.1% of Base Load in 20305% of Base Load in 2030

13 13 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. EIA Base Case 2007 CO 2 Reductions … Technical Potential* TechnologyEIA 2007 ReferenceTarget EfficiencyLoad Growth ~ +1.5%/yrLoad Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020– GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCSNoneWidely Deployed After 2020 PHEVNone 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER< 0.1% of Base Load in 20305% of Base Load in 2030 * Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible.

14 14 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Total U.S. Electricity Generation: 2030 Advanced Technology Targets 5401 TWh

15 15 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Total U.S. Electricity Generation: 2030 EIA Base Case 5406 TWh

16 16 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Key Technology Challenges 1.Smart grids and communications infrastructures to enable end-use efficiency and demand response, distributed generation, and PHEVs. 2.A grid infrastructure with the capacity and reliability to operate with 20-30% intermittent renewables in specific regions. 3.Significant expansion of nuclear energy enabled by continued safe and economic operation of existing nuclear fleet; and a viable strategy for managing spent fuel. 4.Commercial-scale coal-based generation units operating with 90+% CO 2 capture and storage in a variety of geologies. The U.S. electricity sector will need ALL of the following technology advancements to significantly reduce CO 2 emissions over the coming decades:

17 17 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Backups

18 18 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Generation Portfolio: Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh CF Nuclear PC IGCC Biomass Rev. 01/16/07

19 19 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Generation Portfolio: Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh Nuclear Wind Biomass IGCC w/capture PC w/capture Rev. 01/16/07

20 20 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Efficient and Smart Electrical Devices Communications Infrastructure Innovative Regulation and Rates Innovative Markets Four Building Blocks Intelligent Electricity Delivery Infrastructure DER AC PHEV


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