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Toward a Sustainable Future Name of Conference, Event, or Audience Date Presenter’s Name www.synapse-energy.com | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All.

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Presentation on theme: "Toward a Sustainable Future Name of Conference, Event, or Audience Date Presenter’s Name www.synapse-energy.com | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All."— Presentation transcript:

1 Toward a Sustainable Future Name of Conference, Event, or Audience Date Presenter’s Name www.synapse-energy.com | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved.

2 2 Overview Study funded by the Civil Society Institute and performed by Synapse Energy Economics Focuses on the U.S. electricity sector Compares a “business as usual” future to a scenario in which all coal-fired plants and nearly a quarter of the nation’s nuclear plants are retired by 2050. Reliance on energy efficiency and renewable resources is increased, while natural gas use is lower than under business as usual.

3 Methodology Business as Usual (BAU) scenario based on the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) 2011 Annual Energy Outlook (AE0) A transition to energy efficiency and renewable energy is compared to BAU The Transition Scenario relies on technologies that are commercial today Cost assumptions based on the AEO and a broad review of the literature Analysis assumes implementation of newly proposed EPA regulations Analysis performed on a regional basis (using 10 regions) www.synapse-energy.com | ©2008 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 3

4 Electricity Generation www.synapse-energy.com | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 4 Electricity use grows by 0.9% annually under BAU. Use falls an average of 0.1% per year in the Transition Scenario due to enhanced energy efficiency nationwide. Efficiency assumptions based on current best practices.

5 The Generating Fuel Mixes www.synapse-energy.com | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 5

6 Generating Capacity in 2050 in the Transition Scenario www.synapse-energy.com | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 6 Without coal (and with less nuclear) regional power systems are more flexible. Gas-fired combined-cycle combustion turbines (CCCTs) and combustion turbines (CTs) help to integrate variable generation.

7 Mercury Emissions in the Two Scenarios www.synapse-energy.com | ©2008 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 7

8 SO2 Emissions in the Two Scenarios www.synapse-energy.com | ©2008 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 8

9 Nox Emissions in the Two Scenarios www.synapse-energy.com | ©2008 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 9

10 CO 2 emissions in the Two Scenarios www.synapse-energy.com | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 10 Electric sector CO 2 emissions rise 28% under BAU. They fall 81% in the Transition Scenario.

11 Water Impacts in the Two Scenarios www.synapse-energy.com | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 11 Water Consumption at Power Plants Water Withdrawals at Power Plants Water withdrawals fall dramatically in both scenarios due to cooling system retrofits assumed under BAU. Water consumption rises under BAU due to retrofits (more water is lost in evaporative cooling), but it falls significantly in the Transition.

12 Electric Sector Natural Gas Use www.synapse-energy.com | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 12 Natural gas use is lower than BAU in all years of the study period. In 2050, gas use is below BAU by 3.7 quadrillion Btu per year, or 28%.

13 Cost analysis www.synapse-energy.com | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 13 Net Annual Costs (billion 2010$) The Transition Scenario costs less through most of the study period. The net present value (NPV) of the 40-year stream is a savings of $83 billion, discounted at 4.8%. Savings are small relative to total industry costs.

14 Key drivers of cost findings Under BAU: New nuclear energy is expensive (assumed to be 14.5 ¢/kilowatt hour (kWh)). New coal plants are costly too (10.5 ¢/kWh using AEO assumption) As a comparison, energy efficiency is estimated between 2010-2020 to be 4.7¢/kWh and onshore wind 7.4 to 9.3 ¢/kWh. Energy from existing coal becomes more costly as well, due to higher coal prices and environmental control retrofit costs. www.synapse-energy.com | ©2008 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 14

15 Key drivers of cost findings (cont.) The Transition Scenario: Captures cost-effective efficiency opportunities. Relies on lower cost renewable resources first (e.g wind), solar photovoltaic (PV) technology later, after costs have come down. With the retirement of significant coal-fired capacity, the utilization of remaining coal units increases, reducing their cost per kWh. The $83 billion in savings realized in the Transition Scenario does not include direct subsidies, the costs of carbon capture and sequestration, or savings from reduced impacts on public health. www.synapse-energy.com | ©2008 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 15

16 Other benefits Over $100 billion in environmental retrofit costs is avoided by retiring coal plants. Avoided health costs are roughly $450 billion equivalent to over 55,000 fewer premature deaths. (However, these savings are not included in the cost/savings analysis of the Transition Scenario.) 3.1 million new job-years (over 300,000 jobs) created in building and operating efficiency and renewable energy plants between 2011 and 2020. Broader economic analysis is required to assess full employment impacts. www.synapse-energy.com | ©2008 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 16

17 Other Benefits (cont.) Adequate reserve margins are sustained in each region of the country to maintain reliable electric service. Reducing reliance on baseload coal and nuclear plants frees up transmission capacity for more wind and solar resources. www.synapse-energy.com | ©2008 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 17


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