1. Introduction Andrea Castelletti Politecnico di Milano NRM 08/09 L01 Indo -delta

2. 2 Will water be the oil of 21st century? Will the water shape this new century, as oil did the last one? Lester Brown, How Water Scarcity Will Shape the New Century Earth Policy Institute

3. 3 Salt Water 98% Fresh Water 2% Some data Worldwide distribution: 98% salt water 2% fresh water Surface waters (lake and rivers) are just 0.01% of the total freshwaters Groundwater 12% RIvers & Lakes 0.01% Ice 87%

4. 4 Some data Every year 7 milion people die from water-related deseases. While the world's population tripled in the last century, water consumption has grown six-fold. 19002000 Population Consumption

5. 5 Some data Predictions forecasted that 50% of the world population will be affected by water scarcity by 2025. 30% of the world population faces water crisis today Water consumption in developed countries is more the double than in developing ones. AmericaN Europe Ex URSS Asia AmericaS Africa 20042025 Satisfied Thirsty

6. 6 Water demand accounts for 70% of water use Competition among agriculture and the other economic sectors Rivers run dry before reaching the sea Yellow River Nile Gange Colorado ….. Irrigation Agriculture 70% Industrial 22% Domestic 8%

7. 7 The Colorado river delta

8. 8 An example of competition and its effects

9. 9 An example of competition and its effects the shrinking of Aral Sea Since 1957 Aral Sea has lost three quarter of its volume (from 1075 to 54 km 3 ). The old harbour town of Muinak () today lies 87 Km from the shoreline

10. 10 Little Aral

11. 11 An example of competition and its effects the Aral Sea Since 1957 Aral Sea has lost three quarter of its volume (from 1075 to 54 km 3 ). The old harbour town of Muinak () today lies 87 Km from the shoreline

12. 12 The Aral Sea Vozrozhdeniye

13. 13 Not only inter-sectoral competition: trans-national river basins Trans-national river basin collect 60% of the world freshwater.

14. 14 European trans-national river basins

15. 15 Water wars Cooperation among States is required in trans-national river basins. Without cooperation, competition for water may lead to frictions and raised political tensions that may result in violent disputes. Since 1950 approximately 25% of disputes have been over water and 37 times degenerated into military actions.

16. 16 Recent disputes are Nile, Jordan, Tigris-Euphrates, Mekong, Gange. Water wars

17. 17 River Jordan

18. 18 River Nile

19. 19 Tigris-Euphrates

20. 20 What can we do?.... Improve the quality and quantity of water for human and environmental uses without creating conflicts. The water volume is constant. New water can not be “produced” in significant volumes and at acceptable costs (annual runoff 34×10 12 m 3 ). Neither it can be further withdrawn.

21. 21 Large dams Allow re-allocating water resources in time and space Nowadays, 54% of freshwater is withdrawn, further withdrawals are not possible. More than 38.000 in 1994 catching nearly 16% of the total runoff.

22. 22 “improbable solutions” …

23. 23 What can we do ?.... Improving the management of water resource available; re- allocating water between neighbouring regions and/or economic sectors. How? 1) Rationalizing consumptions (acting on demand). 2) Making the management more efficient (acting on supply).

24. 24 What can we do?..... Integration A new paradigm (IWRM, IRBM) must be developed for taking decisions that take into account all the issues and the stakeholders in an integrated way... 1)Multiple Users. 2)Inflow Uncertainty. 3)Complexity of the Uses. integration Physical issues: hydrological, climatological, ecological,… Non-physical issues: technical, sociological, economical, administrative, legal The 3 “U” Management must consider the whole river basin

25. 25 All the stakeholder points of view should taken into consideration. Stakeholders should be involved in decision making. A new paradigm (IWRM, IRBM) must be developed for taking decisions that take into account all the issues and the stakeholders in an integrated way.... and these should be taken in a participatory way. Decisions should be negotiated among the stakeholders What can we do?..... Participation

26. 26 Layout of the course How should the course be interpreted? How is it organized? Lectures (AC) [48 hours] Real Case Studies (you and AC) [12 hours] Computer-based tutorials (SG) [40 hours] Couse schedule http://home.dei.polimi.it/castelle/teaching.html

27. 27 Course material TEXTBOOKS theory R.Soncini Sessa, A. Castelletti, E.Weber, Integrated and Particpatory Water Resources Management. Theory. 2007. Elsevier practice R.Soncini Sessa, F. Cellina, F. Pianosi, E.Weber, Integrated and Particpatory Water Resources Management. Practice. 2007. Elsevier http://home.dei.polimi.it/castelle/teaching.html WEB SITE These pages will house lecture notes, slides, code, URLs, etc., as they become available.

28. 28 Main Reading IPWRM.THEORY Introduction

29. 29 Further Readings Brown, L., How water scarcity will shape the new century. Water Science and Technology 43 (4), 17–22, 2001 http://www.earth-policy.org/Transcripts/Transcript1.htm Wolf, A., Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Water Systems, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., 2002. P. McCully, Silenced Rivers, Zed Books, 2001