1. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) and Remaining Risk Safety Enhancements North Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team Bangkok, Thailand January 2007 North Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team Bangkok, Thailand January 2007 Kyle Olsen – Glenn Michael

2. COMMERCIAL AVIATION SAFETY TEAM (CAST) 2020 Safety Plan Status December 7, 2006

3. 39 6 2 47 Safety Enhancements 39 Complete 08 Underway Risk Reduction Estimated To Date 65.0 % 2020 Plan Risk Reduction Estimated 70.9 %

4. 2020 CAST SAFETY PLAN – 47SE; 39 Complete; 6 Underway 1 15.1 2 15.0 3.5 4 1.1 5.4 6 7.9 7 7.9 8 7.9 9.8 10 16.4 11 3.4 12 5.3 13.8 14 5.7 15 9.2 16.7 17 0 18 1.5 19 0.1 20 3.6 21 1.5 23 7.4 2424R2 2.4 25 6.0 26 2.3 27 8.8 28 5.0 29 1.9 30R1 0.7 31 12.2 32 0 3434R1 0 39 0 40 0 46 1.6 47 1.2 49 1.5 50 2.6 53 2.7 52 0 51 0 55 1.7 59 0 60 1.5 78 0 84.8 85 1.2 COMPLETEON TRACKIN QUESTIONLATE JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level Complete except for measurement 120 0

5. 2020 CAST SAFETY PLAN – WORKING SEs (Total Plan - 47SE; 39 Complete; 08 Underway) ON TRACKIN QUESTIONLATE JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level 120 0 7 7.9 24R2 2.4 30R1 0.7 34R1 1.5 39 4.0 47 1.2 53 4.2

6. Late Safety Enhancements Safety Enhancements Individual Risk Reduction –30R1 Human Factors and Automation 0.7 –47 CRM Training for Tower Controllers 1.2 NEEDING MEASUREMENT –27 Risk Assessment 8.8 –31 AMT Ground and Simulator Training 12.2 –49 SOP’s for Ground Operations 1.5 –78 Cabin Injury Reduction During Turbulence 0.0

7. Study of Remaining Risks Background Joint Implementation Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

8. HUMAN FACTORS IN OPERATIONS & MAINTENANCE Carry-on Baggage Child Restraint Passenger Interference CABIN SAFETY IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS GENERAL AVIATION Loss of Control Weather Survivability Aeronautical Decisionmaking Controlled Flight Into Terrain Approach and Landing COMMERCIAL AVIATION Controlled Flight Into Terrain Loss of Control Weather Uncontained Engine Failures Runway Incursion Passenger Seat Belt Use Runway Incursions Safer Skies Turbulence

9. Copyright © 2006 Boeing. All rights reserved. ׀ 9 Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction APPROVED PLAN Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 Resource Cost ($ Millions) Risk Reduction Total Cost in $ (Millions) 20072020 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements Completed $ $ $ $ $

10. Copyright © 2006 Boeing. All rights reserved. ׀ 10 CFIT, Approach-and-Landing, and Loss-of-Control Major Accidents Western-Built Commercial Jets CFIT, Approach-and-Landing, and Loss-of-Control Major Accidents Western-Built Commercial Jets CFIT accident rate Approach-and-landing accident rate Loss-of-Control accident rate Year Major Accidents per million departures 3 year moving average (CFIT ) 3 year moving average (Approach and landing) 3 year moving average (Loss of Control ) Source: Ascend, Boeing * 1 January through 1 September 2006 ** Worldwide departure/rates are estimated through August 31, 2006. Departure data not available for Eastern-Built Aircraft

11. Copyright © 2006 Boeing. All rights reserved. ׀ 11 All Regions Combined Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide (2007 Implementation Values) Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Risk Eliminated Total CFIT LOC-I SCF- PP SC F-NP Ice Midair Risk Remaining Portion of Risk (percent) 1987-2001 Equivalent Part 121 Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents

12. Study of Remaining Risks Results Joint Implementation Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

13. Remaining Risk Cargo Icing Midair Maintenance

14. Status of RR SEs 24 SEs and 11 R&D Projects were developed by RR JSITs –JIMDAT has evaluated the 24 SEs and comments by CAST Members have been addressed. –The JIMDAT recommends 18 SEs for G level approval. 1 SE is recommended for CAST approval in support of international activities 4 SEs are recommended to be retained as Safety Enhancements Reserved for Future Implementation (SERFI) 1 SE was eliminated by the JIMDAT –R&D projects have yet to be evaluated Planned action for February JIMDAT

17. Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1996 through 2005 Accidents per million departures United States and Canada 0.4 Latin America and Caribbean 3.2 Europe 0.6 China 0.23 Middle East 2.7 Africa 9.7 Asia 1.9 Oceania 0.0 (Excluding China) JAA - 0.6 Non JAA – 1.2 C.I.S. 1 1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. World 1.03

18. Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1996 through 2005 Accidents per million departures United States and Canada 0.4 Latin America and Caribbean 3.2 Europe 0.6 China 0.23 Middle East 2.7 Africa 9.7 Asia 1.9 Oceania 0.0 (Excluding China) JAA - 0.6 Non JAA – 1.2 C.I.S. 1 CAST 65 SEs 39 complete 26 in work 76% reduction PAAST CFIT and ALAR ESSI 35 SEs JAA 11 SEs EASA 62% reduction COSCAP UEMOA (late 2005) COSCAP CIS Specific CIS Projects COSCAP NA, SA, SEA 27 SEs in work 60% reduction 1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. World 1.03 COSCAP BA (late 2005) COSCAP AM COSCAP GS (2006)

20. SE-165 Midair TCAS Policies and Procedures Prevent midair collisions by requiring flightcrews to follow TCAS Resolution Advisories (RA’s), establish procedures for TCAS range setting and requiring that TCAS-capable simulators and flight- training devices are used for training TCAS responses and Maneuvers. Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

21. SE-164 Midair TCAS Installation Worldwide installation of TCAS in all aircraft of 33,000 pounds or greater max takeoff weight. ICAO requirement for aircraft of 5,700kg Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

22. SE-121 Cargo Standard Operating Procedures Reduce cargo-related accidents and incidents by publishing and enforcing clear, concise and accurate standard operating procedures (SOP), and training the rationale behind those procedures Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

23. SE-125 Cargo Hazardous Materials - HazMat Reduce hazmat related accidents and incidents develop and implement by regulators, manufacturers (of packaging material) and shipping companies a multi- tier system to identify and safely process undeclared hazardous material. Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

24. SE-129 Regulation & Policy Compliance, Enforcement and Restricted Operations Regulators should improve their legal processes for compliance, enforcement and operational restrictions. Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

25. SE-130 Cargo Regulation & Policy - Oversight Regulators should develop/enhance and implement a system that ensures appropriate inspector coverage for all airlines, sub-contracting, and leasing operations and assign highly-experienced inspectors to operators that require the most oversight Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

26. SE-131 Cargo Safety Culture Reduce cargo-related accidents and incidents by encouraging a culture that enhances operational safety. Safety culture can be enhanced by a safety management system (SMS). Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

27. SE-136 Icing Training – Engine Surge Recovery To prevent accidents resulting from an engine surge caused by ice ingestion, airlines should provide adequate training for flight crews to ensure appropriate responses. Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

28. SE-163 Midair See-and Avoid Prevent midair collisions by improving see- and-avoid capability. Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

29. SE-159 Midair Airspace Design Prevent midair collisions by designing B/C/D airspace to be more easily identifiable, improving the usability of VFR charts and ensuring adequate and timely coordination of airspace design changes to users. Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

30. SE-162 Midair Prevent midair collisions by facilitating aircraft separation for users of advanced navigation systems not receiving ATC separation services. Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

31. SE-127 Cargo Fire Containment To reduce the occurrence of accidents and incidents from cargo fires, improved cargo containers should be developed to contain (or suppress) fires originating in shipped cargo Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?

32. SE-133 – Icing Turboprop Aircraft Ice Detection Systems To prevent accidents caused by in-flight icing, for turboprop aircraft with non- evaporative ice protection systems and non-powered flight controls, install systems that automatically detect ice, measure the rate of ice accretion and warn the crew. Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?

33. SE-134 Icing Aircraft Design - Avionics Avionic manufacturers and aircraft manufacturers should develop and install smart pitch guidance systems on all aircraft not presently equipped to prevent over rotation in conjunction with a low energy state or aerodynamic degradation due to the presence of ice. Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?

34. SE-101 Aircraft Design Advanced Circuit Protection Develop and install advanced circuit protection / arc fault breaker technology Appropriate for implementation in Asia ?

35. SE-169 Maintenance Policy & Procedures Airlines, operators and regulators should ensure that procedures are in place related to work cards, shift changes, responsibility and authority for work assignments and that necessary manuals are complete, accurate, available and appropriately used. Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

36. SE-170 Maintenance Aircraft Design Original equipment manufacturers (OEM) should monitor service history to verify that design and procedural assumptions valid. Operators should adhere to OEM recommendations or report maintenance task difficulties Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

37. SE-172 Maintenance Gap Analysis of Maintenance Process Identify and correct gaps within and between the maintenance processes that could inhibit the intended design level of safety. Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

38. SE-175 Maintenance Flight Critical Configurations Changes Airlines/maintenance should provide visible tagging any time the pitot static system is covered. Preflight procedures should include specific verification that pitot static ports are uncovered. Appropriate for implementation in Asia?

39. The Needs Vary Capacity Efficiency Safety

40. Thank you Kyle Olsen – Glenn Michael