Presentation on theme: "Steele on Intelligence What can we know, how? Reflections on the near future. Google versus the CIAFive Year Outlook Robert David Steele Vivas Hackers."— Presentation transcript:
Steele on Intelligence What can we know, how? Reflections on the near future. Google versus the CIAFive Year Outlook Robert David Steele Vivas Hackers in Santa Cruz 13 November 2005 A copy of these slides are at www.oss.netwww.oss.net Modern IO Portal Page Dated Today (Last Link)
Baseball Analogy Harnessing the Power of the Crowd OSINT HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT
Potential Earnings I Ad Hoc Information Purchase Curve for Current Western Base of Individual Users Only 5K3K2K1K5C3C2C1C502510 This is an ugly best guess at what the Google population would spend, per year, if they could do one click information purchases from multiple sources--you do the math….
Federal Marketplace US Spends Today: $5000M Needs to Spend: $1.5B Other Governments Should Spend an Equal Amount. TOTAL: $4B/Year State & Local Marketplace 50 States Spend Today: $0 Need to Spend: $1.5B in HS funds ($30M/state) for 50 Community Intelligence Centers/networks Others should follow along. TOTAL: $3B/Year Corporate Marketplace Multinationals Today: $25B Mostly BI or IT internal DM Mediocre sense-making or external à la carte small stuff Small Business Today: $1B Should Increase by 10X TOTAL: $250B/Year Associational Marketplace UN, Red Cross, others: $100M Need to Spend: $1B+ Need to GIVE Google: Raw information Religions, Clans, and Citizen Intelligence are the Wild Cards--potential for Google customers alone is $8B on a bell curve from $5 to $5000 a year, with $500 as the average.
Plan for the Briefing 1000 Sunday Where GIS Was 4 minutes on State of the World and the US 4 minutes of where Google appears to be 4 minutes on state of the art (Silobreaker) 4 minutes on sources in context 4 minutes on emerging technical standards 4 minutes of ethics and morality 4 minutes on the White Paper for OSIS-X 4 minute wrap on saving Google from itself
World War III Players Bacteria Nation- States Gangs Private Sector Citizens Mother Earth Water-Air-Green
Water & War Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 Hyper-Arid Sub-Humid Arid Semi-Arid Water Pollution 1 2 3 4 5 6
Global Threats to Local Survival *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002 Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Food Security 33 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Corruption Common 80 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries
What I Told Congress & US1: You May Not Be Interested in Reality, But Reality is Interested in You Of course no one listened. We have to shake the people awake and teach them that information is power. Information is a substitute for violence, capital, labor, time, and space. Information can create stabilizing indigenous wealth. Corrupt governments and immoral corporations or gangs destroy this option. Good news: Collective Popular Intelligence is Emergent
The Google Legacy Supercomputer 1/3 rd rack cost, optimized LINUX for speed10X performance @ half price Plug in racks/centers Inherent back-up Geospatially aware Open Office soon? Going to hand-held as global access point
State of the Art Will blow through these Its not about separate sources anymore Its not about human reading anymore Its about integrating everything: –Collecting relevant offline information –Machine-aided collation & exploitation –Connecting experts and their students –Presenting the information is a compelling way
OVERVIEW Start with an overview of what is happening in general in you area of interest
FOCUS ON A COUNTRY – VIEW 360 Start with an overview of what is happening in general in your area of interest
FOCUS ON AN ORGANIZATION See specifics of people, places, etcetera with frequency of mention
FOCUS ON A PERSON Photos, Quotations, Links to Others, Key Details
GET NEW INSIGHTS This is the only global information service that integrates sources with tools
READ IN DEPTH, IN CONTEXT Anything can be sent to the scrapbook where other tools can be applied
Silobreaker Advances on Google This costs $400 a year at full price. Offered at $200 until the end of the year. Test it free for seven days by following the link at www.oss.net.www.oss.net This has been my secret weapon for years, now we are commoditizing it and moving on to more complex challengescreating a World Brain.
Sources All information, all languages, all the time Going back 200 years, digitizing hardcopy 185 languages, 33 of them core 12 relevant dialects of Arabic Must follow television, radio, audio, street 80% of this, at least, is overlooked by IC Cannot be made sense of by single individual
DigitalAnalogOral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *33 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages, and twelve critical Arabic dialects we do not do well at all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Dont even try to access most information 2) Cant process hard-copy into digital 3) Cant translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO Global Intelligence Failure Breakdown in Collection and Understanding
50%Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE Does Not Exist Global Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
Seven Views of Reality Not sharing, not listening, costs us. Military Law Enforcement Business Academic National NGO & Media Religions & Clans
New Craft of Intelligence I Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
Technologies Cell phone, not PC, will be primary access XML, Geocoding, standards, are making data smartthe context is in the content IBM just linked DB2 with Google Enterprisewhen we add CISCO AON and CISCO IPICS, we will have a globally distributed instantly exploitable World Brain Foreign language man-machine networks and distributed advanced analytics will add value Gaming, not reports, will rule
Five Technical Trends Cell phones allow for constant pervasive data entry including streaming video/audio, and for instant locationally-aware receipt of relevant intelligence Googlization of intelligence, when enhanced, will put industrial era spies and aggregators out of businessCIA, Factiva, LEXIS, DIALOG--dead Open Hypertext Document (OHD) from Bootstrap (Doug Englebart) allows links, discovery, and micro-cash purchase at the paragraph level Synthetic information breaks the copyright chainscan still pay by the paragraph, but can also create new synthetic knowledge that is original Virtual reality games, not reports, will teach, inspire, allow for safe testing of different scenarios and investment strategies.
Ethics & Morality Secrecy is pathologicalsecrets can be ignored and manipulatedwitness Iraq Secrecy displaces dialogcult of secrecy Secrecy enables corruption & treasonnot just by governments but by corporations (Enron), Media (NYT, medical journals), and religions (Catholic Church) Secrecy undermines social understanding of reality and allows rich to steal from the poor
TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE PEOPLE DECIDE TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL SECRET SOURCES & METHODS BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING OPEN SOURCES & METHODS OBVIOUS DETAIL OBSCURE DETAIL OLD NEW A Revolution is Underway Peer-to-Peer Distributed Ubiquitous Collective Intelligence Now Possible
Teen-Agers are Center of Gravity World War III will be fought in the hearts and minds of teen-agers Half the brainthe half that can understand other viewsdies by the age of 35 Morality self-directs between the ages of 25 and 35thats when the brain matures Faith mattersnot ideological zealotry, but a belief in the Golden Rule and respect for cultural and religious paths chosen by others over the course of centuries.
Reality Wont Go Away End of cheap oil cascades across everything End of free water is actually a bigger threat Rise of pandemic mutating infectious disease could rebalance populations Rise of crime and corruption reflects the failure of all governments, including USA, to adapt to fast-changing real world issues Collective popular intelligence is in a race for life, a race that will determine our future.
Peace & Prosperity Can Be Achieved By Changing When & How We Intervene Public warning can change public policy –More Prevention –More Peacekeeping –More Education –More Long-Term Aid –Less Corruption –Less Censorship We have a sacred duty. Between Google and Wikis, Moral Democracy Possible
TECHNICALHUMAN III - External Information EXTERNAL INTERNAL Organizational Memory System Data Conversion Data Visualization Heterogeneous Search & Retrieval Trip Reports Churning (Rotationals) Local Knowledge Expert Hires Just Enough, Just in Time Internal Reporting Vendor Reporting Government Monitoring Customer Monitoring Environmental Monitoring Technology Monitoring CHUNKS (Intellectual Property) PERSONALITY (Insight/Intuition) Patents, Etc. Trade Secrets Meta-Data Knowledge Capital Rolodexes/E-Mail Personal Brand Out-Sourcing of Information Processing Project/Group Management Training Business I ntelligence Institutionalized E-Commerce Automated Analysis Cell # IV - Organizational Intelligence I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work
Open SourcesGlobal Sources Multiple Global Language Sources Global Language and Area Analysis The Open Loop / Unclassified System: (Open access to web, on-line, broadcast, published, posted sources internal VPNs; From all sources, from all points of view, and all authors; Expressed in real time, in geo spatial terms, and local context.) (Foreign language sources captured and processed; and indexed and available directly in the vernacular language and dialect; With accurate details and context; and access to sources and authors) (Open market access to global domain expertise, and language/area expertise To review, integrate, synthesize, report From accurate real time details and context; With direct access to sources/authors; From the street corner not the cubicle) (Completely unconstrained random sources with random training and experience; with native language and area experience; and orthogonal to the common correct DoD/ Intel analysis and reporting) We need to live in the Real World of Open Sources and Open Analysis Only Total Access to All Data and Analysis from All Sources will Validate Specific Data
Management Hub IR&D Funding DB2/OmniFind Client Standard Content-Based Routing PDA & Disk Level Security + Google Enterprise Googleplex Leased See Sub-State Slices Overnight Hard-Copy from Everywhere Migrate Toward Localized Digitization Inside the Book and Ranking Applied to Foreign OSINT Pioneer Decision-Support Pioneer Global Geospatial Pioneer + OSINT-DS Toolkit & Sources Anonymous Access Data Mining Pioneers Machine Translation Pioneer Hand-Held C4I Terminals Networking PioneerChief Scientist & ArchitectInstalled Base Anonymizer S-Minds Influentials by Name ++ Cleared Multi-Lingual Operational Support in the Field
$1B/Yr 3 $111B/Yr 10 Pay with information Pay with cash & information DoD $250M/Yr 1 $500M/Yr 2 $1B/Yr 3 $1B is half what USDI was prepared to authorize at FOC for OSINT alone. We go for JOICs, OSINT, & integrated man-machine Foreign Language Conversion in a coherent manner that creates added value for each contract, a compelling sales point and a barrier to entry for our competitors who miss the big picture. 1PB/Yr 1 5 PB/Yr 2 10 PB/Yr 3 Goal is all UN information including field reports in real time, beginning with complex PKI of DoD interest and networking of all NGO eyes & ears on the ground. USG 10X DoD with 1-3 year lag time. U.S. Based Corporations OMB pursuing common solutions approach. We give them our model, funded by DoD, for all of USG with NORTHCOM as hinge and DHS as the ultimate beneficiary. The language capability can help us capture 911 now. Most of them dont get it yetstuck in IT or KM, internally focused. Spending $15B a year now on data mining and related IT-driven ideas. Two tracks: one with our team members and their best big clients, the other commoditizing for small businesses. Education Everywhere All Levels Any institution agreeing to upload the bulk of its open research information including all student dissertations to OSIS-X gets access to OSIS-X and to the toolkit (registering for the toolkit recruits the individual mind by name into the global network. All students everywhere are on tap, not just for knowledge creation, but for direct observation and nuanced evaluation. Later this allows us to change the educational paradigm to mix distance leaning, on-demand tutorials, help buttons for any task, and social networking as needed. Above the cash line, we focus on restoring education and research as the engines for wealth production through knowledge creation. Below the cash line, we focus on intellectual property creation, management, exploitation. Law Enforcement Beginning with Interpol and drilling down locally in all countries, we give them OSIS-X free to obtain privacy OK & protection world-wide. GWOT data benefits. United Nations All NGOs, World Bank, IMF Journalists We get their organizations to pay for access, but we find a way to recruit them as individuals to meet our client needs on the side. Labor Unions & Religions Citizens & Advocacy Groups Its no longer about the collection of information or the communication of information. The next big thing is about the connection of dots to dots, dots to people, and people to people. We do this with an intelligent network and a focus on semantic web/synthetic information architecture technology, and the empowerment of individuals so that they can create and share knowledge in real time without organizational, legal, security, cultural, or language impediments. The next slide shows the OSS value concept, the I side of the IT equation. SANITIZED
OSIS-X (Global Nations, Organizations, & Individuals) GPS RFID-X (All Devices, People, Locations) Intelink-X USA Earns Nobels Across S&T Funded by DoD, Fed By OSIS-X USA DGI, GIC, GSC World Intelligence Network General Al Gray: Communications without intelligence is noise; intelligence without communications is irrelevant. Peter Drucker (paraphrase): Weve spent 50 years on the T in IT, now it is time we spent 50 years on the I in IT. Side Benefit: Provides USG with global cultural and educational leverage at home and abroad Side Benefit: Conflict Deterrence & Resolution via Early Warning & Information Peacekeeping DGI: Director of Global Information GIC: Global Intelligence Council GSC: Global Strategy Council
OLD PARADIGMNEW PARADIGM # = Your Top Issues, Local, National, Global You Are Here... 1 2 3 Far Future Near Future Present Historical Memory
Intelligence and Research Policy Planning Staff SP Semantic Architecture Network NSA State Department NetworksIC Networks CIA DIA IC Example 4. Global ST Community: Linking Science / Technology / Bio-Medical Expertise Analysis & Policy Intel & Analysis EA SA NEA AF WHA EUR Regional Bureaus IO Legislative Affairs Science Affairs OES STAS Commercial Science Community USG Science Community NIH Academic Science Community NSF DoD Other Federal & State Agencies University Research Corporate Research Traditional Published Journals On-Line Published Journals Content Distributors Professional Societies NP VC US NGO Funded Research VPN & Internet Sources DoE USDA USG VPN White House Liaison Global NGO Funded Research Individuals What is our current scientific/technical TOPIC knowledge; and WHO are the EXPERTS?
OLD PARADIGM NEW PARADIGM Reality-Based Behavior & Budgets You Are Here... 1 2 3 Gaming Future ROIs Foreign Viewpoints Reality Public Memory Secrecy rules Elites rules Act on 2% of the info. People complacent Short-term view Unilateral militarism Immoral capitalism Big stick works BUT Long-term cost not visible to public
Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Standardizing and Converting Data Formats Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data Automated Foreign Language Translation Open LiteratureNon-Text DataRestricted Information Detection of Alert Situations Clustering and Linking of Related Data Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Detection of Changing Trends Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data Graphic and Map- Based Visualization of Data Modeling and Simulations Collaborative Work Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Structured Argument Analysis Desktop Publishing and Word Processing Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review Finished Intelligence and Reporting A B C
SECRET BIG DATA NSA-NGA SAIC HARRIS NG-MS NOT SECRET BIG DATA UN, Red Cross, NGOs… NASA, public geospatial Factiva LEXIS-NEXIS SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA Intelink ARDA ITIC JHU/APL NOT SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA CISCO Google/Libraries Amazon Inside the Book Napster Plus Open Source Information System – External (OSIS-X) SIPRNETSIPRNET
Credits: Mike Hayden, Original Concept; Robert Steele, Labels & OSINT-Ops-Other; Steve Edwards, Turned Upside Down
Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Standardizing and Converting Data Formats Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data Automated Foreign Language Translation Open LiteratureNon-Text DataRestricted Information Detection of Alert Situations Clustering and Linking of Related Data Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Detection of Changing Trends Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data Graphic and Map- Based Visualization of Data Modeling and Simulations Collaborative Work Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Structured Argument Analysis Desktop Publishing and Word Processing Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review NEW: Intelligent Network Enables Applications At All Points OLD:
Paradigm Shift in Information Dots dont know they are secret until some human decides this. Dots gain value from swarming, lose value within compartmentation. Dots gain value from history and context. Dots gain value from speed of delivery. Dots in a foreign language are smarter.
Information for All Four Levels Strategic Planning Operational Coordination Tactical Employment Acquisition Design History Context Current Awareness Key Personalities/Motivators Imagery & Image Maps Translation Support Strategic Generalizations Critical Technologies This is about information superiority across the board, not just enhancing all- source intelligence!
Inter-Agency Collaboration SOJICC J-2J-3 J-1 MP J-5 CA J-4 Eng J-6 IT CGR2 INTELLIGENCE CLUSTER 80% Unclassified Information NGO CLUSTER LEA CLUSTER SERVICE CLUSTER CIVIL CLUSTER COALITION CLUSTER ????????
OPG VPN Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex Teams Crossing All Boundaries
Google-India & World Brain Four OPENS –Open source software –Open source information –Open spectrum –Open Hypertext Document System We are close to both victory & salvation. Centers in each region Unite the seven tribes –Transnationally –Locally Bottom-up people power He who enters data rules, not he who hides or manipulates data Openness is the antidote to secrecy & corruption.
Do No Evil & Counter Evil Taking money from US IC is very bad idea. Poor people are the wild cards. Foreign poor people are the best wild cards. Beltway bandits are evil and the alternative to a smart, moral, globally-responsible Google. Need to create global multinational intelligence sharing network rather than augmenting national secret networks. Its time for Google to grow up, scale up, and rule in a United Nations/friend to all manner, NOT NOT NOT as a secret ally of the U.S. Government. Cut the IC ties NOW.
Humble Suggestions for Google Buy Silobreaker, Vivisimo, & the Institute of Scientific Information Partner with Amazon, FedEx-Kinkos Explode World Bank and UN Relationships Integrate CISCO AON and IPCIPS Replicate or cooperate with Skype Fund global man-machine foreign language translation and advanced analytics network BE the Global Intelligence Network/World Brain
Spread the Word Robert David Steele Vivas CEO, OSS.Net, Inc. Coach, Global Intelligence Partnership (20 companies & rising) Bear@oss.net 703.242.1700 Will speak for sushi. Use MoveOn.Org OSINT topic to organize everywhere in the world