1. Kivi Niria jaarcongres, 23 november 2011 Transatlantic Academy 12 January 2012 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty - Some Lessons for Effective Resource Policies Stephan Slingerland

2. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty 2 3 Lessons for effective resource policies

3. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty 3 3 Lessons for effective resource policies  A different discussion

4. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty 4 3 Lessons for effective resource policies  A different discussion  Transparent goals and interactions

5. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty 5 3 Lessons for effective resource policies  A different discussion  Transparent goals and interactions  A balanced mix of options

6. Kivi Niria jaarcongres, 23 november 2011 Transatlantic Academy 12 January 2012 Resource scarcity: 1. A different discussion 2. Transparent goals 3. Balanced options

7. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty Resource scarcity is of all times…

8. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty Resource scarcity is of all times…

9. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty Resource scarcity is of all times…

10. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty Resource scarcity is of all times…

11. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty The current discussion has more dimensions Source: PBL, 2011

12. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty Not only depletion, but also indirect physical effects of resource use …

13. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty Not only depletion, but also indirect physical effects of resource use … Climate change Source: PBL, 2009

14. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty Not only depletion, but also indirect physical effects of resource use … Biodiversity loss Climate change Source: PBL, 2009Source: PBL, 2011a

15. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty … short-term price peaks… Source: PBL, 2010

16. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty … short-term price peaks… Source: PBL, 2010  Scarcity Resources too expensive  Abundance (environ- mental degradation): Resources too cheap

17. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty … and resource security.

18. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty Most severe effects in developing countries. In PBL, 2011

19. Kivi Niria jaarcongres, 23 november 2011 Transatlantic Academy 12 January 2012 Resource scarcity: 1. A different discussion 2. Transparent goals 3. Balanced options

20. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty 20 Resource policies can have several objectives 1.Security of supply 2.Affordability 3.Environment 4.Development

21. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty 21 Objectives can conflict: choices are required Source: PBL, 2011

22. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty Current EU policy goals  Environment track / Resource efficiency –Flagship initiative ‘Resource Efficient Europe’ (January 2011) –‘Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe’ (October 2011)  Security of supply track / Raw materials –‘Tackling the challenges on commodity markets and on raw materials’ (February 2011)

23. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty Current EU policy goals  Environment track / Resource efficiency –Flagship initiative ‘Resource Efficient Europe’ (January 2011) –‘Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe’ (October 2011)  Security of supply track / Raw materials –‘Tackling the challenges on commodity markets and on raw materials’ (February 2011) Where are priorities?

24. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty Current EU policy goals  Environment track / Resource efficiency –Flagship initiative ‘Resource Efficient Europe’ (January 2011) –‘Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe’ (October 2011)  Security of supply track / Raw materials –‘Tackling the challenges on commodity markets and on raw materials’ (February 2011) Where are priorities? Where is development?

25. Kivi Niria jaarcongres, 23 november 2011 Transatlantic Academy 12 January 2012 Resource scarcity: 1. A different discussion 2. Transparent goals 3. Balanced options

26. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty 26 Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet

27. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty 27 Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet  Relative decoupling is not absolute decoupling

28. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty 28 Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet  Relative decoupling is not absolute decoupling  Rebound effect

29. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty 29 Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet  Relative decoupling is not absolute decoupling  Rebound effect  Other necessary directions –Substitution –Behavioural changes

30. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty 30 Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet  Relative decoupling is not absolute decoupling  Rebound effect  Other necessary directions –Substitution –Behavioural changes  Involve other actors

31. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty 31 3 Lessons for effective resource policies  Integrate all dimensions of the new resource discussion  Be transparent about trade-offs between goals  Develop a balanced set of policy options

32. Kivi Niria jaarcongres, 23 november 2011 Transatlantic Academy 12 January 2012 Thank you! www.pbl.nl

33. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty Literature - PBL reports used  2009 Growing within Limits  2010 Scarcity and Transition  2011 Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty  2011a The Protein Puzzle  2011b Rethinking Global Biodiversity Strategies  2011c EU Resource Efficiency Perspectives in a Global Context  2011d The Energic Society

34. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

35. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty 35 Efficiency will not achieve climate goals Source: PBL, 2011c

36. 12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty Trade-offs need to be considered… Competing additional claims on land in 2050  Agriculture  Energy crops  Protected area  Other ecosystem services  Forestry  Potentially lost due to degradation 7-31 million km 2  available 17 million km 2 Source: PBL, 2011a