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Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 1 Climate change and Water Management Policy options for the future.

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Presentation on theme: "Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 1 Climate change and Water Management Policy options for the future."— Presentation transcript:

1 Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 1 Climate change and Water Management Policy options for the future

2 Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 Climate Change and Water Management 2 Climate change – dealing with uncertainties  Temperature rise  Sea level rise  Precipitation patterns  River discharges – averages and peak discharges  Storm surges and hurricanes

3 Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 Climate Change and Water Management 3 Risks with respect to water management  Changes in flood risks: coastal and river areas  Changes in water availability and drought risks  Salinization of deltas  Increased risks of urban flooding According to IPCC effects of climate change may be prominent in second half of 2100 (IPCC, 2008)

4 Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 Climate Change and Water Management 4 Trend in weather-related disasters Data do not allow conclusions about relationship climate change and disasters -Corrected for population growth and economic growth there is a stabilization Source: Visser et al., in prep Population growth by 1/3 up to 9 billion -Further economic growth  Vulnerability increases  Water demand increases

5 Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 Climate Change and Water Management 5 World water resources  Salt water1,05 billion km397,5%  Freshwater 35 million km3 2,5% Available for use <1 % Source: UNEP; WWAP

6 Uncertainties availability  demand: tipping points Resource variability time water demand Options: -Increase resource *water harvesting *de-salinization - Increase resource efficiency *households *industries *agriculture Result: - Reduced vulnerability - Buying time water quantity

7 Freshwater use world wide  Households 8%  Industry22%  Agriculture70% 20% of agricultural area => 40% of food production 80% agricultural area rainfed Source: UNEP; WWAP Irrigation increases crop production factor 2-5

8 Relevant drivers increasing pressure on water  Population growth up to 9 billion people with 70% in cities  Economic growth and increasing wealth  Growth of food production (irrigation, nutrients, pesticides)  Changes in diet: more meat increases water demands  Globalisation and liberalisation => shift of food production from dry areas to wet areas  Biomass production: water demand >> rice and wheat  Climate change

9 Water demand increases Source: PBL in OECD

10 Population lacking access to improved watersupply UrbanRural Source: PBL in OECD

11 Population lacking access to improved sanitation UrbanRural Source: PBL in OECD UrbanRural

12 Diet change increases water demand water use/kg  Cattle15 m3  Sheeps/goats10 m3  Poultry 6 m3  Rice 3 m3  Wheat 1,5 m3  Citrus 1 m3 Source: FAO

13 Shift of food production increases water stress Source: PBL in OECD; WUR Saoudi Arabia -> Ethiopia food Soedan China, Korea, Japan -> Africa food, biomass Brasil -> Mozambique biomass sugercane Europe food/biomass

14 Water embedded in complex interactions Urban developments Rural & Nature developments Capital driven agriculture water land conversion labour emissions food migration capital land conversion capital food …. Export - food - biomass international networks Food import national & foreign investors Water and food- security not only a matter of water

15 Role of water management  Main drivers out of reach  Water needs to be integrated in economic analyses - optimizing crop per drop (production/m3, $$ /m3) - $$/m3 agriculture  $$/m3 competing activities - $$ ecosystemservices - …  Contribution to fair sharing: between nations, between people, between sectors (nature, ecosystems)  Basis: analysis on scale of river basins!

16 Integrated water basin management

17 Interactions upstream/downstream

18 + complex thematic interactions Land use Water use

19 Wide variety of policy instruments - Information – behavioural changes - Standards waterquality * nutrients * other emissions - Water permits, water rights - Land use planning - Technology * improving resource eff. * de-salinisation - Cutting perverse subsidies - Introduce positive subsidies -…..

20 Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 Climate Change and Water Management 20 Future challenges Strategic -Integration of water and climate in economical and political strategies -Powerfull economical analyses on river basin scale for informed decisions on water allocation and use (River Basin Committees  National governments) -Water is cross-cutting issue: supra-sectoral approach required within context of water basins -Guiding principles: sustainable use and fair sharing Technology -Sharp improvement of resource efficiency especially in agriculture -De-salinization based on renewable and cheap energy -Water-harvesting techniques -…………

21 Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 Climate Change and Water Management 21 Enormous geographical differences No silver bullets – area-specific analyses and approaches needed Physical system Economic system Political/societal system What?How?

22 Willem Ligtvoet, January 12 Climate Change and Water Management 22


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