1. 1 School of Oriental & African Studies MDG1 & food security: critical challenges Andrew Dorward School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London Leverhulme Centre for Integrative Research on Agriculture & Health Andrew.Dorward@soas.ac.uk International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs 30 th November 2011

2. Outline  MDG1 elements & progress  Agriculture, food security & inclusive growth  Current challenges  Action 30 November 2011 2 International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs

3. The MDG1 targets TARGET 1.A Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day TARGET 1.B Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people TARGET 1.C Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger 30 November 2011 3 International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs

4. % People living on less than $1.25: 1990, 2005 4 30 Novermber 2011

5. % Under-5 children underweight : 1990, 2009 5 30 Novermber 2011

6. Agriculture, food security & inclusive growth: context  Stages of development & growth:  Importance of food in expenditure (& earnings) of poor countries & poor people  Importance of land, labour & capital in poor countries’ & poor people’ economies  Importance of food production in using land & labour  Importance of food deficit farmers?  Nature of growth  land productivity & labour demand, in tradables & staples  Cross sectoral linkages  Agricultural potential  Other opportunities: minerals & trade (coastal countries) 30 November 2011 6 International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs

7. 30 November 2011 7  Increased productivity of national & poor people’s labour  Increased productivity of national & poor people’s land  Higher incomes: farmers & farm labourers  Cheaper food for the urban & rural poor raises their real incomes  Stimulus for demand for local goods & services  Surplus capital & labour for other sectors  Exports & import substitution  Livestock & horticulture – supply & demand growth  Nutrition & health benefits Drivers Supporters Agriculture, food security & inclusive growth: processes & special contributions International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs

8. International grain price indices, 2005-2011 30 November 2011 8 International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs

9. A system tightened too far? Steve Wiggins (2009) Peakkg/cap Peak kg/cap

10. International commodity price indices, 2005-2011 30 November 2011 10 International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs

11. Price effects: undernourishment 11 30 Novermber 2011 Asia Africa International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs

12. Country resiliences to rising food prices 12 30 Novermber 2011 National / household food buyers National / household food sellers and/or rising non-food incomes

13. Causes of the current spikes Volatility: price spikes Stakeholder stocking Financial speculation Production lags Loss of land Oil prices Population growth Economic growth Rising demand Policy changes Biofuels Reduced subsidies Reduced R&D Oil prices Biofuels Climate change Water scarcity Environmental changes Higher prices Low stocks Stagnant productivity Falling supply Weather shocks Waste etc. 30 November 2011 13

14. Actions  Address global constraints on food production  investment in research, improved efficiency, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, integrated soil fertility management, water management, climate change mitigation & adaptation, biofuels policies, speculation?  Specific country & vulnerable group measures to improve food productivity  research, roads, extension, input & output markets, ?input subsidies (be careful!), cross sectoral links, land policies, integrated soil fertility management, water  hungry gap measures  Specific country & vulnerable group measures to improve affordable food access  Transparent & predictable trade policies; safety nets; insurance?, market & early warning information  Monitor real incomes for vulnerable groups: seasonal wage to food price ratio 30 November 2011 14 International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs

15. Questions?  Examples of problems?  Examples of successful & unsuccessful responses?  Lessons? 30 November 2011 15 International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs

16. Sources  UN (2011) The Millennium Development Goals Report & Statistical Annex.  IFPRI, Concern Worldwide and Welthungerhilfe. 2011 Global Hunger Index - The Challenge of Hunger: Taming Price Spikes and Excessive Food Price Volatility  FAO (2011) The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2011. How does international price volatility affect domestic economies and food security?  World Bank Prospects Commodity Markets http://go.worldbank.org/4ROCCIEQ50 http://go.worldbank.org/4ROCCIEQ50 30 November 2011 16 International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs

17. increased / constant per capita food availability releasing labour for production of other goods and services falling food prices relative to wages/income, increased income available for purchase of non food goods & services COORDINATION processes, scale, locations, populations, timing higher labour productivity in food production Energy, materials, capital, technology, knowledge, institutions AGRI- CULTURAL REVOLUT- IONS higher labour productivity, other goods & services increased / constant per capita ‘other’ availability releasing labour for production of other goods & services falling ‘other’ prices relative to wages/income, increased income available for purchase of goods & services Energy, materials, capital, technology, knowledge, institutions COORDINATION processes, scale, locations, populations, timing INDUSTRIAL, SERVICE, KNOWLEDGE REVOLUT- IONS Increased demand for & supply of non-food goods & services Later (?) Negative feedbacks Natural resource use, Waste, Environmental degradation, Biodiversity loss, Health? Inequity? ? Globalisation? Earlier(?) Positive feedbacks Capital, Technology, Knowledge, Health? Poverty reduction, Globalisation? Hunger Food deficit farmers Land