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Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Beyond Moores Law The best way to predict the future is to invent it. --Alan Kay Gordon Bell Bay Area Research.

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Presentation on theme: "Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Beyond Moores Law The best way to predict the future is to invent it. --Alan Kay Gordon Bell Bay Area Research."— Presentation transcript:

1 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Beyond Moores Law The best way to predict the future is to invent it. --Alan Kay Gordon Bell Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Corporation

2 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Beyond Moores Law Just FCB (faster, cheaper, better)… COTS will soon mean consumer off the shelf Moores Law and technology progress likely to continue for another decade for: processing, memory, storage, LANs, WANs System-on-a chip of interesting sizes will emerge to create 0 cost systems Any displacement technology is unlikely … Carver Meads Law c1980 A technology takes 11 years to get established On the other hand, we are on Internet time! No DNA, molecular, or quantum computers, or new stores

3 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Beyond Moores Law Results Is the Internet aka Moores Law to get cheaper, one chip systems that increase portability, ubiquity, etc. Paper-competitive Screens Disks of 1 TB Wireless for ubiquity; including GPS Bridges to television Bridges to PSTN for phones, PDAs, etc.

4 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Beyond Moores Law Results The more uniform the system, the more attractive it is for developers to produce many varieties of low cost apps The more uniform the system, the more susceptible they are to viruses Change will be due to ubiquity of computing brought about by networking PLUS Interesting, new platforms that interface use/users – When can we speak to these computers? – Sensors e.g. cameras of all types – GPS and direction (pointing) – MEMS & Biochips in particular There are many other laws and forces, beyond Moores Law that determine IT

5 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Big event of 1999: massive infusion of venture capital >$3 Billion/quarter (1/3 for Internet). …Esprit $3B/3 yrs Capital is pulling people from research. Product development beats research if you have an idea what youre looking for Little technology. Apps development : shift from central to distributed back to fully distributed computing

6 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Forecast of corp web-enabled expenditures

7 In a decade we can/will have: more powerful personal computers – processing x – 4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper – Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays – low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use adequate networking???? – ubiquitous access = todays fast LANs – Competitive wireless networking One chip, networked platforms including light bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc. Some well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and market share watch, pocket, body implant, home Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people.

8 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws What if could or when can we store everything weve: read/written, heard, and seen?

9 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws

10 Storing all weve read (written), heard (listened to), & seen (presented) Human data-types /hr/day (/4yr)/lifetime read text, few pictures200 K M/G G speech 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 G 3.6 M 40 M/G1.2 T video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M.25 G/T 25 T video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M1 G/T100 T video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G20 G/T 1 P

11 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws High Performance Computing

12 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Bell Prize and Future Peak Tflops (t) Petaflops study target NEC XMP NCube CM2 *IBM

13 Computer types Netwrked Supers… GRID Legion Condor Beowulf NT clusters VPPuni T3E SP2 (mP) NOW NEC mP SGI DSM clusters & SGI DSM NEC super Cray X…T (all mPv) Mainframes Multis WSs PCs Connectivity WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM micros vector Clusters

14 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws High Performance Computing Supers we knew are Japanese; scalability & COTS in… but you have to roll your own else pay the Unix & proprietary taxes Beowulf is $14K/TB ( 6 x 4 x 40 GB) IBM 4000R 1 rack: 2x42 500Mhz processors, 84 GB, 84 disks $420K … still cheaper than the big buys $10-20K/node for special purpose vs $2K for a MAC EMC, IBM at $1 million/TB; vs $14K

15 Region/Intranet Campus Home… buildings buildings Body World Continent Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers! Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms Cars… phys. nets

16 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information Coupling to all information and information processors Pure bits e.g. printed matter Bit tokens e.g. money State: places, things, and people State: physical networks

17 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Bells law of computer class formation to cover Cyberspace New computer platforms emerge based on chip density evolution Computer classes require new platforms, networks, and cyberization New apps and content develop around each new class Each class becomes a vertically disintegrated industry based on hardware and software standards

18 Bells Evolution Of Computer Classes Technology enables two evolutionary paths: 1. constant performance, decreasing cost 2. constant price, increasing performance 1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 =.62 Mini Time Mainframes (central) PCs (personals) Log price WSs Handheld ??

19 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Platform evolution: What do they do thats useful? How do they communicate?

20 Price, performance, and class of various goods & services Computer price = $10 x 10 class# Computer weight =.05 x 10 class# Car price = $6K x 1.5 class # Transportation artifact prices = k x $10 type (shoes,...cars,... trains,... ICBMs) French Restaurants(t='95) = f(ambiance, location) x $25 x 1.5 stars

21 Bells Ten+ Computer Price Tiers Super server: costs more than $100,000 Mainframe: costs more than $1 million an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports 1$: embeddables e.g. greeting card 10$: wrist watch & wallet computers 100$:pocket/ palm computers 1,000$:portable computers 10,000$: personal computers (desktop) 100,000$: departmental computers (closet) 1,000,000$:site computers (glass house) 10,000,000$:regional computers (glass castle) 100,000,000$:national centers 1,000,000,000$:the grid

22 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws On body and in body networks Third wearables conference

23 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Libretto,.5mm PCS; Pilot Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife Compass; altimeter Not shown: ECG; GPS;

24 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws 22 years ago: 6 oz. Watch, manual size > watch size

25 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters… 1 GB

26 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Steve Mann in Cyberspace

27 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws CMU wearable computers

28 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws CMU wearables family tree

29 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws MedronIcMedronIc

30 Your husband just died, … heres his black box

31 When will we have smart rooms? Reasonable sized displays or panel for interaction Cameras that can recognize various people Mics and Speech based interface Speakers Coupled to all power, data, audio, and video/television networks Interval Research has a product to track individuals in stores!

32 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Or be completely covered by a smart world

33 450 Old Oak Ct, Los Altos, CA

34 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Webcams

35 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Webcam of Hospital in Sweden

36 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Economics-based laws determine the market As industries increase, they become horizontal Demand: doubles as price declines by 20% Learning curves: 10-15% cost decline with 2X units Nathans Laws of Software -- the virtuous circle Bills Law for the economics of PC software Linuss Law for software… it is free plus support Sarnoff & Metcalf Laws for the value of a network

37 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Consult Apps Dbases OS Network Periph Computers Micros Solutions Andersen, EDS, KPMG, Lante, etc. Microsoft, Lotus, WordPerfect, etc. Microsoft, Apple, Sun, Novell Comshare, D&B, PeopleSoft, SAP HP, Canon, Lexmark, Seagate Novell, Microsoft, Banyan IBM, Compaq, DEC, Apple, many others Intel, AMD, Motorola, others Informix, Ingres, Oracle, Sybase,etc. Informix, Ingres, Oracle, Sybase,etc. EDS, FDC, BTG, API, DataFocus, HFSI Computer Industry 1995

38 Applications Databases OS Switching Computers DSP Processors Microsoft, Delrina, many others Microsoft, Apple, Sun, Novell, LINUX Ericsson, Aspect, Nortel, Octel, others Dialogic, NMS, Rhetorex, others Ericsson, Nortel, Bay, 3Com, Fore, others Compaq, DEC, Dell, IBM, many others Intel, AMD, Motorola, others Informix, Microsoft, Oracle, Sybase, others Informix, Microsoft, Oracle, Sybase, others Future Telecom Industry

39 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Internet Industry (circa 1999) Courtesy of Zindigo Ventures Transport Network Hardware/Protocols Computers & Operating Layer Software Applications & Middleware Infobases/PortalsProcurementCommunication Supply Chain ERPProfessionalFinancial Operations Marketing Internet Services $170B* Infrastructure $171B* * University of Texas Center for Research in Electronic Commerce ** This market is not yest sized, estimated at $2B+,growing to $100B in 2002 Access Personal/Employee Data Government Content Syndicators Content Syndication $2B+ ** Web Hosting

40 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Nathans Laws of software 1. Software is a gas. It expands to fill the container it is in 2. Software grows until it becomes limited by Moores Law 3. Software growth makes Moores Law possible 4. Software is only limited by human ambition and expectation …GB: and our ability to cyberize I.e. encode

41 Software Economics: Bills Law Bill Joys law (Sun): dont write software for <100,000 million engineering expense, $1,000 price Bill Gates law: dont write software for <1,000,000 engineering expense, $100 price Examples: – UNIX versus Windows NT: $3,500 versus $500 – Oracle versus SQL-Server: $100,000 versus $6,000 – No spreadsheet or presentation pack on UNIX/VMS/... Commoditization of base software and hardware Price Fixed_cost Marginal _cost = Units +

42 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Innovation The Virtuous Economic Cycle that drives the PC industry Volume Competition Standards Utility/value

43 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Stahlmans Law: Open Software Foundation Software is free All source code is open and available for inspection and extensions Anyone can be a tester Anyone is a developer who uses or extends the code

44 Linuss Law: Linux everywhere Software is or should be free All source code is open Everyone is a tester Everything proceeds a lot faster when everyone works on one code Anyone can support and market the code for any price Zero cost software attracts users! All the developers write lots of code

45 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Sarnoffs Law The value of a network is proportional to the number of its users

46 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Metcalfs Law Network Utility = Users 2 How many connections can it make? – 1 user: no utility – 100,000 users: a few contacts – 1 million users: many on Net – 1 billion users: everyone on Net That is why the Internet is so hot – Exponential benefit

47 Telnet & FTP WWW AudioVideo Voice! Standards Increase Capacity (circuits & bw) Lower response time Create new service Increased Demand The virtuous cycle of bandwidth supply and demand

48 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws What is the value of combined network when television, telephone, and hand held web devices are added? How do you build a home network infrastructure, platforms, and interface to uses

49 Home CATV Analog/digital cable distribution PC broadcasts are mixed into home CATV in analog and/or MPEG digital Ethernet Home network Video capture milliBill Basic ideas: 1. PC records or plays thru video cable channels. 2. PC broadcasts art images, webcams, presentations, videos, DVDs, etc. 3. Ethernet not cable? Settop box Another big bang? Internet to TV and audio: The Net, PC meet the TV

50 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillg Using PCs to drive large screens e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels Gordon Bell Jim Gemmell Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Research Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation

51 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws

52

53 Voice to WEB Bridge Web Server Web Server TheWeb DataBase PSTN The Next Convergence POTS connects to the Web a.k.a. Phone-Web Gateways

54 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Enable voice and text access on phones, screen phones, PDAs and other devices to existing Internet infrastructure in an intelligent, customizable way.WebOnPhoneMission: WebOnPhone

55 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Data Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020 Telephony Television Will we have gateways?

56 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Hardware technology: processing, memory, networking, and new interfaces enable the new computers

57 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws 1. We get more

58 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Tera Giga Mega Kilo Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per yearStorage Backbone Memory Processing Telephone Service 17% / year ??

59 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws National Semiconductor Technology Roadmap (size)

60 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws National Storage Technology Roadmap (size, density, speed)

61 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Performance in Mflop/s Micros Supers R2000 i860 RS6000/540 Alpha RS6000/590 Alpha Cray 1S Cray X-MP Cray 2 Cray Y-MP Cray C90 Cray T Growth of microprocessor performance

62 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Microprocessor performance 100 G 10 G Giga 100 M 10 M Mega Kilo Peak Advertised Performance (PAP) Moores Law Real Applied Performance (RAP) 41% Growth

63 System-on-a-chip alternatives FPGASea of un-committed gate arrays Xylinx, Altera Compile a system Unique processor for every app Tensillica Systolic | array Many pipelined or parallel processors DSP | VLIW Special purpose processors TI Pc & Mp. ASICS Gen. Purpose cores. Specialized by I/O, etc. Intel, Lucent, IBM Universal Micro Multiprocessor array, programmable I/o Cradle

64 Cradle: Universal Microsystem trading Verilog & hardware for C/C++ Single part for all apps run time via FPGA & ROM 5 quad mPs at 3 Gflops/quad = 15 Glops Single shared memory space, caches Programmable periphery including: 1 GB/s; 2.5 Gips PCI, 100 baseT, firewire $4 per flops; 150 mW/Gflops UMS : VLSI = microprocessor : special systems Software : Hardware

65 UMS Architecture Memory bandwidth scales with processing Scalable processing, software, I/O Each app runs on its own pool of processors Enables durable, portable intellectual property

66 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year 1.E+21 1.E+18 1.E+15 1.E+12 1.E +9 1.E %= Teraops 40%= Petaops 60%= Exaops

67 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Communication rate(t) in log 10 (Kbps) POTS WAN LAN SAN/backpanels 1 Mb 1 Gb 1 Kb ??? 17%/year ISDN

68 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Nomadicity Video... Plus >>B/W Universality USA Today 1 Sept. 99

69 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Circuit data <9.6kbps HSCSD 57.6kbps GPRS 115kbps EDGE 384kbps UMTS 2Mbps 0.1 The evolution of wireless data standards

70 T1, T3, … Public Spaces Discovery of proximity services (flight schedules, mall directories) Proxy Server Phone Ethernet Internet WebServer IrDA Cellular Bluetooth

71 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws 10 Tbps 100 Tbps 1 Tbps 100 Gbps 10 Gbps 1 Gbps 100 Mbps 10 Mbps 1 Mbps 100 Kbps 10 Kbps 1 Kbps 100 bps 10 bps 1 Pbps Voice Traffic 56 KB T1 T3 OC-3 OC-12 OC-48 OC-192 OC-768 Voice Crossover Internet Traffic Max. Port Speed $100 M $10 M $1 M $100 K 1997 Breakpoint Delay Engineered Capacity Engineered Max. Switch Speed 100 Pbps 10 Pbps Internet growths vs time courtesy of Dr. Larry Roberts

72 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws 1 gbps microsoft.com/ ~gray/papers/ Win2K_1Gbps.doc

73 1988 Federal Plan for Internet

74 In a decade we can/will have: more powerful personal computers – processing x – 4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper – Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays – low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use adequate networking???? – ubiquitous access = todays fast LANs – Competitive wireless networking One chip, networked platforms including light bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc. Some well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and market share watch, pocket, body implant, home Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people.

75 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws The End

76 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Things get cheaper

77 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Exponential change of 10X per decade causes real turmoil! $K MB 1 MB 256 KB 64 KB 16 KB Timeshared systems Single-user systems

78 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws VAX Planning Model 1975: I didnt believe it The model was very good – 1978 timeshared $250K VAXen cost about $8K in 1997! Costs declined > 20% – users get more memory than predicted Single user systems didnt come down as fast, unless you consider PDAs VAX ran out of address bits!

79 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Newer & cheaper always wins? … if it werent for the Law of Intertia Old New New

80 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws The mainframe is dead! … and for sure this time! PRICEPRICE Mainframe Server PC

81 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws The law of data and program inertia sustains platforms! The investment in programs and processes to use them, and data exceed hardware costs The cost to switch among platforms e.g. IBM mainframe, VMS, a VendorIX, or Windows/NT is determined by the data and programs The goal of hardware suppliers is uniqueness to differentiate and lock-in The goals of software/database suppliers are: to differentiate and lock-in and operate on as many platforms as possible in order to be not tied to a hardware vendor

82 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws Computer industry growth (Gbells swag 12/99) Machine class Watch> Cellphone WAP>> Appliance of some type= TC (TV Computer)na=>> Handhelds>>= Network Computer-=> PC (portables)>>> PC (desktop)=== Workstation=<< VendorIX server (mini)>>>> Mainframe<<< Super (classic)=<<< Scalable PCs=>>> = 0-10%, >10-20%, >> 20-30%; < -10%

83 Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Computing Laws The End


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