1. Africa in the new oil geopolitics
NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD
Africa in the new oil geopolitics
JP. Favennec
Director - Centre for Economics and Management
IFP School
Institut français du pétrole
8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition
Marrakech, April

2. PETROLEUM WORLDWIDE IN 2002

3. WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION
10 000
Mtoe
9 000
Electricity*
8 000
Gas
7 000
6 000
5 000
Oil
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
Coal
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
* Nuclear and hydroelectricity
Source : BP Statistical Review

4. WORLD RESERVES (1.1.2003) (109 toe)
Possibles
2800
(109 toe)
(1) Quantities which can be recovered for less than 80 $/kg
(2) Quantities which can be recovered for less than 130 $/kg
(3) Present technology (Pressurised Water Reactor)
(4) Recoverable
(5) R/P: Proven Reserves/Production ratio
In place
R/P = 204
600
Proven
R/P = 41 (5)
Enhanced
recovery
532
Yet to be
discovered
100
Probable
R/P = 61
Proven
100
Proven
120
R/P = 65
39,5 (2)
143
143
(4)
22,7 (1) 80
LIQUID
NATURAL
NON-
COAL +
URANIUM
(3)
HYDROCARBONS
GAS
CONVENTIONAL
LIGNITE
Source : BP Statistical Review, CEA, IFP / DSEP

5. THE PLACE OF AFRICA IN THE WORLD OIL RESERVES
(Proven oil reserves as at 1st January 2003)
CIS
7.5%
TOTAL : 143 Gt
Canada
0.7%
USA
2.9%
Europe
1.8%
Mexico
1.2%
North Africa
3.9%
Middle East*
64.9%
Venezuela
7.4%
Indonesia
0,5%
Oceania
3.2%
West Africa
3.2%
* includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Yemen
Source: BP Statistical Review

6. ESTIMATED PROVEN RESERVES AND PRODUCTION FOR MAJOR AFRICAN OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES
36 000
Libya
1,48
25 000
Nigeria
2,12
11 300
Algeria
1,86
5 400
Angola
0,92
3 700
Egypt
0,62
2 500
Gabon
0,30
1 500
Congo
0,26
1 100
Proven Reserves (Mb)
Equatorial Guinea
0,18
Production (Mb/d)
900
Chad
0,18
563
Sudan
0,12
Février 2004
Source: BP Statistical Review, EIA, Oil & Gas Journal

7. CRUDE PRICE VARIATION 100 $ 2002 90 (1875) (1911) Dissolution
$ current
Rockefeller
of Standard Oil 80
Period of
control by
(1979) Iranian 70
revolution
(1990) 60
Rockefeller
Irak/
(1928) Achnacarry
Kuwait 50
agreement
(1973) Yom
war
Kippur war 40
(1960)
Foundation 30
of OPEC 20 10
1861
1871
1881
1891
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
: USA average, : Arabian Light posted at Ras Tanura, : Brent Spot
Source : BP Stat. Review

8. OIL PRICES REFERENCES
Production costs $ / bbl
Break even price for international oil companies $ 20 / bbl
Price to meet producing countries budget requirement $ / bbl

9. MAIN OIL FLOWS IN 2000 (Mt)
290
165 80
125
1120 90
135
165 80

10. EVOLUTION OF AFRICA’S SHARE IN WORLD CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION
Thousands barrels per day
13690 b/d
(12,2 %)
120000
100000
7803 b/d
(10,5 %)
Africa
80000
Asia Pacific
5047 b/d
(9,0 %)
Middle East
60000
Europe & Eurasia
S. & Cent. America
40000
North America
20000
1975
2000
2025
Source: BP Statistical Review, Energy Information Administration

11. MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO THE USA IN 2003 (‘000 b/d)
113
USA
Total imports = 9 646
From Africa = 1 466
Algeria
Nigeria
Gabon
838
Congo
131 23
Angola
361
Source: Energy Information Administration

12. MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO THE EUROPEAN UNION IN 2002 (‘000 b/d)
Total imports = 9 652
From Africa = 1 806
325 75
745
Algeria
Libya
Egypt
Nigeria
Cameroon
375
Gabon
Congo
122
164
Angola
Source: European Commission

13. MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO ASIA IN 2002 (‘000 b/d)
China(1)
Total imports = 1 209
From Africa = 272
100
Sudan 96
Other Africa
Nigeria 76
OECD Asia Pacific(2)
Total imports = 6 738
From Africa = 331
Gabon
Other Africa
162 10
Angola 93 66
(1) 2001 data (2) OECD Asia Pacific includes Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea
Source: International Energy Agency, China OGP

14. SHARE OF HYDROCARBONS IN THE ECONOMY OF AFRICAN COUNTRIES - 2002* -
% of revenus
Country
% of GDP
% of exports
ANGOLA
CAMEROON
CONGO
GABON
NIGERIA
EQUAT. GUINEA 45 5 67 73 40 86 90 60 94 81 95 90 20 80 60 83 61
* Estimates
Source : ,CRS, World Bank, IMF,
CIA World Factbook 2002, EIA
AF021 - April 2004

15. KEY PRODUCING ZONES Caspian Area
Gulf of
Mexico
30 Gb
West
Africa
3 Gb
27 Gb