1. Aging Population Vicky Yao Feb.18th,2012

2. CONTENT Definition Aging around the world Aging in China

3. Definition “Aging of population is a summary term for shifts in the age distribution of a population toward older ages. ’’

4. Aging around the world Population ageing is widespread across the world. It is most advanced in the most highly developed countries. However the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing,one of the top institutions looking at global population ageing, has concluded that population ageing has slowed considerably in Europe and will have the greatest future impact in Asia.

5. According to U.S Census Bureau Report, people above 65 years of age will double in representation of the whole by 2040. Elders 65 and above represent today 7 percent of the world’s population. It is predicted that within 30 years it will double to 14 percent.

7. The Graying of the United States

8. Reasons The dying rate is decreasing in recent years because of better medical treatment, which make the elder living longer, in hot economics today. With longer education time, the age of women having their first baby after marriage has grown, too. People are more likely to settle down at a later age, having already settled into their career.

10. In industrialized countries, the number of people reaching retirement age is growing, while the number of working age people is declining.

11. Influences lack of human resource (Labor supply depends on the number of working age population with working age population activities rate.) more retired people high social stress

12. Aging in China Causes of Population Aging in China Population Aging—China’s Disadvantages Population Aging—China’s Advantages How Can China Cope with Population Aging?

13. Causes of Population Aging in China One more special: China carried out birth control in the 1970s, which caused the steep birth rate declines.

14. 4www.conference-board.org © 2009 The Conference Board, Inc. Fertility Decline in China

15. 6www.conference-board.org © 2009 The Conference Board, Inc. Declining Death Rates for China’s Men from their Late Forties through all Older Age Groups

16. 7www.conference-board.org © 2009 The Conference Board, Inc. Declining Death Rates for China’s Women from their Late Forties through all Older Age Groups

17. 26www.conference-board.org © 2009 The Conference Board, Inc. Median Age of Asian Populations, 2000-2050 Country Japan South Korea China Indonesia India Pakistan 2000 41.3 32.0 30.0 24.8 22.7 18.8 2010 44.6 38.0 34.9 28.2 25.0 22.1 2020 48.5 43.4 37.9 32.0 28.1 25.3 2030 52.1 48.1 41.3 35.4 31.7 28.2 2040 54.3 51.9 44.1 38.4 35.3 30.9 2050 54.9 45.0 41.1 38.6 34.1 Source: United NaEons populaEon database: hHp://esa.un.org/unpp

18. 9www.conference-board.org © 2009 The Conference Board, Inc. Population concentrated in working ages  China has a demographic window of opportunity, which has been benefiting China’s economy for over 2 decades and will continue to do so for several more decades.  Not only is child dependency low today, so is aged dependency.  Today’s elderly cohorts are comparatively small. Most were born and raised before the PRC was founded, during war, invasion, economic dislocation.  Therefore, most of China’s population today is in the working age groups. They tend to be healthier than the old, and they at least have the potential to work and produce.  Labor force age groups have increased faster than China’s total population for 3 decades.

19. 10www.conference-board.org © 2009 The Conference Board, Inc. Employment Challenges  The huge and growing working age groups have posed the challenges of increasing the numbers of jobs as well as raising job productivity.  The most recent decade—job growth has barely kept up with population growth in labor force ages. Productivity per worker has increased rapidly.  Now with the global economic downturn, employment headaches are fast becoming salient.

20. 12www.conference-board.org © 2009 The Conference Board, Inc. China, 2008 Population Structure China, 2008 800006000040000200000 400006000080000 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 MaleFemale Population (in thousands) Source: U. S. Census Bureau, International Data Base

21. Populationinthousands 2045203520502015204020302005199520202010202520001990 18www.conference-board.org © 2009 The Conference Board, Inc. 200,000 150,000 400,000 Figure 1. Elderly in China, Population Projection to 2050 450,000 85+ 350,000 80-84 300,000 75-79 250,000 70-74 65-69 100,000 60-64 50,000 0 Year

22. 13www.conference-board.org © 2009 The Conference Board, Inc. Population Aging—China’s Disadvantages:  Not yet a highly developed country.  Weak pension and health care systems, especially in the countryside.  Current and increasing aging of the workforce.  Low urban retirement ages coupled with rapidly rising number of urbanites in their forties and older.  Elderly villagers left behind as their grown children migrate to urban areas.

23. 22www.conference-board.org © 2009 The Conference Board, Inc. Population Aging—China’s Advantages:  Culture of strong family ties and widespread expectation that family members will care for the elderly; this responsibility is also a legal one.  Unusually high levels of literacy and educational attainment for a developing country population.  High labor force participation among men and women. As population ages, China can more fully use its surplus labor and currently underutilized workers.  Compared to most developing countries, China’s people have better access to housing, food, land for growing food, and other basic needs.  The Chinese government is reasonably competent and actively dealing with issues of an aging population.  China has plenty of time to learn from other countries.

24. 27www.conference-board.org © 2009 The Conference Board, Inc. What can China do to cope with aging of the labor force and of the total population?  In coming decades, China can continue raising the productivity of its working age population, moving workers out of agriculture into higher value added jobs.  China can continue urbanizing. The country still has a low level of urbanization for its current level of development.  Keep training adult workers to raise their human capital.  China can continue emphasizing education—raising the literacy and educational level of the population, especially of the younger working cohorts.

25. 28www.conference-board.org © 2009 The Conference Board, Inc. Other proposals:  Implement a nationwide rural and urban health insurance system for all ages including elderly.  Tell workers now that their future retirement age, when they will be eligible for pension or social security, will rise gradually from 60 to 70 for successive future retiring cohorts. (Many developed countries are now raising legal retirement ages.)  Allow voluntary and for-profit organizations to operate everywhere to help serve the needs of the elderly.

26. Can China cope with population aging ?

27. 31www.conference-board.org © 2009 The Conference Board, Inc. China can cope with population aging  China has many advantages in the coming decades. China can learn from the successes & mistakes of developed countries already dealing with severe population aging.  China has hundreds of millions of low productivity workers who can be used more productively in future.  Chinese society has good customs of loving, caring for, and supporting the elderly, like other rapidly aging East Asian societies—Japan, South Korea for example.  China is good at adapting to new challenges.

28. With the arrival of aging, there will be more elderly people.

29. So,we have to think about the matter that how we should treat old people. 1.The responsibility of the government 2.What can society do 3.What should we do

30. Government should concern about the health of the elderly, and provide more medical facilities for them.

31. Public facilities should be asked to facilitate （便利） the elderly. Strengthen the old-age social security.

32. Everyone should think about their feelings,and give them more love.

33. Enrich the cultural life of the elderly. Encourage elderly people to participate in social activities.

34. Everyone should respect and care for the elderly. Don’t regard them as useless.

35. Childrens should spend more time with their parents. No matter what you do with them,they will be so happy.

36. What parents want is not money but more love. The love between you will never be measured with money.