1. Changing Demographics and Workforce Trends KMSA April 22, 2004 Nancy Laprade nancye.laprade@ky.gov Education Cabinet - Kentucky Workforce Investment Board

2. FIVE NEW RULES…  New Workforce Rules for the New Demographics and the New Economy of Kentucky Ron Crouch – Kentucky State Data Center

3. #1: Kentucky is experiencing growth in the mature workforce  The Kentucky population grew by 356,473 (9.7%) between 1990 and 2000 with a 46% increase in the older baby boomers (ages 45-54) 7% decrease in the baby busters (ages 25-34) This decline resulted not from out migration, but from a smaller population cohort replacing the larger younger baby boom cohort born between 1955 and 1964

4. Implications of Rule #1:  This aging workforce reality will require employers to retrain and retool their mature workforce as skill requirements change more rapidly in the knowledge economy  As people live longer, they will have to work longer so they don’t run out of income before they run out of life (1/5 th rule)

5. By 2005, out of 100 people age 65...  Only one will have a net worth of $5 million or more  41 will still be working  54 (over half) will be broke “Investing in the Future,” by Curt Hage, Community Banker, Jan. 2002 Information courtesy of Ed Barlow, Creating The Future, Inc.

6. #2: Bubba is in trouble…  Kentucky is moving from a muscle power economy to a knowledge economy  Converging economic factors - Globalization Science and Technology Increasing rate of change and use of technology Organizational Dynamics Close to customer Speed to market Changing relationships with employees

7. Implications of Rule # 2: Continuous education (life long learning) and higher skill levels are becoming more and more critical if workers and businesses are to compete in the knowledge economy As the Kentucky population ages, the need for service sector jobs requiring higher levels of education (i.e. health care) will increase

8. Implications of Rule # 2: Changing relationships between employers and employees Outsourcing… contract work Workers will have to become more responsible for their own learning and career development

9. # 3: Kentucky’s women enter the workforce at higher numbers than men  Between 1990 and 2000- The female workforce in Kentucky grew by 129,464 women (17%) The male workforce grew by only 79,122 (8%)  Women are becoming better educated than men and moving into more white collar jobs

10. Implications of Rule #3:  The female workforce may need more services such as child care or adult day care  Some worry about a growing divide between male and female workers with women being better prepared for the the knowledge economy than men

11. #4: Kentucky’s workforce will become more diverse  Between 1990 and 2000 Kentucky’s population grew by 9.7% while the Non-Hispanic White population grew by 6.8% Black population grew by 12.6% Asian population grew by 75.1% Hispanic population grew by 172.6%

12. Implications of Rule #4:  Employers will have to rely more and more on minority workers and understand cultural differences and diversity issues  This could be a particular challenge for aging white workers who have not had to deal with diversity issues to any significant degree

13. #5: The workforce shortages will be even more dire in Kentucky than the U.S.  According to the U.S. Census Bureau the number of prime age workers will grow by 7.1 percent total in the U.S. over the next 25 years, while the prime age workers will be down 11.5 percent in Kentucky. The discrepancy lies in higher immigration and fertility rates in the U.S. as a whole.

14. Skilled Worker Gap  By 2010 there will be a “skilled worker gap” of 5.3 million workers in the U.S., and by 2020 this gap will reach 14 million jobs.  By comparison, what employers experienced in 1999 and 2000 was a minor irritation. The shortage won’t be about having to cut an extra shift. It will be about not being able to fill the first and second shift too. Anthony Carnevale, Educational Testing Service

15. Implications of Rule #5:  We must “leave no worker behind”  Skills gaps will be even more significant than the projected general shortage of workers  A global war for talent will exist as developed and developing economies pursue workers with advanced skills

16. Implications of Rule #5:  Employers will need to rethink working arrangements for the aging workforce as they work longer Part-time Flexible work schedules Project work Phased retirement

17. Part-time by choice  70% of part-time workers in their prime working years (ages 25-65) are working part-time by choice  Of the more than 9.5 million working part-time by choice, nearly 40% of those workers are working part-time for reasons related to work-life balance- childcare, personal or family obligations or education Employment Policy Foundation – November 2003

18. AARP Policy Paper  Aging and Work- A View from the United States Sara Rix, Ph.D. February 2004 www.aarp.org/ppi

19. Labor Force Participation Rates of Persons Aged 45 and Older by Sex Actual 2002 and Projected 2010-2050 (in percentages) Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2003; Toossi, 2002. Sex and Age 20022010201520202050 Both Sexes 45-5482.183.884.184.083.4 55-6461.860.961.660.860.3 65+13.314.816.216.313.4 Men 45-5488.587.887.3 87.1 55-6469.267.066.866.166.2 65+17.819.521.0 17.3 Women 45-5476.080.081.180.879.9 55-6455.155.256.755.854.7 65+9.911.112.512.610.1

20. AARP Conclusions  Anticipated labor demand coupled with a huge supply of older men and women who say- at least at the present- that they want to work in retirement would seem to point to increases in the labor force participation of older Americans

21. In closing…  The key economic and workforce development strategy for the 21 st century is aligning with a world that will be characterized by complexity, diversity, and extraordinary pace of change. Ed Barlow, Creating the Future, Inc.