Human Population Describe factors that affect population growth

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Human Population Describe factors that affect population growth
Target: Discuss human population dynamics by Describe factors that affect population growth Interpret population graphs Compare population growth issues in developed vs. developing countries

Global Trends Quiz

How is population size affected by birth rates and death rates?
Population change = (Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration) Crude Birth Rate: number of live births per 1,000 people in a population in a given year Crude Death Rate: number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population in a given year Annual rate of natural population change (%) = (Birth rate – Death rate)/1,000 person x 100

World 21 9 All developed countries 11 10 All developing countries 24 8
Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate World 21 9 All developed countries 11 10 All developing countries 24 8 Developing countries (w/o China) 27 9 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

How fast is the world’s population growing?
Exponential population growth has not disappeared but is occurring at a slower rate. Between 1963 to 2004, annual rate of natural population change dropped from 2.2% to 1.25%. Annual rate of natural population change differs between developed and developing countries: In 2004, 0.1% in developed countries In 2004, 1.5% in developing countries

10 most populated countries
China © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 1.3 billion 1.4 billion India 1.1 billion 1.4 billion USA 294 million 349 million Indonesia 219 million 308 million Brazil 179 million 211 million Pakistan 10 most populated countries 159 million 229 million Russia 144 million 137 million Bangladesh 141 million 205 million Japan 128 million 121 million Nigeria 137 million 206 million 2004 2025

How long does it take to double the number of people on the planet?
Rule of 70: Doubling time (in years) = 70/ rate of growth (%) Using the current annual rate of natural growth… 70 / 1.25% = 56 years for the world’s population to double 70 / 2.8% = 25 years for Nigeria’s population to double

How have global fertility rates changed?
Replacement-Level Fertility: number of children a couple must bear to replace themselves 2.1 in developed countries as high as 2.5 in developing countries Total Fertility Rate: average number of children a woman typical has during reproductive years 1.5 in developed countries 3.1 in developing countries with 5.2 in Africa in 2004

TFR – Total Fertility Rates
World 5 children per woman 2.8 Developed countries 2.5 1.6 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Developing countries 6.5 3.1 Africa 6.6 5.1 Latin America 5.9 2.6 Asia 5.9 2.6 Oceania 3.8 2.1 North America 3.5 TFR – Total Fertility Rates 2.0 Europe 2.6 1.4 1950 2004

Population (billions)
Projected Population 12 11 High (2.5) High 10.6 10 Med. (2.0) 9 Low (1.5) Medium 8.9 8 Population (billions) 7 6 Low 7.2 5 4 3 2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year

TFR for USA 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Births per woman 2.1 2.0 1.5 Baby boom
( ) Replacement level 1.0 0.5 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year

Population in millions
600 571 500 400 Population in millions 292 300 Total population 200 76 100 Projections 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year USA Population Growth

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
United States Mexico Canada © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning 294 million Population (2004) 106 million 32 million Projected population (2025) 349 million 150million 36 million Infant mortality rate 6.7 25 5.2 77 years Life expectancy 75 years 79 years 2.0 Total fertility rate (TFR) 2.8 1.7 Demographic Data 21% % population under age 15 35% 18% 12% % population over age 65 5% 13% \$36,110 Per capita GDP PPP \$8,790 \$31,892

47 years Life expectancy 77 years Married women working outside the home 8% 81% 15% High school graduates 83% 10% Homes with flush toilets 98% 2% Homes with electricity 99% 10% Living in suburbs 52% 1900 \$3 Hourly manufacturing job wage (adjusted for inflation) 2000 \$15 1.2 Homocides per 100,000 people 5.8

How do these Factors affect birth rates and fertility rates?
Importance of child labor Cost of raising a family Availability of pension Urbanization Education and employment for women Infant mortality Average age at marriage Availability of reliable birth control methods and legal abortion Religious beliefs & traditions

What are indicators of overall health?
Life expectancy: average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live Infant morality rate: number of babies out of every 1,000 born who die before their first birthday Single best measure of a society’s quality of life 40 countries have lower infant mortality rates than the US due to… Inadequate health care Drug addiction High teenage birth rate

How is population size affected by age structure?
Age structure: distribution of males and females in each age group 3 age categories Prereproductive (0 to 14) Reproductive (15 to 44) Postreproductive (ages 45 and up)

Age Structure Diagrams
Male Female Male Female 30% of world population is under 15 years old. Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States Australia Canada Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Male Female Male Female Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

USA Population Male Female Age 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female Age 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Percent of population 1900

Age 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 Percent of population 2000
100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female Age 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 Percent of population 2000

Age 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 Percent of population 2050
100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female Age 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 Percent of population 2050

United States (highly developed)
Population (2004) 294 million 179 million Brazil (moderately developed) 137 million Nigeria (less developed) Population projected (2025) 349 million 211 million 206 million Infant mortality rate 6.7 33 100 Life expectancy 77 years 71 years 52 years Fertility rate (TFR) 2.0 2.2 5.7 %Population under age 15 21% 30% 44% % Population over age 65 12% 6% 3% Per capita GNI PPP \$36,110 \$7,450 \$800 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

Global Aging 40 35 30 25 Age Distribution (%) 20 15 10 5 1950 1970
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 Year Under age 15 Age 60 or over Age 80 or over

How can economic development help reduce birth rates?
Demographic Transitions: as countries become more industrialized, first their death rates then birth rates decline. 4 stages Preindustrial Transitional Industrial Postindustrial

Stages of Demographic Transition
Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial Low High Relative population size (number per 1,000 per year) Birth rate and death rate 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Birth rate Death rate Total population Low Increasing Very high Decreasing Low Zero Negative Growth rate over time Stages of Demographic Transition

What happens when demographic trapping occurs?
Demographic Trap: when a country stays at stage 2 because population growth exceeds economic growth. Reasons why countries get caught: Shortage of skilled workers to produce high-tech products to compete in a global economy Lack of financial capital and other resources Sharp rise of debt to developed countries Decreased economic assistance from developed countries

Why is empowering women important in reducing birth rates?

India vs. China India China Percentage of world 17% population 20%
1.1 billion 1.3 billion Population (2025) (estimated) 1.4 billion 1.4 billion Illiteracy (%of adults) 47% 17% Population under age 15(%) 36% 22% Population growth rate (%) 1.7% 0.6% Total fertility rate 3.1 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970) 1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972) Infant mortality rate 64 32 Life expectancy 62 years 71 years GDP PPP per capita \$2,650 \$4,520