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Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India India’s Energy Security Perspectives “Scenarios & Strategies”

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Presentation on theme: "Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India India’s Energy Security Perspectives “Scenarios & Strategies”"— Presentation transcript:

1 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India India’s Energy Security Perspectives “Scenarios & Strategies”

2 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Contents Introduction Oil and Gas Scenario Promoting Conservation and Efficiency Technology Absorption Challenges and Opportunities Perspective Core Strategies

3 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Average Annual GDP & Population Growth : 2005-2030 Source: EIA, IEO2008

4 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Fuel for the rising Indian population Source : Population Reference Bureau India's population reach 2 billion? It is a real possibility over the long term

5 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Growth in Electricity Sector

6 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Prices – High & Volatile

7 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India  Since 2003, world oil consumption has growth has averaged 1.8% per year.  Non-OECD countries, especially China, India, and the Middle East, constitutes the largest part of this growth. Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2008 1.0 (est.) Despite High Prices, the demand is stronger

8 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type Liquids Natural Gas Coal 33% 29% 8% Renewables Nuclear 24% 6% Share of World Total HistoryProjections 37% 23% 27% 8% 6% Source: EIA, IEO2008

9 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India World Liquids Consumption by Region Source: EIA, IEO2008 Non-OECD % Change 2005-2030 11% 102% 3% 7% 42% 62% 43% 47%

10 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Worldwide Decline in Production  Current Annual Oil Production in World : 85 Million bpd  World’s Average Production Decline : 3.3 Million bpd / 4% Per Annum  Saudi production : 10.5 Million bpd  World needs One new Saudi Arabia every three years to offset the decline Does it look like that top 10 International Oil Companies have already passed Peak production ??

11 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Crude – Indigenous Production and Imports HistoryProjections

12 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India India :Yawning Demand Supply Gap – “Oil” Oil production almost stagnated ~34 MMT Oil consumption – more than 3 times of oil production Huge supply demand gap > 80 MMT Crude oil import burden ~ USD 64 Billion [Rs. 256,000 Crore] > 33% of total import Source: BP Statistical Review 2007

13 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Deepwater Oil and Gas to show strong growth

14 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Worldwide Unconventional Production, 2005 - 30 Source: EIA, IEO2008

15 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Industrial Transportation Residential and Commercial Electric Power Projections Histor y million barrels per day Global Transportation sector dominates liquid fuel consumption Source : AEO 2008

16 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Projections Histor y Light-Duty Vehicles Rail Heavy-Duty Vehicles Water Air quadrillion Btu Transportation Energy – More for Light Vehicles Source : AEO 2008

17 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Transport Fuel Forecast - 2030  2008 : 800 Million Cars Worldwide  Car and Oil Demand growing  No existing alternative to Oil as fuel  Demand Growth in Transport Fuel :  OECD : + 27 %  Non OECD : + 111 %

18 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Transport Fuel Demand Look 2014, India to reach 4 th Position in light Vehicle Market after US, China & Japan Look 2010, Ten Thousand New Buses for New Delhi Jazz, Cruse, M 300, Santa Fe, A-Star, Escudo, Ingenio, C 30, C 70 – the upcoming cars

19 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India What is driving the Indian Liquid demand ? Source : MoPNG

20 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Optimizing Fuel Consumption Estimation of Energy Efficiency Scenario in India (Saving Potential): Total Energy Consumption : 411 MMTOE Oil & Gas Consumption : 168 MMTOE Average Saving Potential : 22% Total Oil & Gas Saving Potential: 37 MMTOE Money Equivalent : Rs. 74,000 Crore

21 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Fuel losses at Intersections Estimation of Fuel wasted by vehicles at cross sections/ junctions/ signals due to idling / congestion of traffic Daily Traffic Entering 12 Intersections in Delhi17.5 Lakhs (Year : 2004) Fuel Loss at 12 Intersections in Delhi 16828 Litres per day (CNG : 6979 Litres, Diesel : 2349 Litres & Petrol : 7500 Litres) Fuel Loss in city of Delhi (600 Intersections) 858967 Litres per day (CNG : 354534 Lts, Diesel : 121054 Lts & Petrol : 383378 Lts) Daily Monetary Loss due to the Fuel Loss in Delhi Rs. 3.82 Crore per day. ( @ Current Fuel Prices) Annual Monetary Loss due to the Fuel Loss in Delhi Rs. 1395 Crore per Annum. (@ Current Fuel Prices) Annual Fuel Loss in Delhi 1.97 Million Barrels petroleum products approx. (~0.27 MMT) Extrapolated to nine Metros, the annual fuel loss is approx. 6.36 Million barrels (~ 0.9 MMT) per annum, approx. Rs. 4506 Crore at current fuel prices.

22 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Natural Gas – Indigenous Production and LNG Import

23 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India India: Upcoming Sources of Natural Gas 110 + MMSCMD Now 250 + MMSCMD by 2011 - 12 Major Contributors ONGC moving ahead 56 MMSCMD now (Offshore+Onshore) G1 – GS15 : 2 MMSCMD by 2009 Vashistha + S1 : 6 MMSCMD by 2011-12 KG DWN 98/2 : 27 MMSCMD by 2013-14 Mahanadi : 12 MMSCMD by 2013-14 OIL JV LNG Petronet LNG Capacity doubling to 12 MMMTPA Import at Dabhol, Kochi & Mangalore RLNG Reliance additions 40 MMSCMD by 2008 80 MMSCMD by 2009 120 MMSCMD by 2010

24 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India India’s LNG Supply Outlook SourceCapacity MMTPAOwnersCommissioning PLL Dahej5 (Planned for Expansion to 10) Petronet LNGCommissioned PLL Kochi5Petronet LNGPlanned by 2011 Dabhol5NTPC, GAILBeing Revived Hazira2.5 (Being expanded to 3.6) Shell & TotalCommissioned Mundra5GSPC, Adani, Essar, HPCL Planned by 2013 Mangalore1.25ONGCPlanned 2011-12 Enmore5IOCPlanned  LNG Imports in India to triple in the XI th Five Year Plan

25 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Global LNG Trade  99 LNG Carriers to be delivered in 2008 -09 & 32 ordered for 2010-12  5 Liquefaction Plants to come on line in 2009, another 7 expected in 2010-12  Production to Grow by 86% by 2016

26 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Global Gas Trade Evolvement Present Future (Source: CRISIL Report on Natural Gas: Annual Review)

27 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Impact of Technology – Shaping Future of Mumbai High MH a “Matured field” Several rounds of inputs during last 32 years. Major redevelopment program launched 2000-2001. Redevelopment program of installation of new platforms, expansion of surface facilities and drilling of infill wells. Implementation spanning over seven years, reversed declining trend, boosted production and added new reserves.

28 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Technology Induction “Increasing Recovery - Arresting Decline” Q Marine Seismic Geo-Steering Electromagnetic Sea Bed Logging Stim Gun Stimulation Coil Tubing Assisted Stimulation Tubing Disappearing Smart Plug Smart Unmanned platform Compact Cyclonic Degasser Virtual Metering Intelligent Auto Gas Lifts Semi Intelligent Segmented Completion Under Balanced Drilling

29 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Proposed Investment XIth Plan (PSU): –ONGC 82672 Crore –OVL 58674 Crore –OIL 10176 Crore –IOCL 45215 Crore –HPCL 32285 Crore –BPCL 12553 Crore –GAIL 12159 Crore …etc. Total 2,69,000+ Crores Oil and Gas Sector Investment (2007-2017) ($ Bn) Overall investment in Oil & Gas sector in the next 10 years ~ $80-100 bn Attracting investment from global players – directly and in partnerships (PI/ JV) Taping domestic capital markets Challenges & Opportunities : Investments Planned

30 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Perspective World Wide energy Consumption projected to grow by 50% by 2030. 84% growth in Non OECD countries like India and China. Crude Oil prices expected to remain high New Sources available mainly in harsh environments

31 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Perspective Technologies to push recoveries from aging fields Look for acreages abroad Huge Infrastructure Growth supported by Institutions Increased R&D efforts for alternatives

32 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Some Core Strategies for India Moderate the demand through improved efficiency Expand and Diversify supplies from non conventional sources Partnering Global Energy Security Fast Track Technology Initiatives to improve recovery and explore harsh environments

33 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., India Thanks the next stop for India Population  2 billion  Oil, why not ?.2 billion

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