1. I. I.Energy US EIA World energy consumption projected to rise 53% from 2008 to 2035 Greatest projected increase in non-OECD countries (85% vs. 18% in OECD countries) What is the OECD?OECD

2. I. I.Energy Energy use in non- OECD Asia (incl. India & China) to more than double by 2035 US EIA

3. I. I.Energy A. A.Conventional 1. 1.Fossil Fuels a. a.Oil Transportation, electricity generation, heating World’s dominant source of energy for past several decades Expected to remain important for next 20 years - Predicted change: 34  29% of total energy consumption through 2035 Greatest consumption by OECD nations, but gap closing 1999 – Non-OECD nations consumed 58% as much as OECD nations 2030 – Projected to use ~90% as much Most of increase from transportation sector (few alternative fuel sources)

4. I. I.Energy A. A.Conventional 1. 1.Fossil Fuels a. a.Oil Benefits Readily available High energy density Inexpensive Existing technology & infrastructure Concerns Combustion releases pollutants (CO 2, NOx, SOx, PM) Extraction harms environment Accidental releases, especially in ocean Energy security – US imports 60% of oil Long-term availability (unconventional sources)

5. Unconventional Sources Oil sands Extra-heavy oil Coal-to-liquids Gas-to-liquids Shale oil Biofuels US EIA

6. I. I.Energy A. A.Conventional 1. 1.Fossil Fuels b. b.Coal Electricity generation (60% of global coal use, 2008) Main fuel source in China for industry Use expected to grow, mostly fueled by Asia, especially China (78% of global growth) and India Benefits Inexpensive Abundant, easy to recover Requires minimal processing Existing technology & infrastructure Concerns Environmental degradation from mining Requires extensive transportation system (rail) Combustion  pollutants (CO 2, PM, Hg, NOx, SOx) Counter: “Clean coal” (requires more processing)

7. US EIA

8. I. I.Energy A. A.Conventional 1. 1.Fossil Fuels c. c.Natural gas (methane) Use predicted to grow almost as fast as coal Equaled coal (BTU basis) in 1999 Increase fueled by price, environmental concerns, energy security issues, market deregulation Benefits Inexpensive Abundant, easy to recover Existing technology & infrastructure Burns relatively cleanly (little PM, etc.), almost no solid waste High efficiency (90% vs. 27% for electricity) Energy security – US produces 85% of demand vs. 40% for oil Concerns Greenhouse gas Adequate long-term supply

9. I. I.Energy A. A.Conventional 1. 1.Fossil Fuels d. d.Gas (methane) hydrates Worldwide reserves estimated at up to 100,000 trillion cubic feet of gas (10,000 Gt carbon), twice the carbon in all other fossil fuel reserves on earth Located beneath marine sediments at 300-500 m depth Common off SE US, Siberia, Alaska Benefits Extremely abundant Existing infrastructure for distribution Burns relatively cleanly (little PM, etc.), almost no solid waste High efficiency (90% vs. 27% for electricity) Energy security – US has extensive reserves Concerns Greenhouse gas Damage to sea floor Catastrophic effects of massive release

10. I. I.Energy A. A.Conventional 2. 2.Nuclear Derived from splitting ("fissioning“) of uranium atoms Uranium mined, processed to increase fissionable material, made into fuel rods Uranium atoms split inside reactor, generate heat  steam  electricity World capacity projected to rise from 379 GW in 2007 to 592 GW in 2035 Highest growth projected for developing world, especially Asia Benefits Clean (few pollutants or GHGs) Relatively inexpensive Existing technology & infrastructure Compact fuel & waste (high energy density – 1 lb of U = 3.5 million lbs of coal) Energy security – US has extensive reserves Concerns Safety – Possibility of accidents Strategic risks – Material stolen and used to create weapon Waste disposal – Contamination of ground water, soil, animals, plants, people GHG production from mining & transportation of uranium

11. US EIA

13. I. I.Energy B. B.Renewable Sources either can’t be used up or are replenished quickly through natural processes In CA, eligible renewable energy sources include 1) 1)Biomass and waste 2) 2)Geothermal 3) 3)Solar 4) 4)Small hydroelectric 5) 5)Wind energy Use for electricity generation expected to increase by 128.5% (3%/year) worldwide between 2007 and 2035 18% of total electricity generation in 2007  23% in 2035 Growth in renewable energy resources expected to be constrained by moderate fossil fuel prices Renewable energy development expected to be increases in hydroelectric (54%), esp. in non-OECD Asia & Brazil, and wind (26%), esp. in China