1. Pathways to Permanent Residence: Transition Matters Metropolis Conference, March 12 th -15 th, 2014 Research and Evaluation Branch

2. Concepts and Definitions Transitions: Trends –Volumes, Shares of Permanent Residence Admissions –Closer look at the economic category Economic Outcomes of permanent residents (PR) who transitioned from temporary residence –Characteristics of TRs (Canadian work experience, immigration category, skill level) and their post-transition economic outcomes Conclusions In this presentation … 2

3. Temporary residents are grouped according to the main reason they have been authorized to enter and stay temporarily in Canada. They include temporary foreign workers, foreign students, humanitarian population, and other temporary residents. A transition from the temporary resident to permanent resident population refers to a change from temporary to permanent resident status (e.g. from temporary foreign worker (TFW) to federal skilled worker (FSW) immigration category). Over the last 5-6 years policy changes have been implemented to make Canada more attractive as a PR destination for especially skilled temporary residents with Canadian work/study experience. Several programs have a built-in pathways to permanent residence: –Canadian Experience Class (CEC) –Québec Experience Program (PEQ) –Federal Skilled Worker (FSW) –Provincial Nominee Programs (PNP) –Live in Care Giver Program (LCP) What is a “transition” to permanent residence? 3

4. Entries of temporary residents / Permanent resident admissions Canada, 1995 to 2012 Steady increase in the entries of temporary residents since the 1990s, particularly among TFW and FS. TFW (213,600 people) accounted for 51% of all temporary resident entries in 2012; FS (104,800 people) accounted for 25%. Between 1998 and 2010, permanent residence admissions ranged from 174,200 to 280,700. 4 p.a. = principal applicant s.d. = spouses and dependants

5. Transitions from temporary to permanent residence Canada, 1995 to 2012 Transitions roughly stable around 44,400 on average between 1995-2003, then increasing both in absolute number and share of permanent residence. In 2012, transitions accounted for 79,200 (or 31%) PR admissions. In 2012, transitions accounted for 43% of all economic immigrant p.a. admissions – from 15% in 2002. 5 Number of permanent resident admissions and transitions to permanent residence, Canada, 1995-2012

6. In 2012, transitions accounted for a total of 29,400 admissions of economic p.a., up from a low of 8,900 in 2002. Except for the CEC and LCP which are entirely driven from transitions, PN p.a. admissions are increasingly coming from transitions (63% in 2012 versus 23% for SW p.a.). Transitions and economic immigration (principal applicants) Canada, 1995 to 2012 6

7. Incidence of Employment earnings of Permanent Residents who transitioned from TR – with and without a Work Permit (WP) Incidence of Employment Earnings by Transition Type and Years Since Landing, tax year 2011 All Immigrants Economic PAs Incidence of employment earnings is highest for those who previously worked in Canada as a TR, this is especially true for those who transitioned to Economic PAs – In the first year post-transition (YSL=1), PRs with previous work experience in Canada had an incidence of employment earnings equal to 81%. The comparable incidence was 51% for those who transitioned without Canadian work experience and 62% for PRs without a previous TR status. – For Economic PAs, in the first year post-transition (YSL=1), those with previous work experience in Canada had an incidence of employment earnings equal to 92%. The comparable incidence was 79% for those who transitioned without Canadian work experience and 70% for PRs without a previous TR status. 7 Source: Slides 7 to 11 IMDB, 2011

8. Employment Earnings of Permanent Residents who transitioned from TR – with and without a Work Permit (WP) Average Employment Earnings by Transition Type and Years Since Landing, tax year 2011 All Immigrants Economic PA Average employment earnings are also highest for those who previously worked in Canada as TR and, again, higher for those who transitioned to Economic PAs – In the first year post-transition (YSL=1), PRs with previous work experience in Canada had average employment earnings equal to $38,000. The comparable average was $18,100 for those who transitioned without Canadian work experience and $20,000 for PRs without a previous TR status. – For Economic PAs, in the first year post-transition (YSL=1), those with previous work experience in Canada had average employment earnings equal to $44,000. The comparable average was $24,000 for those who transitioned without Canadian work experience and $26,000 for PRs without a previous TR status. 8

9. Employment Earnings of Permanent Residents – transitions (with WP) and non-transitions (no previous TR status) Average Employment Earnings by Immigrant Category by Years Since Landing, tax year 2011 Transition from TR (with WP) Non-transition (No previous TR status) PRs in all immigrant categories benefit from previous Canadian work experience, with higher average employment earnings than their counterparts who transitioned without having worked as a TR and, as displayed above, relative to their counterparts with no previous TR status. – In the first year post-transition (YSL=1), PRs with previous work experience in Canada had an earnings advantage of $18,000 (90%) over those who did not transition (no previous TR status). For the different immigrant categories the comparable earnings advantage at entry was: Economic PAs ($18,000, 69%)Economic SDs($14,500, 83%) Family Class ($15,200, 88%) Refugees ($7,000, 50% ) 9

10. Employment Earnings of Permanent Residents – transitions (with WP) and non-transitions (no previous TR status) Average Employment Earnings by Immigrant Category by Years Since Landing, tax year 2011 Transition from TR (with WP) Non-transition (No previous TR status) Since transitioned Economic PAs experience better economic outcomes than other transitioned categories, it interesting to look at the subcategories within the economic category : – In the first year post-transition (YSL=1), Economic PAs with previous work experience in Canada had an earnings advantage of $18,000 (69%) over those who did not transition (no previous TR status). For the different immigrant categories the comparable earnings advantage at entry was: SW PA ($21,500, 83%)CEC PA(no non-transition comparison) PN PA ($25,000, 93%) LCP PA (no non-transition comparison) 10

11. Employment Earnings of Permanent Residents by Intended Skill Level – transitions (with WP) and non-transitions (no previous TR status) Average Employment Earnings of Select Economic Categories (PAs) by Years Since Landing, tax year 2011 High-skilled – Transitioned with WP Low-skilled – Transitioned with WP 11 High-skilled – Non-transition (No previous TR Status)Low-skilled – Non-transition (No previous TR status)

12. Overall, some immigrants who transition from TRs have better economic outcomes than those without prior temporary residency in Canada. For those who do realize better economic outcomes, higher incidence of employment earnings and higher average employment earnings are observed immediately post- transition. Key characteristics of TRs affecting their post-transition outcomes: – Canadian work experience matters Those who transition to PRs having had a work permit as TRs have the strongest outcomes, while those who transition without having had a work permit have weaker outcomes than PRs with no previous TR status. – Immigrant category matters Those who transition into economic categories as principal applicants (PAs), including SW PAs, PN PAs, and CEC PAs, outperform those who transition into other immigrant categories. There are differences in outcomes observed for the PAs in different economic categories (SW, PN, LCP, CEC) which may be reflecting differences is human capital – Skill-level matters (based on intended occupation) High-skilled TRs with previous work experience who transition as PAs into economic categories (specifically, SW PA and PN PA) outperform their low-skilled counterparts. Overview: Economic Outcomes of Immigrants who transitioned from Temporary Residents (TRs) 12

13. Transitions have increased steadily since the early 2000s. Transitions account for increasing shares of permanent residence PR admissions--especially among economic immigrant p.a. admissions. Certain characteristics (Canadian work experience, immigration category, skill level) affect TRs’ post-transition outcomes in the initial years (i.e. the first five years following landing). Recent evidence shows that while official language proficiency, Canadian work experience and arranged employment are determinants of economic success in early years after landing, human capital factors like age (youth) and education are more effective determinants of economic success in the long run. Further ongoing research is needed to monitor the effectiveness of key factors in predicting both economic (and social) integration outcomes of first and second generation immigrants. Conclusions 13

14. Annex 14

15. Canadian Experience Class (CEC) Twelve months of skilled work experience in Canada in the three years before application for PR. National Occupational Classification (NOC) skill types 0, A or B. Minimum English and/or French requirements commensurate with the occupation in which skilled work experience was gained in Canada. Québec Experience Program (PEQ) Plan to live in Québec. Québec graduates who have obtained an eligible Québec diploma and have a knowledge of spoken French. Temporary foreign workers who are employed at time of application, have held a skilled job in Québec for at least 12 of the last 24 months and have a knowledge of spoken French. Federal Skilled Worker (FSW) PhD candidate eligibility stream. International student enrolled in a PhD program in Canada, or graduate of a PhD program in Canada. 1,000 applications for processing each year. Provincial Nominee Programs (PNP) Most provinces and territories can nominate people to immigrate to Canada. Requirements vary somewhat from program to program. Live-In Caregiver Program (LCP) Individuals who are qualified to provide care for children, elderly persons or persons with disabilities in private homes without supervision. Participants can apply for PR after having been working in Canada under the LCP for at least 24 months, or a total of 3,900 hours within four years of arriving in Canada. Programs with built-in pathways to permanence 15

16. Transitions have increased steadily since the early 2000s – from 42,000 (2002) to 79,200 (2012). Since 2008, economic immigrants (p.a. and s.d.) accounted for more than half of all transitions. Transitions from temporary to permanent residence Canada, 1995 to 2012 16 Source: CIC, RDM, Transitions FF 2012 extract; and RDM, Permanent residents, December 2012 extract.

17. Transitions into the Economic Class by Program, Canada, 2005- 2012 With their Provincial Nominee Programs, provinces are increasingly active in bringing in new PR through transitions. In 2012, almost 2 in five transitions (37%) as principal applicants into the Economic class is accounted for by provincial nominees. In 2005, this proportion was only 9%. 17

18. TFW / PN p.a. is the most frequent type among all transitions into the economic immigration category (10,400 or 24%). Five types account for 75% of all transitions into the economic immigration category. Most transitions into the economic immigration category have been TFWs (74%). Transitions into economic immigration Canada, 2012 18

19. Permanent Residents who transitioned from TR (with WP) in the Longitudinal Immigrant Database (IMDB) In 2010, half of TRs with a WP who transitioned to PR did so as Economic PAs (as captured in the IMDB population, i.e., the immigrant tax filing population) Economic PAs by Category Landing Year 2010, Tax Year 2011 Permanent Residents who transitioned from TR (with WP) Landing Year 2005-2010, in Tax Year 2011 19 Source: IMDB, 2011

20. In contrast, half of the TRs without a WP who transitioned to PR did so as Family Class (in 2011) (as captured in the IMDB population, i.e., the immigrant tax filing population) Permanent Residents who transitioned from TR (without WP) in the Longitudinal Immigrant Database (IMDB) Permanent Residents who transitioned from TR (without WP) Landing Year 2005-2010, in Tax Year 2011 Economic PAs by Category Landing Year 2010, Tax Year 2011 20 Source: IMDB, 2011