2 AP7Quantification of the impacts of future floods and low-flows on the economy in the transnational Meuse basin
3 Structure Definition of the terms in economic losses Evaluation QuestionnairesGerman perspective of assessment in flood lossesDrought lossesLiterature reviewPAWN (NL)EPIC Grid model (W)MIKE BasinOpen QuestionsDiscussion
4 Type of damages Direct flood losses: by inundation direct induced damages.direct flood losses postulate direct contact with water, e.g. buildings, inventory, traffic areas and agricultural areasdirect flood losses are subdivided in immobile and mobile damages.Indirect flood losses:indirect damages are not generated by direct contact with water. indirect damages are caused by detraction of economic activities. e.g.Immediate asset value losses; a short term consequence of inundation of business e.g. loss of production, disruption of economic activitiesInduced asset value losses; affected companies are suppliers of not affected companies (chain reaction)Prosperity damages, a long term consequence in a flood affected area due to lost of confidence in safety, absence of tourism, reduction of investments in the affected area.
5 Evaluation of direct flood losses Qualitative/Quantitative?QualitativeQuantitativQualitative assessment of flood damage by damage risk mapsA risk classification in e.g. negligible, low, medium, high vulnerability hazardMonetary assessment by damage functions corresponding to aggregated land use categoriesdamage functions yield damage in proportion to water level h or partially, to the intensity of flow (e.g. velocity/ times/ depths of flow)The proportion of the damage is multiplied by an asset value
6 Evaluation of direct flood losses Methodology of Quantitative monetary assessmentLand use categoryInundation area; -dephtStage damage function corresponding to land useRelative damageAsset value for land use category [€m-2]Damage per land use category [€]rel. damage [%]Waterdepht [m]Bachmann et. al. 2009
7 Evaluation of direct flood losses Methodology of Qualitative assessment=> damage risk map: Expressing the potential damage of vulnerableelements. Based on flood hazard and vulnerability
8 Evaluation of direct flood losses RegionQualitativeQuantitativeScaleMicro(local)Meso(regional)Macro(global)Wallonia(ULG – GxABT)X(ULG - HACH)France (EPAMA)Flanders (FHR)Netherlands(RWS)Germany (IWW)
9 Evaluation of direct flood losses RegionDamage functions / Vulnerability indicatorshvflowtvriseWallonia(GxABT)-(HACH)XFrance (EPAMA)Flanders (FHR)Netherlands(Deltares)Germany (IWW)
10 Evaluation of direct flood losses RegionDamage functions / Vulnerability indicatorsWallonia(ULG – GxABT)The damage risk map (restricted access), expressing the potential damage of vulnerable elements located in areas subject to flood hazard by overflowing rivers.The risk of damage is determined by the combination of two factors: the flood hazard and vulnerability. The risk of damage may be negligible, low, medium or high.(ULG - HACH)relative damage functions; loss model: FLEMO; damage ratio of the asset value; land registry income as an indicator for assessing the asset value; vulnerability based on combination of water depth, velocity, duration, water rising and social indicators recorded in the INS databaseFrance (EPAMA)The used damage functions yield damage in proportion to water level h or partially, to the flow velocity if v> 0.5m/s. A damage function is defined for each land use category .Flanders (FHR)relationship between a given water depth and the dependent damage factor for different land use category'sNetherlands(RWS)Stage damage functions (SDFs) are used to calculate the proportion of the maximum damage which actually occurs under given flood depths.Germany (IWW)Based on indirect damage functions. The used damage functions yield damage in proportion to water level h or partially, to the intensity of flow (e.g. velocity/ times/ depths of flow).
11 Land use data Region Available data Wallonia(GxABT) Wallonia (HACH) COSWWallonia (HACH)PICC DatabaseIGN DatabaseINSLand registry databaseFrance (EPAMA)CORINE Land CoverIGN mapsNon-digital InformationFlanders (FHR)Small Scale Land Use Map FlandersKADVECIndustrial ZonesTop50vGISMultinetTransmittingWater Collection PlantsWater SurfaceNetherlands(RWS)CORINECLUELanduse ScannerGermany (IWW)CORINE dataATKIS data
12 Land use categories Region Category groups (CORINE) Wallonia (GxABT) Artificial SurfacesAgricultural AreasForest and semi natural areasWet-landsWater bodiesothersWallonia(GxABT)housingroadrail and waterwaysnetworkX-Communitiesfacilities &publicutilitiesEconomicactivities(HACH)Flanders (FHR)Roads andRailwaysPoint elementsResidentialbuildingsUrban areaIndustrialIndustrial areaInfrastructureAirportCrop-landPastureNatureForests- Recreation
13 Land use categories Category groups (CORINE) Region Netherlands (RWS) Artificial SurfacesAgricul-tural AreasForest and semi natural areasWet-landsWater bodiesothersNetherlands(RWS)- Residential – high density- Residential – low density- CommercialPort areasInfrastructureConstruction/ minesarablelandpastureX-- RecreationFrance (EPAMA)town centre'shouses out oftownindustrial orcommercial areastransport network- equipments- otherGermany (IWW)private housing/ householdcontentsindustry/manufacturingsectorcommerce/service sectormixed usestate/public sectorCars,mobiletransportassetsleisure
15 Indirect losses Region Categories / economic sectors Data basis Wallonia (GxABT)-Wallonia(HACH)France (EPAMA)Vulnerability of:- crisis management and emergency services- services and activities required for recovery- activities potentially creating more damage (SEVESO,fuel, waste storage)- major networks (power stations, drinking water stations)- SIRENEPPRiICPEFlanders (FHR)Agriculture (pastures and croplands)IndustryHousesNetherlands(RWS)Germany (IWW)Trade, CommerceFinancial sectorPublic and private serviceGeomarketingData (infas)
16 Uncertainty Region Direct flood losses Method Indirect Flood Losses Wallonia (GxABT)-Wallonia (HACH)XFlood frequency uncertaintyFrance (EPAMA)Evaluated by expertsFlanders (FHR)Netherlands(RWS)Inundation depthprobability of floodingstage-damage functions(SDFs)maximum damage perland use type- land useGermany (IWW)Input variables
17 German perspective General Approach Land use categoryInundation area; -depthStage damage function corresponding to land useRelative damageAsset value for land use category [€m-2]Damage per land use category [€]rel. damage [%]Waterdepht [m]
18 German perspective Damage Categories Spatial Information : ATKIS Data (Vector data 1:25.000)Aggregation of the ATKIS object groupsto damage categories for meso-scale economic damagepotential analysisAllocation of damage functions and asset values to correspondingdamage categories
19 German perspective Example: Damage Category Aggregation Objektart ATKISCharacterisationCharacterisation Land use categoryIndex Category (mobil)Index Category (immobil)5101Stream, River, RivuletNot relevant in damage assessment5102chnnel5112Inland lake, artificial lake2111general residential building areaPrivate housing11012121Mining CompanyIndustry andCommerce21022122Disposal site2129Waste Water Treatment Plant2112
20 German perspective Damage functions of categories 1. Large number of damagefunctions in literature2. Representation of this varietyby stochastic interpretation=> Probability Density Functionfor each water level=> Population Mean=> damage function for economicassessment(Kutschera, 2008)
21 German perspective Damage function (industry immobile) - including uncertainty=> Quantile
22 German perspectiveSpecific Asset Values (stochastically evaluated)
23 German perspective Example Wupper (BMBF REISE) Land use data (ATKIS-Basis-DLM):Raster data: Resolution 25m x 25m per grid cell=> Considered catchment area 282km2 ( Elements)
24 0. national / partially common/ common approach Open Questions0. national / partially common/ common approachMonetary-/ Qualitative AssessmentSeparate consideration flood losses/drought lossesDirect flood losses mobile/immobileLand use dataDetermination of Land use categoriesFlood damage functions/which hydraulic input variables (t/h/v…)Assessment of direct/indirect losses
25 Open Questions 1. Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses - Existing damage functions in flood damage assessment
26 Open Questions 2. Land use data? - Suggestion CORINE data Advantage Disadvantage:- Available Europe wide- Free download maps/data#c5=all&c0=5&b_start=0&c11=landuse- Aggregation of damagecategories- Only 5 category groups(Artificial Surfaces, Agricultural Areas, Forest and semi natural areas, wetlands, water bodies)- Resolution (100m x 100m)=> more inaccurate thanATKIS Data (GermanApproach)
28 Open Questions 3. Aggregation of Land use data to Categories => CORINE Land use groups?Artificial SurfacesAgricultural AreasForest and semi natural areasWet-landsWater bodiesothers
29 Open Questions 4. Indirect flood losses? - Partially approaches exist but not tested- Data availability?- Time frame / Budget?
30 low flow losses Considered disciplines in AMICE project Navigation AgricultureWater supply (drinking water)EnergyAverage discharge of the Meuse: Q = 230 m3/sDecrease of discharge to Q = 130 m3/s=> economic problems occur (Woelders, Keizer; 2007)Decrease of discharge below Q = 1100 m3/s(water gauge Lobhit) sluices enclosed?
31 Low flow losses X Assessment of low flow situations Region Agriculture Public Water supplyNavigationEnergyWallonia(GxABT)XWallonia (HACH)France (EPAMA)Flanders (FHR)Netherlands(RWS)Germany (IWW)
32 Evaluation of low flow losses Navigation: Information questionnaireRegionMonetary /QualitativeApproachWallonia(ULG-GxABT)A decree regulates movements of boats and divers on and in the river. It includes minimum flows needed for activities.
33 Evaluation of low flow losses Energy: Information questionnaireRegionMonetary/QualitativeApproachNetherlands(RWS)monetaryCost functions using the difference between actual water temperature and optimal or maximum water temperature is used.
34 Evaluation of low flow losses Literature research examples: AgricultureTitle/Author/ModelMonetary /QualitativeApproachPalmer DroughtSeverity IndexEvaluation of the divergence of normal conditions in respect to precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture on a time scale of month.Economic droughtManagement IndexCost – benefit ratio about reducing drought risk for different water ratesAqua CropMonetaryEstimation of crop yield. Due to the respective market prices a monetary assessment is possible.WEAP-Model=> Important parameter to assess low flow losses in agriculture:Available Soil moisture content
35 Evaluation of low flow losses Palmer drought severity index (PDSI):Widely used in the USAPDSI is based on a supply-and-demand model of soil moistureAlgorithm based on most readily data: precipitation and temperature- Qualitative Assessment- Time scale Month (What do we need?)
36 Evaluation of low flow losses Palmer drought severity index (PDSI):Evaluation of variance to„normal“ conditionsTime scale of monthsZi: value of the moisture anomalyK: Weighting factor for spatial variabilityD: Difference between actual precipitation and CAFEC precipitationCAFEC (Climatically Appropriate For Existing Conditions) precipitation:ET: EvapotranspirationPE: Potential ETR : RunoffPR: Potential RunoffL : LossPL. Potential Loss
37 Evaluation of low flow losses Palmer drought severity index (PDSI):Advantage: Easy to handle; Data availabilityDisadvantage: strongly simplification, Qualitative assessment
38 Evaluation of low flow losses Aqua Crop:- AquaCrop is a product of FAO (Food and Agriculture Organizationof the United Nations)- Simulation model to determine the required amountof water for a specific crop yield- FAO crop requirements are calculated assuming a demand sitewith simplified hydrological agro-hydrological processes such asprecipitation, evapotranspiration and crop growth- The FAO Agriculture Approach is widely used in otherwater management models e.g. WEAP (Water EvaluationAnd Planning System)
40 Evaluation of low flow losses FAO ApproachAdvantageDisadvantageAvailable Input Parametersfrom hydrologic modelsNo validated model existingNo Experience
41 Evaluation of low flow losses Public Water supply: Literature ResearchTitel/AuthorMonetary/QualitativeApproachAntoninoCanvcelliere,Vincenzo Nicolosi,Giuseppe RossiAssessment of the water supply system via the factors.Temporal Reliability:Volumetric reliability:Average shortage period length:ns: Intervals, demand is fully metN: total number of intervals(Ratio between the total volume releasedand the total demand volume)ns: Intervals, demand is fully metN: total number of intervalsNP: number of sequent periods with deficits=> Water availability – demand approach is required
42 Evaluation of low flow losses Public Water supply: Literature ResearchTitel/AuthorMonetary/QualitativeApproachKENJI JINNO, XU ZONGXUE, AKIRA KAWAMURA & KANAME TAJIRIRisk Assessment of a Water Supply System during DroughtAssessment of the water supply system via the factors.Reliability α:Resiliency β:Vulnerability γ:Drought Risk Index (DRI):NS: days of periodI state variableVE: water deficitVD: water demand duringdeficitDRI = 1 => high drought riskDRI = 0 => no drought risk- HEC-PRN- Aquatool- MODSIM- STELLA=> Water Balance Models proposed
43 Evaluation of low flow losses Navigation: Literature ResearchTitel/AuthorMonetary /QualitativeApproachEffects of low waterlevels on the riverRhine on the inlandwaterway transportsectorOlaf Jonkeren;Jos van Ommeren;Piet Rietveld;MonetaryRelationship between price per ton and the transport capacity due to the water level
44 Evaluation of low flow losses Energy: Literature ResearchTitle/AuthorMonetary/QualitativeApproachJack Sieber;David PurkeyWEAP-ModelmonetaryQuantifying Hydropower generation due to produced Energy depending on hydraulic potential.P = Q*μ*ρ*g*hDeviation to average (year) power generation of water power plant is calculated.Absolute monetary assessment by energy price=> Cooling water demands
45 low flow losses Water Management Models available Region Available dataWallonia (GxABT)EPICGrid modelWallonia (HACH)France (EPAMA)Flanders (FHR)MIKEBASINNetherlands(RWS)PAWN-ModelGermany (IWW)
46 Evaluation of low flow losses Water Management Models used by AMICE partnersRegionModelPracticabilityInput dataWallonia(GxABT)EPIC grid modelApplicable for the agriculture, this model can highlight inland water stress and produce raster maps (resolution 1km²)Soil, weather,Agriculturalpractices, DTM(readily availablfor Wallonia from1961 to 2005)Flandern(FHR)MIKEBASiNeasy to use in itself, but when management rules are to be implemented, extra programming is needed to send the water where you want itrainfall, evaporation, withdrawals, discharges, navigation, river/canal discharges, water levels managment rules, economic loss curves (nearly all fluxes in and out the surface water system)
47 Evaluation of low flow losses Water Management Models used by AMICE partnersRegionModelPracticabilityInput dataNetherlands(RWS)PAWN-ModelPAWN toolbox is used. NHI is currently under development. Consists of a hydrological modeling toolbox and effect models. He effect models include AGRICOM for agriculture, DEMNAT for terrestrial nature, BIVAS for shipping and a cooling water model. The shipping model is a cost model that indicates additional costs when water levels go down. The number of ship movements is taken into account for. The cooling water model is used to calculate potential cooling capacity for each power plant in the Netherlands. The capacity is taken as the difference between the maximum allowed temperature and the river water temperature at the location.Some modules can beused separately fromThe hydrologicaltoolbox, but do need adetailed input.Input:Time series fromhydrological models(e.g. SOBEK anddistribution model)
48 Open QuestionsApproaches to assess risk due to Low Flow
49 Open Questions 1. Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses - Available soil water content (agriculture)
50 Suggestion: Task group (LOW FLOW) 1. Navigation- Rijkswaterstaat (Netherlands)- De Scheepvart (Belgium)- IWW (Germany)2. Agriculture- FUSAGx (Wallonia)- FHR3. Public Water Supply- IWW- AWW4. Energy- EPAMA (French)- Wallonia Region
51 Data Collection? (Example) 1. Navigation- Quantity of ships navigating the Meuse in a defined time scale- Price per tons2. Agriculture- Agriculture areas in the Meuse basin- Market prices of specific crops3. Public Water Supply- Wherefrom is drinking water taken?4. Energy- Temperature threshold values for cooling circuits- Water demand of power plant (e.g. l/kwh)