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AP7 Quantification of the impacts of future floods and low-flows on the economy in the transnational Meuse basin.

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Presentation on theme: "AP7 Quantification of the impacts of future floods and low-flows on the economy in the transnational Meuse basin."— Presentation transcript:

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2 AP7 Quantification of the impacts of future floods and low-flows on the economy in the transnational Meuse basin

3 1.Definition of the terms in economic losses 2.Evaluation Questionnaires 3.German perspective of assessment in flood losses 4.Drought losses a)Literature review b)PAWN (NL) c)EPIC Grid model (W) d)MIKE Basin 5.Open Questions 6.Discussion Structure

4 -Direct flood losses: by inundation direct induced damages. direct flood losses postulate direct contact with water, e.g. buildings, inventory, traffic areas and agricultural areas direct flood losses are subdivided in immobile and mobile damages. -Indirect flood losses: indirect damages are not generated by direct contact with water. indirect damages are caused by detraction of economic activities. e.g. 1.Immediate asset value losses; a short term consequence of inundation of business e.g. loss of production, disruption of economic activities 2.Induced asset value losses; affected companies are suppliers of not affected companies (chain reaction) 3.Prosperity damages, a long term consequence in a flood affected area due to lost of confidence in safety, absence of tourism, reduction of investments in the affected area. Type of damages

5 Qualitative/Quantitative? QualitativeQuantitativ Qualitative assessment of flood damage by damage risk maps A risk classification in e.g. negligible, low, medium, high vulnerability hazard Monetary assessment by damage functions corresponding to aggregated land use categories damage functions yield damage in proportion to water level h or partially, to the intensity of flow (e.g. velocity/ times/ depths of flow) The proportion of the damage is multiplied by an asset value Evaluation of direct flood losses

6 Methodology of Quantitative monetary assessment Evaluation of direct flood losses Land use category Inundation area; -depht Stage damage function corresponding to land use Relative damage Asset value for land use category [m - 2 ] Damage per land use category [] rel. damage [%] Waterdepht [m] Bachmann et. al. 2009

7 Methodology of Qualitative assessment Evaluation of direct flood losses => damage risk map: Expressing the potential damage of vulnerable elements. Based on flood hazard and vulnerability

8 RegionQualitativeQuantitative Scale Micro (local) Meso (regional) Macro (global) Wallonia (ULG – GxABT) X Wallonia (ULG - HACH) XX France (EPAMA) XX Flanders (FHR) XX Netherlands (RWS) XXX Germany (IWW) XX Evaluation of direct flood losses

9 RegionDamage functions / Vulnerability indicators hv flow tv rise Wallonia (GxABT) ---- Wallonia (HACH) XXXX France (EPAMA) XX-- Flanders (FHR) X--- Netherlands (Deltares) X--- Germany (IWW) XX-- Evaluation of direct flood losses

10 RegionDamage functions / Vulnerability indicators Wallonia (ULG – GxABT) The damage risk map (restricted access), expressing the potential damage of vulnerable elements located in areas subject to flood hazard by overflowing rivers. The risk of damage is determined by the combination of two factors: the flood hazard and vulnerability. The risk of damage may be negligible, low, medium or high. Wallonia (ULG - HACH) relative damage functions; loss model: FLEMO; damage ratio of the asset value; land registry income as an indicator for assessing the asset value; vulnerability based on combination of water depth, velocity, duration, water rising and social indicators recorded in the INS database France (EPAMA) The used damage functions yield damage in proportion to water level h or partially, to the flow velocity if v> 0.5m/s. A damage function is defined for each land use category. Flanders (FHR) relationship between a given water depth and the dependent damage factor for different land use category's Netherlands (RWS) Stage damage functions (SDFs) are used to calculate the proportion of the maximum damage which actually occurs under given flood depths. Germany (IWW) Based on indirect damage functions. The used damage functions yield damage in proportion to water level h or partially, to the intensity of flow (e.g. velocity/ times/ depths of flow). Evaluation of direct flood losses

11 RegionAvailable data Wallonia(GxABT) COSW Wallonia (HACH) PICC Database IGN Database INS Land registry database France (EPAMA) CORINE Land Cover IGN maps Non-digital Information Flanders (FHR) CORINE Land Cover Small Scale Land Use Map Flanders KADVEC Industrial Zones Top50vGIS Multinet Transmitting Water Collection Plants Water Surface Netherlands (RWS) CORINE CLUE Landuse Scanner Germany (IWW) CORINE data ATKIS data Land use data

12 RegionCategory groups (CORINE) Artificial SurfacesAgricult ural Areas Forest and semi natural areas Wet- lands Water bodies others Wallonia (GxABT) - housing - road - rail and waterways network XX-- - Communities facilities & public utilities - Economic activities Wallonia (HACH) Flanders (FHR) - Roads and Railways - Point elements - Residential buildings - Urban area - Industrial buildings - Industrial area - Infrastructure - Airport - Crop- land - Pasture - Nature - Forests -X - Recreation Land use categories

13 Region Category groups (CORINE) Artificial SurfacesAgricul- tural Areas Forest and semi natural areas Wet- lands Water bodies others Netherlands (RWS) - Residential – high density - Residential – low density - Commercial - Port areas - Infrastructure - Construction/ mines - arable land - pasture X-- - Recreation France (EPAMA) - town centre's - houses out of town - industrial or commercial areas - transport network X--- - equipments - other Germany (IWW) - private housing/ household contents - industry/manufacturing sector - commerce/service sector - mixed use - state/public sector XX-- - Cars, mobile transport assets - leisure Land use categories

14 Evaluation of indirect losses RegionQualitativeQuantitative Scale MicroMesoMacro Wallonia (ULG - GXABT) Wallonia (ULG - HACH) France (EPAMA) ---XX Flanders (FHR) -X-X- Netherlands (RWS) Germany (IWW) -X-X-

15 RegionCategories / economic sectorsData basis Wallonia (GxABT) -- Wallonia (HACH) -- France (EPAMA) Vulnerability of: - crisis management and emergency services - services and activities required for recovery - activities potentially creating more damage (SEVESO, fuel, waste storage) - major networks (power stations, drinking water stations) - SIRENE - PPRi - ICPE Flanders (FHR) - Agriculture (pastures and croplands) - Industry - Houses - Netherlands (RWS) -- Germany (IWW) -Trade, Commerce - Financial sector - Industry - Public and private service Geomarketing Data (infas) Indirect losses

16 RegionDirect flood losses MethodIndirect Flood Losses Wallonia (GxABT) --- Wallonia (HACH) X Flood frequency uncertainty - France (EPAMA) X Evaluated by experts - Flanders (FHR) Netherlands (RWS) X - Inundation depth - probability of flooding - stage-damage functions (SDFs) - maximum damage per land use type - land use - Germany (IWW) X Input variables - Uncertainty

17 German perspective General Approach Land use category Inundation area; -depth Stage damage function corresponding to land use Relative damage Asset value for land use category [m -2 ] Damage per land use category [] rel. damage [%] Waterdepht [m]

18 German perspective Damage Categories - Spatial Information : ATKIS Data (Vector data 1:25.000) - Aggregation of the ATKIS object groups to damage categories for meso-scale economic damage potential analysis - Allocation of damage functions and asset values to corresponding damage categories

19 German perspective Example: Damage Category Aggregation Objektart ATKIS Characterisation Characterisation Land use category Index Category (mobil) Index Category (immobil) 5101 Stream, River, Rivulet Not relevant in damage assessment chnnel 5112 Inland lake, artificial lake 2111 general residential building area Private housing Mining Company Industry and Commerce Disposal site 2129 Waste Water Treatment Plant 2112 Industry and Commerce

20 German perspective Damage functions of categories 1. Large number of damage functions in literature 2. Representation of this variety by stochastic interpretation => Probability Density Function for each water level => Population Mean => damage function for economic assessment (Kutschera, 2008)

21 German perspective Damage function (industry immobile) - including uncertainty => Quantile

22 German perspective Specific Asset Values (stochastically evaluated)

23 German perspective Example Wupper (BMBF REISE) 1.Land use data (ATKIS-Basis-DLM): 2.Raster data: Resolution 25m x 25m per grid cell => Considered catchment area 282km 2 ( Elements)

24 0. national / partially common/ common approach 1.Monetary-/ Qualitative Assessment 2.Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses 3.Direct flood losses mobile/immobile 4.Land use data 5.Determination of Land use categories 6.Flood damage functions/which hydraulic input variables (t/h/v…) 7.Assessment of direct/indirect losses Open Questions

25 1. Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses - Existing damage functions in flood damage assessment Open Questions

26 2. Land use data? - Suggestion CORINE data Open Questions AdvantageDisadvantage: - Available Europe wide - Free download maps/data#c5=all&c0=5&b_start=0&c11 =landuse - Aggregation of damage categories - Only 5 category groups (Artificial Surfaces, Agricultural Areas, Forest and semi natural areas, wetlands, water bodies) - Resolution (100m x 100m) => more inaccurate than ATKIS Data ( German Approach )

27 CORINE categories

28 3. Aggregation of Land use data to Categories Open Questions Artificial SurfacesAgricultural Areas Forest and semi natural areas Wet- lands Water bodies others => CORINE Land use groups?

29 4. Indirect flood losses? - Partially approaches exist but not tested - Data availability? - Time frame / Budget? Open Questions

30 Considered disciplines in AMICE project Navigation Agriculture Water supply (drinking water) Energy Average discharge of the Meuse: Q = 230 m 3 /s Decrease of discharge to Q = 130 m 3 /s => economic problems occur (Woelders, Keizer; 2007) Decrease of discharge below Q = 1100 m 3 /s (water gauge Lobhit) sluices enclosed? low flow losses

31 Assessment of low flow situations Low flow losses RegionAgriculturePublic Water supply NavigationEnergy Wallonia (GxABT) X Wallonia (HACH) France (EPAMA) Flanders (FHR) Netherlands (RWS) X Germany (IWW)

32 Navigation: Information questionnaire RegionMonetary / Qualitative Approach Wallonia (ULG-GxABT) Qualitative A decree regulates movements of boats and divers on and in the river. It includes minimum flows needed for activities. Evaluation of low flow losses

33 Energy: Information questionnaire RegionMonetary/ Qualitative Approach Netherlands (RWS) monetaryCost functions using the difference between actual water temperature and optimal or maximum water temperature is used. Evaluation of low flow losses

34 Literature research examples: Agriculture Title/Author/ Model Monetary / Qualitative Approach Palmer Drought Severity Index QualitativeEvaluation of the divergence of normal conditions in respect to precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture on a time scale of month. Economic drought Management Index QualitativeCost – benefit ratio about reducing drought risk for different water rates Aqua CropMonetaryEstimation of crop yield. Due to the respective market prices a monetary assessment is possible. WEAP-ModelMonetaryEstimation of crop yield. Due to the respective market prices a monetary assessment is possible. Evaluation of low flow losses => Important parameter to assess low flow losses in agriculture: Available Soil moisture content

35 Palmer drought severity index (PDSI): - Widely used in the USA - PDSI is based on a supply-and-demand model of soil moisture - Algorithm based on most readily data: precipitation and temperature - Qualitative Assessment - Time scale Month (What do we need?) Evaluation of low flow losses

36 Palmer drought severity index (PDSI): Evaluation of variance to normal conditions Time scale of months Z i : value of the moisture anomaly D: Difference between actual precipitation and CAFEC precipitation CAFEC (Climatically Appropriate For Existing Conditions) precipitation: K: Weighting factor for spatial variability ET: Evapotranspiration PE: Potential ET R : Runoff PR: Potential Runoff L : Loss PL. Potential Loss Evaluation of low flow losses

37 Palmer drought severity index (PDSI): Evaluation of low flow losses Advantage: Easy to handle; Data availability Disadvantage: strongly simplification, Qualitative assessment

38 Aqua Crop: - AquaCrop is a product of FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) - Simulation model to determine the required amount of water for a specific crop yield - FAO crop requirements are calculated assuming a demand site with simplified hydrological agro-hydrological processes such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and crop growth - The FAO Agriculture Approach is widely used in other water management models e.g. WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning System) Evaluation of low flow losses

39 Parameters FAO Approach Evaluation of low flow losses Input ParametersOutput Parameters Area [ha] Kc [-] Evaporation Coefficient Effective Precipitation [mm] Percentage of Precipitation for Evapotranspiration Runoff from Precipitation [Million cm ³ ] Precipitation [mm]Observed Precipitation [mm] ETRef [mm]Infiltration/Runoff flow [Million cm ³ ] Potential Yield [kg/ha]ETPotential [Million cm ³ ] Yield Response Factor [-]ETActual (including irrigation) [Million cm ³ ] Market Price [ /kg]ETShortfall [Million cm ³ ] Irrigated [-]Total Yield [kg/ha] Irrigation Fraction [%]Total Market Value [ ]

40 FAO Approach Evaluation of low flow losses AdvantageDisadvantage Available Input Parameters from hydrologic models No validated model existing No Experience

41 Public Water supply: Literature Research Titel/AuthorMonetary/ Qualitative Approach Antonino Canvcelliere, Vincenzo Nicolosi, Giuseppe Rossi QualitativeAssessment of the water supply system via the factors. Temporal Reliability: Volumetric reliability: Average shortage period length: Evaluation of low flow losses n s : Intervals, demand is fully met N: total number of intervals => Water availability – demand approach is required (Ratio between the total volume released and the total demand volume) n s : Intervals, demand is fully met N: total number of intervals N P : number of sequent periods with deficits

42 Public Water supply: Literature Research Titel/AuthorMonetary/ Qualitative Approach KENJI JINNO, XU ZONGXUE, AKIRA KAWAMURA & KANAME TAJIRI Risk Assessment of a Water Supply System during Drought QualitativeAssessment of the water supply system via the factors. Reliability α: Resiliency β: Vulnerability γ: Drought Risk Index (DRI): Evaluation of low flow losses NS: days of period I state variable => Water Balance Models proposed - HEC-PRN - Aquatool - MODSIM - STELLA DRI = 1 => high drought risk DRI = 0 => no drought risk VE: water deficit VD: water demand during deficit

43 Navigation: Literature Research Titel/AuthorMonetary / Qualitative Approach Effects of low water levels on the river Rhine on the inland waterway transport sector Olaf Jonkeren; Jos van Ommeren; Piet Rietveld; MonetaryRelationship between price per ton and the transport capacity due to the water level Evaluation of low flow losses

44 Energy: Literature Research Title/AuthorMonetary/ Qualitative Approach Jack Sieber; David Purkey WEAP-Model monetaryQuantifying Hydropower generation due to produced Energy depending on hydraulic potential. P = Q*μ*ρ*g*h Deviation to average (year) power generation of water power plant is calculated. Absolute monetary assessment by energy price Evaluation of low flow losses => Cooling water demands

45 Water Management Models available low flow losses RegionAvailable data Wallonia (GxABT) EPICGrid model Wallonia (HACH) France (EPAMA) Flanders (FHR) MIKEBASIN Netherlands (RWS) PAWN-Model Germany (IWW)

46 Water Management Models used by AMICE partners RegionModelPracticabilityInput data Wallonia (GxABT) EPIC grid model Applicable for the agriculture, this model can highlight inland water stress and produce raster maps (resolution 1km²) Soil, weather, Agricultural practices, DTM (readily availabl for Wallonia from 1961 to 2005) Flandern (FHR) MIKEBASiNeasy to use in itself, but when management rules are to be implemented, extra programming is needed to send the water where you want it rainfall, evaporation, withdrawals, discharges, navigation, river/canal discharges, water levels managment rules, economic loss curves (nearly all fluxes in and out the surface water system) Evaluation of low flow losses

47 Water Management Models used by AMICE partners RegionModelPracticabilityInput data Netherlands (RWS) PAWN- Model PAWN toolbox is used. NHI is currently under development. Consists of a hydrological modeling toolbox and effect models. He effect models include AGRICOM for agriculture, DEMNAT for terrestrial nature, BIVAS for shipping and a cooling water model. The shipping model is a cost model that indicates additional costs when water levels go down. The number of ship movements is taken into account for. The cooling water model is used to calculate potential cooling capacity for each power plant in the Netherlands. The capacity is taken as the difference between the maximum allowed temperature and the river water temperature at the location. Some modules can be used separately from The hydrological toolbox, but do need a detailed input. Input: Time series from hydrological models (e.g. SOBEK and distribution model) Evaluation of low flow losses

48 1.Approaches to assess risk due to Low Flow Open Questions

49 1. Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses - Available soil water content (agriculture) Open Questions

50 1. Navigation - Rijkswaterstaat (Netherlands) - De Scheepvart (Belgium) - IWW (Germany) 2. Agriculture - FUSAGx (Wallonia) - FHR - IWW (Germany) 3. Public Water Supply - IWW - AWW - FHR 4. Energy - EPAMA (French) - Wallonia Region - IWW (Germany) Suggestion: Task group (LOW FLOW)

51 1. Navigation - Quantity of ships navigating the Meuse in a defined time scale - Price per tons 2. Agriculture - Agriculture areas in the Meuse basin - Market prices of specific crops 3. Public Water Supply - Wherefrom is drinking water taken? 4. Energy - Temperature threshold values for cooling circuits - Water demand of power plant (e.g. l/kwh) Data Collection? (Example)


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