Presentation on theme: "David Purkey, SEI Rob Lempert, RAND"— Presentation transcript:
1David Purkey, SEI Rob Lempert, RAND C: XLRM SessionDavid Purkey, SEIRob Lempert, RAND
2Robustness Analysis OSeMOSYS Uncertainties: Response Strategies: Changes in ClimateChanges in PopulationChanges in LanduseResponse Strategies:Add infrastructure (e.g. desalination)Improvements in system efficiencyWastewater reuseDemand ManagementOSeMOSYSIterative, analytic process designed to identify strategies that are robust to a wide range of planning uncertainties.Outcome Metrics:Delivery reliabilityUnmet demandsHydropower generationGroundwater & surface water storage
3Recall also that the “XLRM” Framework support participatory scoping and analytical design Uncertainty Factors (X)Response Packages/Policy Levers (L)Uncertain factors outside of the control of water managers which form the basis of scenarios analysis.Management strategies available to water managers:Current systemPlanned strategiesModels (R)Performance Metrics (M)Models to produce metrics of performance (M) for each strategy (L) in the face of ensembles of uncertainties (X)Results of interest, metrics used to evaluate the performance of strategies under consideration
4Factors of Uncertainty(X) Performance Metrics (M) Uncertainties (X)Factors of Uncertainty(X)Response Packages (L)What uncertain factors, outside the control of water managers, may affect water management outcomes?What is the plausible range for such uncertainties?What information is needed to define these ranges and any best estimates?Who has the information?Models (R)Performance Metrics (M)
5Performance Metrics (M) Factors of Uncertainty (X)Response Packages (L)Models (R)Performance Metrics (M)What characteristic of system performance are important to you? What are the measures and indicators that we should use to evaluate these characteristics? What are the acceptable levels and limits of this measures and indicators to be achieved? What is the information needed to define these acceptable levels and limits? Who has the information?
6Response Packages (L) Factor s of Uncertainty (X) Response Packages/Policy Levers (L)Are there additional projects that we should include in the base line?What types of response packages in addition my potentially address the impacts of climate change?Models (R)Performance Metrics (M)
7Factors of Uncertainty (X) Performance Metrics (M) Relationships (R)Factors of Uncertainty (X)Response Packages (L)Models (R)Performance Metrics (M)Based on what you heard yesterday about our tools and approaches, what advice would you have for improving the modeling that will be use to support the analysis?
8Uncertainty Factors (X) Response Packages/Policy Levers (L) Future climate (plus flood, droughts)Future cropping patternsPopulation and economic growth, and their effect on water demandAbility to implement end use efficiency programsFunding availabilityOperational deviations from assurance rulesNatural hazards (earthquakes)Political instability (allocations, demand, international trade)Cost variability (energy and water)Infrastructure ground conditions delay implementation, as does corruptionHydropower plant efficiency (sedimentation)Historical uncertaintyNew resource discovery (gas), and policies (nuclear)Market reforms (energy, water)Non-technical losses (theft)Organizational capacityAllocation compliance during stressEnvironmental flows expandWater quality degradation (Vaal)Infrastructure investmentsStorage, transfer, hydro, irrigationLH III and IV (timing)Re-regulating damFish river damWater governanceInter-basin integrated planning and cooperationOrganizational stabilityAllocation priority between sectorsWater managementEnhance end use efficiencyChange cropping patternsDevelop more ground waterEncourage growth in water rich areasDistribution loss reductionPlanned assurance rulesCatchment managementMonitoring, higher res infoWater reuse, return flow captureService expansion to rural communitiesEnergyMixtransmissionRelationships in Models (R)Performance Metrics (M)WEAPOSeMOSYSWater supply reliability/assurance (for different sectors)Electricity metrics (Mark leads)Water qualityHydropower supply reliabilityEnvironmental flows (e.g. river mouth RAMSAR site, other key points)Number of system failuresNational food production levels