1. Strategic Politicians

2. Number of House seats held by President’s party, 1936-2004

3. Explaining national midterm election outcomes Referendum on the president Reversion to party id Response to economy and job approval

4. Presidential job approval Reagan, Mar. 1986: 63% G. H. W. Bush, Mar. 1990: 74% Bill Clinton, Mar. 1994: 52% Bill Clinton, Mar. 1998: 66% G. W. Bush, Mar. 2002: 77% G. W. Bush, Mar. 2006: 36% Obama, Mar. 2010: 46%

5. Explaining national midterm election outcomes Referendum on the president Reversion to party id Response to economy and job approval Strategic politicians

6. What does the “political opportunity structure” look like? Not overly structured Lots of offices Uncertainty about success Some offices more desirable; fewer of those Structurally similar offices throughout hierarchy Overlapping constituencies Competition

7. Implications of the political opportunity structure Competition for office Lots of qualified, experienced politicians available (overabundance?!) So why aren’t elections more competitive? And how does this relate to surge and decline in midterm elections?

8. Candidate strategy Experienced candidates see their current office as an asset Candidates building political careers are risk averse Candidates weigh risk of losing when they consider running for a new office

9. Strategic Calculus Overall benefit of running for a new office is equal to the difference between the value to the officeholder of her current office in interaction with the probability of keeping her current office and the risks (likelihood of winning, costs of campaign, opportunity costs of losing current office) of running for a new office. U=(PB) - R

10. Therefore, collectively, The quality of challengers willing to run varies with the national partisan conditions. Incumbency itself also deters high quality challengers

11. Challengers to incumbents (J & K Table 3.2) Democrats’ percent of experienced candidates Republicans’ percent of experienced candidates 197221%22% 197438%13% 197629%17% 197825%16%

12. Two other arguments Strategic Resources Strategic Retirement

13. Retirements 2010 5 Senate Democrats 18 House Democrats 5 Senate Republicans 19 House Republicans

14. So expectations about national trends lead to behavior that will reinforce those trends.