1. Voting 11/9/2011

2. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: – discuss and critically analyze political events in the United States government – assess the 2010 and 2012 elections without resorting to partisan bickering.

3. Office Hours and Readings Chapter 5 Chapter 4 (110-129) Office Hours – Thursday 8-11:00 – Monday 8-10:30

4. We Know Why We Vote

5. BUT WHO DO WE VOTE FOR?

6. Very Simple

7. PARTY IDENTIFICATION The Long Term Factor

8. Party ID Psychological attachment to one of the parties Long Term Factor Best Predictor of Voting Influences other short- term factors

9. Party ID Rocks

10. Cleveland Rocks

11. 2008 Vote by Party ID

12. The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008 Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain There are more Democrats in the electorate Obama wins

13. ISSUE VOTING This is hard

14. Issue Voting is Hard We are clueless Too many issues We don’t trust or understand policy

15. Easy/Single Issue Voting

16. Most Important Issues in 2008

17. Retrospective Analysis Looking back at the economy Easier to do if there is an incumbent

18. The Economy The events of 9/14- Voters disagreed with McCain on the Economy McCain

19. Economics

21. CANDIDATE APPRAISALS We Vote for Who We Like

22. Party Image Impacts our views of the candidate Very important for prospective voting McCain has a terrible party image in 2008

23. The Republican Brand

24. The Third Term

25. Retrospective voting on Bush Bush is Unpopular

27. McCain Vs. Bush In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush In reality no way to distance himself from Bush

28. Candidate Image Try to create your own Use issues to your advantage Don’t Let the Media create one for you

29. Hope and Change A message that worked It meant everything and nothing at the same time

30. Change Randy Marsh on – Change Change – Change Change

31. Hope as a message

32. Change

33. Bad Images

34. THE ELECTION OF 2010

35. The Results

36. The Nationalized Election National factors trumped local factors for the third time This time around, these factors favored the GOP This Hurts Incumbents

37. Party ID Rules the Day

38. People do not like Congress

39. Issues and 2010

40. The Issues of 2010

41. THE ECONOMY The Primary Issue

42. A Referendum on the Economy

43. Unemployment

44. Who is to Blame?

45. Health Care Opinion Remained Divided

46. A Referendum on Obama

47. THE TEA PARTY The X factor in 2010

48. The Tea Party Movement Unique in that they do not want anything from government Very Motivated

49. The Tea Party was unified in its Anger at Government

50. The Tea Party Tapped into Angry Voters

51. The Tea party was a Popular Movement

52. With Motivated Voters on Election Day

53. BETTING ON OBAMA The odds in 2012

54. Incumbency The Last incumbents who lost were – 1992 – 1980 – 1976 He is facing no primary challenger

55. Campaign Finance $1,000,000,000 Independent Expenditures as Well Any Republican must get at least 2/3 of this

56. The Electoral College

57. Popular on the Left Strong Support Among Democrats Very popular among key constituencies Policies are popular, and he is personally popular

58. Overall Popularity Close To 50%

59. GDP Growth

60. Figure 9.4Presidential vote by income growth, 1948–2008

61. For the GOP to win, they need a candidate who can expand the Republican Map

62. THE 2012 ELECTION Four Scenarios

63. Going In to 2012 Both Parties are optimistic Unknowns – The Economy – The Republican Nominee – Seats in the House and Senate

64. Scenario 1: The Status Quo Little Change in either the House or Senate A “personal victory” for Obama (e.g. 1984) or the failure by the opposition (2004). Good odds of this happening

65. Scenario 2: An Emerging Democratic Majority Coincides with an Obama victory The Democrats take back the House, expand lead in the Senate A return to the Obama Coalition of 2009-11.

66. Scenario 3: A Republican Congress GOP keeps the House The GOP Surges in the Senate- This leads to full-scale battle between the President and Congress

67. Scenario 4: A Republican Sweep The GOP maintains the House Gains 4 in the Senate Wins the Presidency Least Likely

68. 2012 will be about turnout in battleground states

69. SOME NATIONS LOVE TO VOTE Voting in a Comparative Perspective

71. Why so high elsewhere? Compulsory voting Fewer Elections PR systems and MMD

72. Why Turnout Should Be High in the USA Easier To Register A National two-party system A better-educated population

73. Despite this, fewer Americans Vote! We call the Paradox of Participation

74. TURNOUT: THE GOOD AND BAD

75. Why Low turnout is bad Groups who do not vote, get used by those that do Voting levels the playing field Voting is essential for democracy to succeed

76. Why Low Turnout is not that bad Low Turnout is actually a good thingthing People are not voting for the wrong candidate Stability in the System Voting is only one way of participation

77. Ways to Increase Turnout Continue to Lower Costs – Mandatory voting – Same Day Registration – Mail and Internet voting – Weekend Voting – Holiday Voting