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Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

3 Table 1. Electoral Outcomes in Elections where the Presidency Changed Parties, 1912– Insert table 1 here --

4 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008 A Disagreeable Public Mood

5 Figure 1. George W. Bush Job Approval,

6 Figure 2. Public Opinion of whether the nation is on the right direction or wrong track,

7 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008 A Disagreeable Public Mood An Economy in Turmoil

8 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008 A Disagreeable Public Mood An Economy in Turmoil Strategic Decision-making

9 Table 2. Fundraising and Expenditure Totals for Congressional Candidates, 2008

10 Table 3. Party Campaign Committee Fundraising and Spending, 2008

11 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008 A Disagreeable Public Mood An Economy in Turmoil Strategic Decision-making The Democrats Foundational Advantage

12 Figure 3. U.S. Partisan Identification,

13 Figure 4. Generic Congressional Ballot,

14 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008 A Disagreeable Public Mood An Economy in Turmoil Strategic Decision-making The Democrats Foundational Advantage Exploiting the Republican Disadvantage

15 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008 A Disagreeable Public Mood An Economy in Turmoil Strategic Decision-making The Democrats Foundational Advantage Exploiting the Republican Disadvantage A Ray of Hope for the GOP

16 Figure 5. Split-ticket Voting,

17 Figure 6. Congressional Job Approval,

18 Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008 A Disagreeable Public Mood An Economy in Turmoil Strategic Decision-making The Democrats Foundational Advantage Exploiting the Republican Disadvantage A Ray of Hope for the GOP Playing Defense in a Year of Change

19 Figure 7. Gains and losses by the presidents party in presidential elections,


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