1. Mobile Location Services: Market Strategies Ovum Report 2000 Part E: Market Development Scenarios Pasi Pekkinen pasi.pekkinen@navinova.com Navinova Oy Navinova Oy

2. Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services 17.6.2015 / PP2 Key messages Availability of technology is a driverAvailability of technology is a driver Regulation is both a driver and barrierRegulation is both a driver and barrier Alternative solutions for network-based LBS existAlternative solutions for network-based LBS exist Size and characteristics of end-user market unprovenSize and characteristics of end-user market unproven Technology choice and business models remain unresolved for few yearsTechnology choice and business models remain unresolved for few years After resolution a short-lived golden ageAfter resolution a short-lived golden age

3. Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services 17.6.2015 / PP3 Enablers Packet data bearer servicesPacket data bearer services Development of m-Internet protocols and standardsDevelopment of m-Internet protocols and standards Standards allowing secure transactionsStandards allowing secure transactions Users’ increased familiarityUsers’ increased familiarity Standards for geo-coded infoStandards for geo-coded info New and repackaged contentNew and repackaged content More widely available m-Internet terminalsMore widely available m-Internet terminals

4. Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services 17.6.2015 / PP4 Drivers RegulationRegulation Widespread availability of fixed InternetWidespread availability of fixed Internet Automatically determined location is an attractive elementAutomatically determined location is an attractive element

5. Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services 17.6.2015 / PP5 Barriers Uncertainties in regulationUncertainties in regulation Privacy concernsPrivacy concerns Substitute solutionsSubstitute solutions Business model uncertaintiesBusiness model uncertainties

6. Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services 17.6.2015 / PP6 Uncertainties: Demand Existence of real demandExistence of real demand Acceptability of the quality of such servicesAcceptability of the quality of such services Users’ willingness to pay for automatic positioningUsers’ willingness to pay for automatic positioning Value of more precisely determined location than Cell IDValue of more precisely determined location than Cell ID

7. Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services 17.6.2015 / PP7 Uncertainties: Supply Business model needs to be resolvedBusiness model needs to be resolved If no clear winner in position measurement methods rise, operators may delay adoptionIf no clear winner in position measurement methods rise, operators may delay adoption If industry forced to deploy before a winner:If industry forced to deploy before a winner: –costs will be higher, application development may be fragmented, roaming less available

8. Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services 17.6.2015 / PP8 Alternative scenarios Two dimensions:Two dimensions: –size and scope of demand –level of business and technological integration

9. Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services 17.6.2015 / PP9 Most likely development Up to 2000Up to 2000 –main players automatic vehicle location vendors –proprietary technologies –high cost & limited functionality: few customers Emerging market 2001-2002Emerging market 2001-2002 –new positioning methods proposed –new business models proposed –much unresolved, but a viable market created –new players prepare to enter the market

10. Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services 17.6.2015 / PP10 Most likely (2) Golden age 2003-2004Golden age 2003-2004 –Technology competition is over –Business models are resolved –Supply dominated by fewer large and stable companies –Greater number of users Maturity 2005 onwardsMaturity 2005 onwards –location remains an important element in mobile services, but users take it more for granted –LCS decline relatively as new kind of services emerge

11. Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services 17.6.2015 / PP11 Alternative scenario Lower demand by consumers 2001-2002Lower demand by consumers 2001-2002 –technical and commercial issues resolved –customers primarily business users –specialists develop services Silver age 2002-2004Silver age 2002-2004 –prices are reduced –more generic applications –wider range of companies adopt services

12. Ovum Report 2000: Mobile Location Services 17.6.2015 / PP12 Alternative scenario (2) 2005 onwards2005 onwards –more consumer oriented applications developed –primary focus in niches such as personal safety and vehicle protection systems