1. Comparing Political Activism Worldwide Democratic Phoenix

2. Structure I.Theoretical overview: Civic decline or evolution in political activism? II.Evidence 1.Trends in party membership & civic activism 2.Rise of protest and cause-oriented politics 3.Generational patterns of activism III.Conclusions Causes & consequences of trends?

3. Democratic Phoenix (Cambridge University Press August 2002) Introduction: –1. The Rise and Fall of Political Activism? –2. Theories of Political Activism I. The Puzzle of Electoral Turnout –3. Mapping Turnout –4. Do Institutions Matter? –5. Who Votes? II: Political Parties –6. Mapping Party Activism –7. Who Joins? III: Civic Activism –8. Social Capital & Civic Society –9. Traditional Mobilizing Agencies: Trade Unions & Churches –10. New Social Movements, the Internet & Protest Politics Conclusions: –11. Conclusions: From Loyalties to Choice?

4. The civic decline thesis Half-empty ballot box? (Wattenberg) Desertion of party members? (Dalton, Mair) Partisan dealignment? Hemorrhaging union rolls? Emptying church pews? Anemic voluntary organizations? (Putnam) Rising political cynicism? (Nye et al)

5. Model of change

6. If participation is changing… Causes? –Long-term processes of societal modernization? Growing educational & civic skills Decline of deferential loyalty to hierarchical institutions Gradual ‘bottom up’ generational shift in ‘critical citizens’ –Result of changing institutions of representative democracy? ‘Top down’ explanations Globalization, decentralization & role of nation state Growth of cross-cutting issues not accommodated by parties Rational response to context of choices and channels of influence

7. If participation is changing… Consequences? 1.Social inequality? »Greater civic skills, more demanding acts? » Who participates by class, income, education, gender, ethnicity 2.Quality of deliberative democracy »F-to-f interaction, on-going co-operation, social trust? »Rise of more demanding citizens? 3.For governance? »Stability and violence? »Fragmentation of policy process?

8. Evidence: civic activism

9. Trends official party members Table 6.1 Phoenix Party membership as a % of the electorate, late-1990s % Change (i) Change in Numbers of Members Change in Numbers as Percentage of Original Membership France1978-1999 1.6 - 3.48- 1,122,128- 64.59 Italy1980-1998 4.0 - 5.61- 2,091,887- 51.54 US1980-1998 1.9 - 2.20- 853,156- 50.39 Norway1980-1997 7.3 - 8.04- 218,891- 47.49 Czech Rep1993-1999 3.9 - 3.10- 225,200- 41.32 Finland1980-1998 9.6 - 6.09- 206,646- 34.03 Netherlands1980-2000 2.5 - 1.78- 136,459- 31.67 Austria1980-1999 17.7 - 10.82- 446,209- 30.21 Switzerland1977-1997 6.4 - 4.28- 118,800- 28.85 Sweden1980-1998 5.5 - 2.87- 142,533- 28.05 Denmark1980-1998 5.2 - 2.16- 70,385- 25.52 Ireland1980-1998 3.1 - 1.86- 27,856- 24.47 Belgium1980-1999 6.5 - 2.42- 136,382- 22.10 Germany1980-1999 2.9 - 1.59- 174,967- 8.95 Hungary1990-1999 2.1 + 0.04+ 8,300+ 5.02 Portugal1980-2000 3.9 - 0.29+ 50,381+ 17.01 Slovakia1994-2000 4.1 + 0.82+ 37,777+ 29.63 Greece1980-1998 6.8 + 3.58+ 375,000+ 166.67 Spain1980-2000 3.4 + 2.22+ 808,705+ 250.73 ALL ABOVE

10. Party membership Decline in many Western nations Broader erosion of partisanship Yet substantial cross-national variations Does erosion of membership matter? –For party in government? –For party finance and staff? –For party or campaign activism?

12. US Turnout US Turnout: 59.5% in 2000, 63.8% in 2004 (Vote/VAP) Source: US Census Bureau www.census.gov

13. Trends in Gross Union Density Source: Bernhard Ebbinghaus and Jelle Visser. 2000. Trade Unions in Western Europe since 1945. London: Macmillan. CD-Rom. Note: Net density I (Total union membership as a share of the gainfully employed wage and salary earners.)

14. Union Density: Table 9.1

15. Interpretation No simple decline in union membership across Western Europe Substantial cross-national variations worldwide Institutional explanations not secular trends

16. Secularization Trends % Church attendance Eurobarometer 1970-2000

17. Interpretation? Evidence of secularization in W.Europe Development is linked to secularization Political implications?

18. Experience of Political Activism Source: WVS mid-1990s % ‘Have done’All Discuss politics70.0 Voting turnout64.5 Civic activism62.4 Signed a petition *28.5 Attended demonstrations*15.7 Joined in boycott *8.9 Active union member5.4 Joined unofficial strike *5.0 Active party member4.6 Occupied buildings *1.6

19. Rise of Protest Politics % ‘Have done’ in 8 postindustrial societies: WVS Mid-1970s1980s1990mid-1990s Signed petition32465460 Demonstrated9141817 Consumer Boycott581115 Unofficial Strike2344 Occupied buildings1222 Source: World Values Surveys

20. Protest & democracy

21. Protest & econ development

22. Generational shifts?

23. Age differences? –If so three possible causes: Generational effects, Period effects, and Lifecycle effects. European Social Survey 2002 15 European nations (22)

24. Type of acts Citizen-oriented repertoires –Voted –Contacted a politician or official –Donated money to political organization –Party member –Worked for a political party Cause-oriented repertoires –Bought products for political reasons –Signed a petition –Boycotted certain products –Lawfully demonstrated –Took part in illegal protest

25. Age profile of activists AllYounger (i) Middle- Aged (ii) Older (iii) Age Gap (i-iii) 18-2930-5960+ Citizen-oriented repertoires Voted72507984-34 Contacted a politician or official16121914-2 Donated money to political organization8798 Party member6368-4 Worked for a political party5455 Cause-oriented repertoires Bought products for political reasons24 28177 Signed a petition222324158 Boycotted certain products151417113 Lawfully demonstrated69636 Took part in illegal protest0.91.40.80.60.8

26. Citizen-oriented acts

27. Citizen-oriented acts by cohort

28. Mean age of activists Note: Whether the respondent did these acts during the previous 12-months Source: The European Social Survey, 2002

29. Cause–oriented acts

30. Cause- oriented acts by cohort

31. Age of members

32. Membership in associations

33. Conclusions From the politics of loyalties to the politics of choice? –Citizen oriented action peak in middle age –Cause-oriented acts most common among young people –Associations: Mixed pattern –Young people not more engaged in new social movements

34. Discussion Questions 1.Does this reflect your own experience? 2.If so, what are the causes? –Globalization reducing the power of the nation- state? –Rise of more ‘critical citizens’? 3.And what are the consequences? –For democracy –For governments & policy process