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Momentum in Pres election Rational or irrational behavior Learning (via media, ads,...) –policy –personality –viability –reduction in uncertainty Bandwagon.

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Presentation on theme: "Momentum in Pres election Rational or irrational behavior Learning (via media, ads,...) –policy –personality –viability –reduction in uncertainty Bandwagon."— Presentation transcript:

1 Momentum in Pres election Rational or irrational behavior Learning (via media, ads,...) –policy –personality –viability –reduction in uncertainty Bandwagon effect ?

2 What is Momentum? Often an anti-establishment candidate Gaining in poll standing over time Usually no time to win w/ momentum –what effects frontloading? –less time for outsider to build momentum? –Carter (1976); Reagan (1976); Hart (1984); McCain (2000)....Obama (2008)

3 Momentum Percent Familiar 9/26 10/1010/2412/12 12/21 1/19 2/4 2/20 2/29 Date, Public Familiarity with Presidential Candidates, 2000 Hear of Gore Hear of Bush Hear of McCain

4 Momentum Public Familiarity with Presidential Candidates, 2008

5 Momentum Percent 9/26 10/1010/2412/12 12/21 1/19 2/4 2/20 2/29 Date, Public Attitudes about Presidential Candidates, 2000 Favorable opinion of Gore Favorable opinion of Bush Favorable opinion of McCain

6 Momentum Public Attitudes about Presidential Candidates, 2008

7 Momentum Public Attitudes about Presidential Candidates, 2012

8 Momentum? Public Attitudes about Presidential Candidates, 2012

9 Momentum NH

10 Art, Sports and Democracy

11 Does Democracy Need Music and Singing?

12 And: Baseball leagues, Quilting bees, Theater groups, Soccer (football) clubs, PTAs, League of Women Voters, Labor unions, Girl Scouts, Boy Scouts Elks, Lions, Moose, Eagles Red Cross….. etc.

13 Sports, & Arts Groups as Venues to Build Social Capital Social capital = Networks of trust Skills of citizenship Working w/ others Interacting w/ different types of people

14 The Argument Democracy depends upon social capital cooperative relationships Social Capital built via voluntary social groups Participation in social groups in decline WHY? work-force change, commuting, suburbs, the 60s, mobility…AND... Decline in “ civic engagement ” product of decline in group activity

15 Topline: group memberships; 2nd line: turnout; 3rd line, read newspapers; 3rd & 4th lines = trust

16 The Argument Putnam: Democratic “ performance ” greater where more participation in social groups. In Italy, football clubs and choral societies. Verba, Scholzman and Brady: “ Running a rummage sale to benefit the church day care center or editing a church newsletter provides opportunities for the development of skills relevant to politics even though the enterprise is expressly non-political. ” Tocqueville: "the serious, futile, very general and very limited, immensely large and very minute" organizations alike would instil the habits of public spiritedness.

17 The Argument Active in vol. groups Trusting, skills Democratic performance

18 Why a decline of “civicness,” and political engagement in recent decades? trust in government way down trust in elected officials down political efficacy fewer working on campaigns participation (voting, joining parties) down (?)

19 Levels of Social Group Membership, USA by Age Cohort AGE COHORT Tuned 18 in about: Not a member of 25% 26% 29% 36% 37% any group Member of one or two social groups Member of three or more social groups Source: Authors ’ calculations from raw data in GSS 1972 – 2000 cumulative datafile.

20 Percent Trusting Most or All of the Time Year Trust in the Federal Government: Source: National Election Study..... by 2004, trust at 47%

21

22 Percent of Respondents Year of Survey Trends in Trust in Government, and Church- Based Group Membership USA: Member of Church-based Group? Trust Government? Source: General Social Survey

23 Questions Is there an association between membership in groups and democratic virtues? Face-to-face groups special?? Is the association stronger among some groups than others? Does joining a football club instil democratic virtues? Arts groups particularly well-suited to the task? Are things the same across all nations?

24 Sources: Authors ’ analysis of raw data files - Europe, 1990 Eurobaromerter Survey 34.0; New Zealand, 1999 New Zealand Election Study; USA, 1994 General Social Survey. Percent of Adults Claiming Group Memberships in 14 Democracies

25 Types of groups: EuropeNew Zealandpolitical parties labor unions unionschurch groups arts groupscultural organizations human rights groupsinterest groups ecology groups youth groups youth groups hobbies groups consumer organizations social clubssports groups "other" social groups. community service

26 Relative Strength of Association: Group Memberships and Political Engagement, Europe Membership Alone Union.63all p <.01 Human rights.59 Charity Groups.59 Consumer Groups.47 Arts Groups.42 Environmental groups.41 Youth Groups ns Sports groups ns Church group ns

27 Results Join a Party Freq. of Political Discussion Sports ArtsSportsArts Norway Denmark Netherlands Belgium W Germany France Ireland Portugal Italy Spain Great Britain Greece BOLD = significant...larger number (+/-) = greater effect Controlling for age, income, gender, education, religion, ideology

28 Major findings: Not all groups have same relationship w/ engagement More time spent with social groups = more political engagement Many non-political groups have no association Churches? Sports – only in NZ, Norway, Belgium, Port. Arts groups trump sports groups Sports: Correlation, not causation?

29 Cross National: Trust and Sports, 29 Nations 2004 Correlation btw % who join sports clubs and % trust people

30 So, why don ’ t people join?

31 TV = Time displacement effect ?

32 From Putnam ’ s book, Bowling Alone


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