1. 1 State retrenchments and class dynamics: the “new” middle class(es) under strain L ouis Chauvel Pr at Sciences-Po University Paris and Institut Universitaire de France Site : http://louis.chauvel.free.fr chauvel@sciences-po.fr

2. 2 Intentions lDeveloping aspects of my book in cohort dynamics of inequality “Destiny of Generations” lQuestioning the cohort sustainability of the French welfare regime lFocusing less on the extremes (poverty, exclusion, or the élite) than on inequality “at the center” lAre the middle classes facing new challenges ?

3. 3 Facing a French paradox/contradiction: 1- France as a country of stable, comfortable, equalitarian, protected middle class 2- France as a country of political instability, uncertainty and problems: April 21 st 2002 extreme right wing candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen qualification for the 2 nd turn of presidential elections, rejection of the European Treaty May 29 2005, populist streams, xenophobia, fears, youth despair, strikes and riots, CPE… « Yes » at two European referendums in France by socio-occupational group (%) Source : My own computation of CEVIPOF 1995 microdata and CSA postelectoral survey 2005. Maastricht treaty referendum 20 September 1992 European constitutional treaty referendum 29 may 2005 Change Higher service class 66 67 1 Non agric. Self employed 49 53 4 Lower service class 55 46 -9 Routine white collars 47 37 -10 Blue collar workers 43 30 -13 Diff = 23% Diff = 37% Tot = 51% Tot = 46%

4. 4 Precision: the French “Middle class” = the class of the middle Frenchmen and Frenchwomen lIncome (and other resources) close to the national average lOccupational status in an intermediate position l(Representations, culture and consciousness, notably adhesion to an optimistic vision of upward mobility…) Plan lFrance Middle class in an apparent stability lBack to a schmollerian definition lThe middle class dynamics and welfare state retrenchments lConclusion: post-affluent societies and the middle class(es)

5. 5 The French apparent stability Gini Coef. and interdecile ratios of after tax and transfer incomes (by consumption units) Source : The Luxembourg Income Study database : http://www.lisproject.org and French Family expenditure surveys-INSEE 2000 for France 1999-2000 (archives : Maurice Halbwachs Center).

6. 6 Age groups Relative income (1=Tot) France wave of intercohort inequalities Cohort wave 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 2030405060 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 Source : The Luxembourg Income Study database : http://www.lisproject.org and French Family expenditure surveys-INSEE 2000 for France 1999-2000 (data archives : Maurice Halbwachs Center). after tax and transfer incomes (by consumption units) Decline of 25 pts

7. 7 Age groups Interdecile ratio France decline in senior intracohort inequalities and increase for juniors 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 Source : The Luxembourg Income Study database : http://www.lisproject.org and French Family expenditure surveys-INSEE 2000 for France 1999-2000 (archives : Maurice Halbwachs Center). after tax and transfer incomes (by consumption units)

8. 8 Back to a schmollerian definition Schmoller G., 1897, Was verstehen wir unter dem Mittelstande? Hat er im 19. Jahrhundert zu oder abgenommen?, Göttingen, Vandenhoeck und Ruprecht. Against the Marxist theory of absolute pauperization : => Late Nineteenth century and the expansion of large state and private technical, managerial and expertise bureaucracies – supported and institutionalized by increasing social rights – foster the constitution of a culturally educated and economically comfortable “neu mittelstand” Educational ressources Economic Ressources Higher strata Lower Strata New higher middle class Old higher middle class New lower middle class Old lower middle class => The state is not simply an equalitarian ruler, a provider of decommodified resources, it is also a specific employer

9. 9 The middle class dynamics and Welfare state expansions and retrenchments The demography of the middle classes (% of the total population, 20 to 59 year old) Sources : Enquêtes emploi 1982-2002 INSEE, Lasmas Iresco/ Institut Quételet (Each year, N=70.000). Note : Higher independents are self-employed professionals, managers of private companies with 10 employees or more; Lower independents are self employed craftsmen and tradesmen. Pub is for public status wage earners in public or national companies, public hospitals or in local government administrations. Private is for wage earners in private contracts.

10. 10 Which is the gap between real positions and candidates ? lWe consider 4 occupational groups : Higher service class with public long term contract, higher service class with private contract, the same for lower service class. lIn 1982, we estimate the probability of membership to these 4 occupational groups by education, gender, social origin (polytomic logistic reg.) for two age groups (30-34 and 50-54 age groups) lWe estimate from 1983 to 2000 the probabilities of theoretical membership (“candidates” given education, gender, social origin) (=> higher level of education = multiplication of candidates)

11. 11 Empirical and theoretical % in different occupational groups evolution of different social groups in % Age Group 50-55 year oldAge Group 30-35 year old Sources : Enquêtes emploi 1982-2002 INSEE, Lasmas Iresco/ Institut Quételet.

12. 12 Conclusions: lDecline in youth relative income lIncrease of inequality indexes for the young lExcess of candidates for available positions in public intermediate positions lThe young generation with short university curricula face a backlash in the intergenerational mobility opportunities lStrong frustrations of the youth in a society where seniors benefit from a clear real expansion lBut is the “new” middle class really new ? (Declining return to “cultural capital”)

13. 13 Farewell to cultural capital : No more books to sell The former “Librairie des PUF” (Presses universitaires de France) Place de la Sorbonne (closed on december 2005 - a kind of lower middle class “Zara” will open soon)

14. 14 Working classes 1960 Upper Middle Classes 2006 Working classes 2006 Associationnism, stronger participation to civil society, local groups of pressure, etc. Upper Middle Classes 1960 Trade union decline, dismantlement of large production sites, individualization of the assessment of performance, etc. Regulation + (Heteronomy) Regulation – (Autonomy) Integration + (social capital +) Integration - (social capital -) The upper middle and working classes in the durkheimian space