1. Welfare regimes, social fluctuations and the generational gap
Compared cohort dynamics in France, Europe and the United states
Louis Chauvel Sciences-Po Paris
Site :

2. Plan Facts concerning the French generational fluctuations
Intensions : Answering this paradox : economic growth, but no sign of it in my “generational neighbourhood” Understanding how Welfare regimes can influence the distribution of resources between birth cohorts
Plan
Facts concerning the French generational fluctuations
A theory of generational dynamics
Welfare models and generational dynamics
The case of France as a typical corporatist model
Other trajectories in Europe

3. Risks of unemployment 12 months after living school (%)
QUESTION : are there long term consequences of collective difficulties when entering labor market ?
Risks of unemployment 12 months after living school  (%)
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
Male
20%
Female
15%
Cohorte 1959
10% 5%
Cohorte 1953 0%
1970
1980
1990
2000
Source : Enquêtes emploi INSEE , archives Lasmas

4. Source: INSEE family budgets
“Consumption” relative poverty rates by adult age groups (family budget ) in France
Source: INSEE family budgets
Note: the definition of “consumption” poverty threshold is based on the European relative definition: people with standardized equivalent consumption adjusted for family size below 50% of the national median are poor. Each new generation enters with a stronger poverty rate, which increases progressively at any later age. 0% 5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30% 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
1985
2000

5. Source : Enquêtes Emploi 1982-2000, INSEE ; archives LASMAS-Quételet
4. The newer generations know no more improvement, when compared to their own parents
Intergenerational upward and downward mobility rate (male age y.o.)
Source : Enquêtes Emploi , INSEE ; archives LASMAS-Quételet 60 50
down 40
immobile 30 up 20 10
Sources : Enquêtes Emploi – INSEE (origine : LASMAS IDL – CNRS)
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005

6. 5. A major risk of dyssocialization
Evolution of relative suicide risk for two age groups (1965 and 1995) (per )
Source : Chauvel, 1997a²

7. Primary socialization Secondary socialization
Socialization versus individual and collective history
Life cycle and socialization
Primary and secondary socialization (Berger et Luckmann)
The « transitionnal socialization »
Long term impact of the « transitionnal socialization » : « scar effect »
History and the constitution of a Generationengeist and of a Generationenlage
Primary socialization
Untill mandatory school (?)
Transitionnal socialization
Secondary socialization
« adulthood »
16-18 y.o.
25-30 y.o.

8. Interpreting the French case:
Esping-Andersen Typology of Welfare states: France = “corporatist-conservative” « welfare mix », stabilization of social relations Protection of insiders (protected male workers) against outsiders
In case of economic brake : « Insiderisation » of insiders, already in the stable labor force and « outsiderisation » of new entrants
In France, young people can wait … decades Increasing poverty rates for young people, stable intracohort inequalities (after taxes and welfare reallocations)
Are other intergenerational compromise possible ?

9. Three modalities Esping-Andersen Typology of Welfare states :
Conservative model» (Continental Europe) : Preservation of (old) social equilibria, with social insurance excluding unemployed
Liberal model : (Anglo-saxon world) : Market as a central institution, residual welfare state against market failures HL0 : more intracohort inequalities HL1 : less intercohort inequality (competition between generations)
« Social-democrat » Model (Nordic Europe) : Citizenship and broad participation to discussions and bargaining around social reforms between social groups (gender, generations, etc.) for a long-term development HD0 : less intracohort inequalities HD1 : residual intercohort inequalities (compromise between generations)

10. International variations :
Three great models of evolution :
Continental and Mediterranean Europe (+ Japon) : protection of insiders against outsiders (new generations are facing major difficulties)
United States and anglo-saxon countries : the new generations, in the average, face difficulties, but higher inequalities imply a divergence between lowest and highest income groups and social classes
Northern Europe : Closer to a universalistic egalitarian equilibrium between age groups, genders and social classes (lower intra- and inter- cohort inequalities)
Emerging countries :
in fast growth countries (China, Taiwan ?, India, Central-Easter Europe) : new opportunities for newer cohorts, and higher inter- and intra-cohort inequalities to the benefit to young university graduates
in stagnation countries (Argentina, Northern Africa) : intergenerational inequalities and generational destabilization (inflation of diplomas and declining return to education)