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1 Welfare regimes, social fluctuations and the generational gap Compared cohort dynamics in France, Europe and the United states Louis Chauvel Sciences-Po.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Welfare regimes, social fluctuations and the generational gap Compared cohort dynamics in France, Europe and the United states Louis Chauvel Sciences-Po."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Welfare regimes, social fluctuations and the generational gap Compared cohort dynamics in France, Europe and the United states Louis Chauvel Sciences-Po Paris Site :

2 2 Intensions : Answering this paradox : economic growth, but no sign of it in my generational neighbourhood Understanding how Welfare regimes can influence the distribution of resources between birth cohorts Plan lFacts concerning the French generational fluctuations lA theory of generational dynamics lWelfare models and generational dynamics lThe case of France as a typical corporatist model lOther trajectories in Europe

3 3 QUESTION : are there long term consequences of collective difficulties when entering labor market ? Risks of unemployment 12 months after living school (%) Source : Enquêtes emploi INSEE , archives Lasmas 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Male Female Cohorte 1953 Cohorte 1959

4 4 Consumption relative poverty rates by adult age groups (family budget ) in France Source: INSEE family budgets Note: the definition of consumption poverty threshold is based on the European relative definition: people with standardized equivalent consumption adjusted for family size below 50% of the national median are poor. Each new generation enters with a stronger poverty rate, which increases progressively at any later age. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

5 5 4. The newer generations know no more improvement, when compared to their own parents Intergenerational upward and downward mobility rate (male age y.o.) Source : Enquêtes Emploi , INSEE ; archives LASMAS-Quételet Sources : Enquêtes Emploi – INSEE (origine : LASMAS IDL – CNRS) down up immobile

6 6 5. A major risk of dyssocialization Evolution of relative suicide risk for two age groups (1965 and 1995) (per ) Source : Chauvel, 1997a²

7 7 Socialization versus individual and collective history lLife cycle and socialization lPrimary and secondary socialization (Berger et Luckmann) lThe « transitionnal socialization » lLong term impact of the « transitionnal socialization » : « scar effect » lHistory and the constitution of a Generationengeist and of a Generationenlage Primary socialization Untill mandatory school (?) Transitionnal socialization Secondary socialization « adulthood » y.o y.o.

8 8 Interpreting the French case: lEsping-Andersen Typology of Welfare states: France = corporatist-conservative « welfare mix », stabilization of social relations Protection of insiders (protected male workers) against outsiders lIn case of economic brake : « Insiderisation » of insiders, already in the stable labor force and « outsiderisation » of new entrants lIn France, young people can wait … decades Increasing poverty rates for young people, stable intracohort inequalities (after taxes and welfare reallocations) lAre other intergenerational compromise possible ?

9 9 Three modalities Esping-Andersen Typology of Welfare states : lConservative model» (Continental Europe) : Preservation of (old) social equilibria, with social insurance excluding unemployed lLiberal model : (Anglo-saxon world) : Market as a central institution, residual welfare state against market failures HL0 : more intracohort inequalities HL1 : less intercohort inequality (competition between generations) l« Social-democrat » Model (Nordic Europe) : Citizenship and broad participation to discussions and bargaining around social reforms between social groups (gender, generations, etc.) for a long-term development HD0 : less intracohort inequalities HD1 : residual intercohort inequalities (compromise between generations)

10 10 International variations : lThree great models of evolution : Continental and Mediterranean Europe (+ Japon) : protection of insiders against outsiders (new generations are facing major difficulties) United States and anglo-saxon countries : the new generations, in the average, face difficulties, but higher inequalities imply a divergence between lowest and highest income groups and social classes Northern Europe : Closer to a universalistic egalitarian equilibrium between age groups, genders and social classes (lower intra- and inter- cohort inequalities) lEmerging countries : in fast growth countries (China, Taiwan ?, India, Central-Easter Europe) : new opportunities for newer cohorts, and higher inter- and intra-cohort inequalities to the benefit to young university graduates in stagnation countries (Argentina, Northern Africa) : intergenerational inequalities and generational destabilization (inflation of diplomas and declining return to education)


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