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. 2011 Southern California Lodging Forecast Presented by: Bruce Baltin, Senior Vice President Mark Van Stekelenburg, Vice President Brandon Feighner, Associate.

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Presentation on theme: ". 2011 Southern California Lodging Forecast Presented by: Bruce Baltin, Senior Vice President Mark Van Stekelenburg, Vice President Brandon Feighner, Associate."— Presentation transcript:

1 . 2011 Southern California Lodging Forecast Presented by: Bruce Baltin, Senior Vice President Mark Van Stekelenburg, Vice President Brandon Feighner, Associate COLLIERS PKF CONSULTING Los Angeles, CA

2 1.Macro Overview 2.2011Southern California Lodging Forecast 3.Q & A 1.Macro Overview 2.2011Southern California Lodging Forecast 3.Q & A Expectations…..Uncertainty 2

3 The Hotel Market Cycle Rapid Development Occupancy Declines, ADR Follows Development at Minimum Levels Lodging Decline, Leads Other Sectors Occupancy Recovers ADR and Margins Recover Development Picks Up Development Slows Lodging Recovers, Lags Other Sectors Long Run Occupancy Rapid Development Equilibrium ADR U.S. is Here 2011-2012 Moving Past the Trough 2013-2014 A Year Ago 3

4 Current Forecast – September 2010 - a Quicker Turnaround Source: Colliers PKF Hospitality Research – September-November 2010 Hotel Horizons ® Report, Smith Travel Research ? 4

5 Long Term Average 20062007200820092010F2011F2012F Supply2.2% 0.2%1.3%2.5%3.1%2.0%1.1%.08% Demand 1.5% 0.5%0.8%-2.1%-5.9%7.3%3.2%4.9% Occupancy 62.2% 63.1%62.8%60.0%54.7%57.5%58.7%61.0% ADR 2.9% 7.6%6.4%2.8%-8.8%-0.6%3.8%6.3% RevPAR2.3% 7.9%5.9%-1.9%-16.8%4.6%5.9%10.6% National Horizon September 2010 Update A Quicker Turnaround? Record Decline Record Increase Source: Colliers PKF Hospitality Research – September-November 2010 Hotel Horizons ® Report, Smith Travel Research 5

6 National Hotel Horizons (Preliminary 2011 Data) Source: Colliers PKF Hospitality Research – Preliminary 2011 Hotel Horizons ® Report, Smith Travel Research 6 National vs. Regional Lodging Comparison 2010 Year-End Estimates LocationOccADR RevPA R %Increas e United States57.5%$97.33$55.934.6% Los Angeles County68.9%$119.17$82.127.2% Orange County67.7%$108.58$73.512.4% San Diego County66.9%$125.18$83.762.7%

7 National Hotel Horizons (Preliminary 2011 Data) Source: Colliers PKF Hospitality Research – Preliminary 2011 Hotel Horizons ® Report, Smith Travel Research 7 National vs. Regional Lodging Comparison 2011 Year-End Forecasts LocationOccADR RevPA R %Increas e United States58.7%$100.98$59.325.9% Los Angeles County71.5%$124.77$89.178.6% Orange County68.6%$114.29$78.456.7% San Diego County69.8%$132.97$92.8710.9%

8 Recovery Timelines Mixed Across Markets: Distance to Long Run Average Occupancy Level Updated 6/15/2010 - aw 8 Source: Colliers PKF Hospitality Research – September-November 2010 Hotel Horizons ® Report, Smith Travel Research

9 Year When ADR Levels Return to Previous Peak Recovery Timelines Mixed Across Markets: Year When ADR Levels Return to Previous Peak Updated 6/15/2010 - aw 9 Source: Colliers PKF Hospitality Research – September-November 2010 Hotel Horizons ® Report, Smith Travel Research

10 Year When Nominal RevPAR Returns to Previous Peak Recovery Timelines Mixed Across Markets: Year When Nominal RevPAR Returns to Previous Peak Updated 6/15/2010 - aw 10 Source: Colliers PKF Hospitality Research – September-November 2010 Hotel Horizons ® Report, Smith Travel Research

11 Revenue & Expenses 2009 Annual Trends ® The worst year on record is now behind us! is now behind us! 11

12 Summary Headwinds Against the Economy – Uncertainty: * The November elections * Tax policy as of January 1, 2011 * Persistent high levels of unemployment * Continued weakness in housing * Airline capacity constraints Forecast bias = slight negative. 12

13 Los Angeles County JW Marriott/Ritz LA Live fully absorbed into downtown market, inducing additional demand – 24.8% RevPAR growth estimated for 2010 Westside showing strong occupancy recovery, rate following. West Hollywood, Hollywood, and West LA has a number of newly renovated hotels, poised for recovery. Los Angeles County 2010 Historical Market Performance of the Competitive Supply AnnualPercentOccupiedPercentMarketAveragePercent YearSupplyChangeRoomsChangeOccupancyDaily RateChangeREVPARChange 200535,323,605N/A26,754,099N/A75.7%$136.89N/A$103.68N/A 200635,607,5751.5%27,475,8332.7%77.2153.5412.2%118.4814.3% 200735,178,7000.827,003,018-1.776.8165.888.0127.337.5 200834,804,210-1.225,863,600-4.274.3170.742.9126.88-0.4 200936,215,4404.124,402,840-5.667.4151.45-11.3102.05-19.6 2010 E37,402,0233.326,876,08210.171.9152.230.5109.397.2 2011 F37,674,4140.727,438,3872.172.8160.955.7117.227.2 CAAG1.1% 0.4% 2.7% 2.1% Source: Colliers PKF Consulting

14 Los Angeles County Santa Monica submarket expected to achieve highest 2010 submarket occupancy, followed by LAX and Arcadia/Monrovia. 281,000 definite and tentative room nights on the 2011 convention calendar, 300,000+ for 2012 and 2013 as LA Inc and Downtown drive new business. 2009 openings include AVIA Long Beach Hotel with 138 guestrooms and the 178-room Residence Inn, as well as the June 2009 opening of the 582-room Terranea. 2010 openings include JW Marriott and Ritz LA Live, the W Hollywood, and the re-opening of Best Western Jamaica Bay in Marina Del Rey in December. No openings expected for 2011.

15 Orange County Affordable, accessible leisure destinations out performed all other market segments (Anaheim) SNA passenger counts down 3.8% year-to-date, but well positioned for future years given current $0.5 billion expansion Convention Center activity remains robust Recent passage of 2% TID in Anaheim Resort Area Orange County Historical Market Performance of the Competitive Supply AnnualPercentOccupiedPercentMarketAveragePercent YearSupplyChangeRoomsChangeOccupancyDaily RateChangeREVPARChange 200517,192,230N/A12,326,014N/A71.7%$104.69N/A$75.06N/A 200618,214,5955.9%13,245,1307.5%72.7118.1612.9%85.9214.5% 200718,976,7154.213,825,5324.472.9128.178.593.388.7 200819,139,8230.913,580,431-1.871.0128.160.090.94-2.6 200919,463,9081.712,520,143-7.864.3115.51-9.974.30-18.3 2010 E19,701,9451.213,501,9347.868.5113.35-1.977.684.6 2011 F19,729,3580.113,848,9412.670.2118.824.883.417.4 CAAG2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.8% Source: Colliers PKF Consulting

16 Orange County 16 Coastal resorts achieving significant RevPAR recovery Costa Mesa and Airport submarkets posting highest 2010 occupancies Disneyland Resort continues to be a driving force for hotel demand Expansion/Renovation of the Grand Californian & Disneyland Hotel $1 Billion expansion of California Adventure SpringHill Suites Anaheim opening in mid-2011 (NE of Disneyland SEC Ball & Walnut) Only addition to supply, But the immediate Anaheim Area remains the most studied area in the County for proposed hotels

17 San Diego County - Only new addition for 2011 is Hampton Inn Mission Valley in December2011/ January2012 (87 keys) - Marriott Escondido still on hold - 94-room Towne Place Vista and the 112-room Residence Inn San Marcos, both of which opened mid-2010 in I-15 Kearny Mesa market - Compression markets such as Mission Valley and South Bay posting slower recovery San Diego County Historical Market Performance of the Competitive Supply AnnualPercentOccupiedPercentMarketAveragePercent YearSupplyChangeRoomsChangeOccupancyDaily RateChangeREVPARChange 200511,500,420N/A8,632,244N/A75.1%$149.82N/A$112.46N/A 200611,676,7611.5%8,829,0772.3%75.6161.707.9%122.278.7% 200711,858,8501.68,894,7750.775.0171.956.3128.975.5 200812,244,4123.38,819,188-0.872.0174.981.8126.03-2.3 200912,974,6556.08,601,369-2.566.3151.58-13.4100.49-20.3 2010 E13,183,4351.69,175,5956.769.6147.64-2.6102.762.3 2011 F13,221,0300.39,504,9703.671.9156.005.7112.149.1 CAAG2.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% Source: Colliers PKF Consulting

18 San Diego County 18 Downtown on its ways to absorbing 1,500 rooms annualized in 2009, including the Hilton, Se, and Residence Inn Gaslamp, market expected to reach 75% by 2011 Other Changes in supply Projects in pipeline still year+ away from breaking ground Convention Center expansion lease still active, plans for $753 million expansion Narco-terrorism and continued economic pressure drives demand from Mexico and other resort locations to SoCal.

19 Inland Empire Greater impact as a result of reliance mainly on commercial demand Rate wars and lack of product differentiation lead to depressed Average Daily Rates Significant supply added in 2005-2009 still being absorbed and will lengthen recovery period Airlift remains contentious; Ontario exploring plans to take over But 2010 WILL exhibit positive growth for the 1 st time since 2007 Short term, will be painful, but long-term fundamentals remain in tact as it is the only market for real growth in SoCal Inland Empire Historical Market Performance of the Competitive Supply AnnualPercentOccupiedPercentMarketAveragePercent YearSupplyChangeRoomsChangeOccupancyDaily RateChangeREVPARChange 20052,002,390N/A1,485,862N/A74.2%$92.54N/A$68.67N/A 20062,245,48012.1%1,623,8219.3%72.398.977.0%71.574.2% 20072,344,0304.41,674,1913.171.4101.142.272.240.9 20082,483,8256.01,629,444-2.765.699.80-1.365.47-9.4 20092,725,4559.71,557,313-4.457.187.50-12.349.99-23.6 2010 E2,814,5153.31,721,68110.661.282.11-6.250.230.5 2011 F2,892,9902.81,807,7655.062.583.421.652.133.8 CAAG6.3% 3.3% -1.7% -4.5% Source: Colliers PKF Consulting

20 Coachella Valley Three Distinct Markets - Based on quality and level of facilities (Down Valley Resorts, Palm Springs/Cathedral City and other Limited-Service) Dependency on tourism and group demand has resulted in lower occupied rooms, discounted rates, and clever packaging Continued RevPAR decline estimated for 2010, slower rate turnaround projected than other SoCal markets Convention Calendar looks promising with 100K+ Room Nights for 2010 & 2011 The group market should be returning in time for the 2011 peak season, which it missed in 2009 and 2010 At long last, The Ritz Carlton will be reopening… Coachella Valley Market Historical Market Performance of the Competitive Supply AnnualPercentOccupiedPercentMarketAveragePercent YearSupplyChangeRoomsChangeOccupancyDaily RateChangeREVPARChange 20053,422,088N/A2,179,480N/A63.7%$135.90N/A$86.55N/A 20063,353,955-2.0%2,180,4760.0%65.0143.815.8%93.508.0% 20073,272,590-2.42,008,832-7.961.4150.144.492.16-1.4 20083,509,5977.22,018,2030.557.5147.44-1.884.79-8.0 20093,736,6426.51,884,957-6.650.4133.81-9.267.50-20.4 2010 E3,787,9701.41,926,1542.250.8128.20-4.265.19-3.4 2011 F3,796,0000.22,015,3854.653.1132.583.470.398.0 CAAG1.7% -1.3% -0.4% -3.4% Source: Colliers PKF Consulting

21 Ventura County Competitively priced coastal destination resulted in one of the smaller 2008/09 declines in Southern California Leading SoCal markets in growth in occupied rooms for 2010 Upward positioning of properties to maintain rate positioning Ventura County Historical Market Performance of the Competitive Supply AnnualPercentOccupiedPercentMarketAveragePercent YearSupplyChangeRoomsChangeOccupancyDaily RateChangeREVPARChange 20051,508,180N/A1,011,029N/A67.0%$ 93.19N/A$62.47N/A 20061,574,6104.4%1,085,3487.4%68.998.275.4%67.748.4% 20071,603,8101.91,080,962-0.467.4102.814.669.292.3 20081,620,9651.11,069,73466.0103.210.468.11-1.7 20091,574,610-2.9983,532-8.162.598.32-4.761.41-9.8 2010 E1,634,8353.81,079,3749.766.098.04-0.364.735.4 2011 F1,650,5301.01,126,7984.468.3100.732.868.776.2 CAAG1.5% 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% Source: Colliers PKF Consulting

22 Santa Barbara County Set represents approximately 60% of Santa Barbara supply Coastal Resorts leading recovery, return in group market. High barriers to new hotel development, increased by economic pressure Significant renovations at several properties has mitigated decline North county has benefited from drive in vacations Santa Barbara County Historical Market Performance of the Competitive Supply AnnualPercentOccupiedPercentMarketAveragePercent YearSupplyChangeRoomsChangeOccupancyDaily RateChangeREVPARChange 20051,853,835N/A1,318,299N/A71.1%$153.39N/A$109.08N/A 20061,860,0400.3%1,329,9520.9%71.5171.7512.0%122.8112.6% 20071,856,025-0.21,321,922-0.671.2183.056.6130.386.2 20081,880,4801.31,305,699-1.269.4182.47-0.3126.70-2.8 20091,939,9753.21,239,684-5.163.9168.84-7.5107.89-14.8 2010 E1,950,9250.61,310,9815.867.2171.251.4115.086.7 2011 F1,950,9250.01,356,6173.569.5178.374.2124.037.8 CAAG0.9% 0.5% 2.5% 2.2% Source: Colliers PKF Consulting

23 San Luis ObispoCounty Popular drive destination for both Southern and Northern California achieved smallest decline of any SoCal market Approximately 82% visitors arrive by automobile according to San Luis Obispo CVB – minimized impact of declining airline inventory Lower starting RevPAR basis – 2007/08 increases in supply still being absorbed San Luis Obispo Combined Historical Market Performance of the Competitive Supply AnnualPercentOccupiedPercentMarketAveragePercent YearSupplyChangeRoomsChangeOccupancyDaily RateChangeREVPARChange 20051,216,180N/A837,192N/A68.8%$116.49N/A$80.19N/A 20061,312,5407.9%862,4303.0%65.7128.039.9%84.124.9% 20071,417,6608.0943,5249.466.6131.062.487.233.7 20081,503,8006.1983,7104.365.4129.20-1.484.51-3.1 20091,522,7801.3951,546-3.362.5125.27-3.078.28-7.4 2010 E1,541,7601.2970,2762.062.9123.77-1.277.89-0.5 2011 F1,569,8651.8999,3843.063.7127.953.481.454.6 CAAG4.3% 3.0% 1.6% 0.3% Source: Colliers PKF Consulting

24 Coastal Market “First Tier ($400+) highest 2010 RevPAR growth estimate at 24.8%, Tier 3 at 7.4% (>$275) and Tier 2 -0.8% ($275<--<$400) Recent additions include - 2007 - Grand Del Mar - 2008 - Sheraton Carlsbad and Pelican Hill Resort - 2009 - Shorebreak Hotel in Huntington Beach and the Terranea Resort in Rancho Palos Verdes. - No new hotels opened in 2010 or are expected to in 2011. Coastal Market Historical Market Performance of the Competitive Supply AnnualPercentOccupiedPercentMarketAveragePercent YearSupplyChangeRoomsChangeOccupancyDaily RateChangeREVPARChange 20052,458,701N/A1,701,051N/A69.2%$279.37N/A$193.28N/A 20062,478,4110.8%1,748,2232.8%70.5305.069.2%215.1811.3% 20072,531,4272.11,782,8242.070.4325.586.7229.296.6 20082,669,4885.51,789,4900.467.0328.370.9220.12-4.0 20092,975,35811.51,703,819-4.857.3284.46-13.4162.90-26.0 2010 E3,086,5013.71,930,88713.362.6282.35-0.7176.648.4 2011 F3,086,5010.02,023,4244.865.6296.074.9194.109.9 CAAG3.9% 2.9% 1.0% 0.1% Source: Colliers PKF Consulting

25 Coastal Submarkets Group demand starting to return, strong ADR growths expected in 2011, with First Tier leading the way. Coastal SoCal continues to develop as a self-standing international group and leisure destination. Significant additions to supply from 2005 to 2009 still being absorbed, but the good news is there is little in the pipeline

26 Q & A What questions can we answer for you?

27 Thank you for your time. 27


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