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Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC 164 Canal Street Boston, MA 02114 ~ 617/722-9916 OUTLOOK 2007.

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Presentation on theme: "Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC 164 Canal Street Boston, MA 02114 ~ 617/722-9916 OUTLOOK 2007."— Presentation transcript:

1 Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC rroginsky@pinnacle-advisory.com 164 Canal Street Boston, MA 02114 ~ 617/722-9916 www.pinnacle-advisory.com OUTLOOK 2007

2 NATIONAL LODGING MARKET

3 Total U.S. Monthly Room Supply – Seasonally Adjusted January 1989 to April 2006 Source: Smith Travel Research CAGR – 2.065% CAGR 3.5% CAGR 0.8% 4.4 Million Rooms 3.1 Million Rooms

4 Source: Smith Travel Research Peak CAGR – 2.7% CAGR – 2.061% 6.1% Total U.S.Monthly Room Demand – Seasonally Adjusted January 1989 to April 2006

5 Total United States Occupancy Percent 2002 – 2007P Source: Smith Travel Research

6 Total United States ADR Percent Change 2002 – 2007P Source: Smith Travel Research

7 Total United States RevPAR Percent Change 2002 – 2006P Source: Smith Travel Research

8 Top 25 Market Areas – Occupancy Percent 2005 Source: Smith Travel Research

9 Top 25 Market Areas – Average Daily Rate 2005 Source: Smith Travel Research

10 Top 25 Market Areas – RevPAR 2005 Source: Smith Travel Research

11 Key 15 Markets RevPAR Percent Change April 2006 YTD Year-over-Year 3.5 7.2 7.5 9.0 9.9 10.0 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.6 12.4 15.5 16.6 17.6 17.8 20.0 2.4 0510152025 Washington Philadelphia Orlando All Other Markets Total US New York Los Angeles San Diego Top 25 Markets Miami Phoenix Boston San Francisco Honolulu Atlanta Dallas Chicago Source: Smith Travel Research

12 SUBURBAN BOSTON LODGING MARKET

13 Suburban Boston Occupancy 1996 - 2005 Source: Smith Travel Research/Pinnacle Advisory Group

14 Suburban Boston Average Daily Rate 1996-2005 Source: Smith Travel Research/Pinnacle Advisory Group

15 Suburban Boston RevPAR 1996 - 2005 Source: Smith Travel Research/Pinnacle Advisory Group

16 Suburban Boston Supply and Demand 1999 - 2005 Source: Smith Travel Research/Pinnacle Advisory Group

17 Suburban Boston Occupancy YTD May 2004 - 2006 Source: Smith Travel Research/Pinnacle Advisory Group

18 Suburban Boston Average Daily Rate YTD May 2004 - 2006 Source: Smith Travel Research/Pinnacle Advisory Group

19 Suburban Boston RevPAR YTD May 2004 - 2006 Source: Smith Travel Research/Pinnacle Advisory Group

20 Hilton Garden Inn – Plymouth – 130 Rooms – May Hampton Inn and Suites – Plymouth - 122-rooms – August Residence Inn – Marlborough – 112 Rooms - October Residence Inn – Norwood – 96 Rooms – November Suburban Boston New Supply 2006 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

21

22 Improving Economy Stronger Office Market Limited New Supply Compression Suburban Boston 2006

23 20052006Change Occupancy60%62%3.9% Average Rate$96.13$100.945.0% RevPAR$57.39$62.589.0% Suburban Boston Projections 2006 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

24 Limited New Supply Slightly less Compression Improved Economy Conversions Suburban Boston 2007

25 20062007Change Occupancy62%63%1.6% Average Rate$100.94$105.985.0% RevPAR$62.58$66.776.7% Suburban Boston Projections 2007 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

26 BOSTON CAMBRIDGE LODGING MARKET

27 Boston / Cambridge Occupancy 1989-2005 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

28 Boston / Cambridge ADR 1989-2005 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

29 Boston / Cambridge RevPAR 1989-2005 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

30 Boston / Cambridge Supply and Demand 1989-2005 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

31 Boston / Cambridge Occupancy YTD May 2004-2006 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

32 Boston / Cambridge ADR YTD May 2004-2006 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

33 Boston / Cambridge RevPAR YTD May 2004-2006 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

34 Boston / Cambridge Change In RevPAR 1996 – YTD May 2006 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

35 Boston / Cambridge Change In RevPAR By Market Area 2005 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

36 Boston / Cambridge Change In Performance By Market Area YTD May 2006 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

37 Westin Headquarters Hotel – Waterfront – 790 Rooms – June Intercontinental – Downtown - 424-rooms - November Boston / Cambridge New Supply 2006 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

38 Charles Street Jail – Beacon Hill – 308 Rooms - May Renaissance – 477 Rooms – Waterfront District – December Boston / Cambridge New Supply 2007 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

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40  Continued Strong Corporate Growth Anticipated  2006 Record Convention Year  2007 Slightly behind 2006  Winter Advertising Campaign will help off-season Leisure Boston / Cambridge Demand Factors Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

41  Strong increases in other national markets  Momentum from 2006 Likely to Carry-Over to 2007  Luxury Orientation of New Product Will Help  Large Citywides and Continued Strong demand will Help Compression Boston / Cambridge Average Rates Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

42 Several Regional Executives 5-7% RevPAR Growth Pinnacle Operator’s Survey 2007 Outlook Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

43 20052006Change Occupancy75%78%4.1% Average Rate$175.20$192.7210% RevPAR$131.22$150.3214.6% Boston Cambridge Projections 2006 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

44 20062007Change Occupancy78%77%-1.2% Average Rate$192.72$204.946.3% RevPAR$150.32$157.945.1% Boston Cambridge Projections 2006 Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

45 164 Canal Street Boston, MA 02114 ~ 617/722-9916 238 South State Street, Newtown, PA 18940 ~ 215/579-1804 3418 Norfolk Street, Pompano Beach, FL 33062 ~ 954/786-2019 www.pinnacle-advisory.com PINNACLE ADVISORY GROUP


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