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Executive Summary 1 Market Overview 2 Demand Analysis 3 Supply Analysis 4 Site Analysis 5 Conclusion 6 MARKET ANALYSIS.

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Presentation on theme: "Executive Summary 1 Market Overview 2 Demand Analysis 3 Supply Analysis 4 Site Analysis 5 Conclusion 6 MARKET ANALYSIS."— Presentation transcript:

1 Executive Summary 1 Market Overview 2 Demand Analysis 3 Supply Analysis 4 Site Analysis 5 Conclusion 6 MARKET ANALYSIS

2 Executive Summary 1 Market Overview 2 Demand Analysis 3 Supply Analysis 4 Site Analysis 5 Conclusion 6 1A. Overall Economy - Economic recovery continues slowly, though potential setbacks abound - Inexpensive capital, uncertain stock returns driving real estate investment 1B. Product Assumptions - Residential property - Hotel / Extended Stay 1C. Market Risk - Oversupply - Uncertainty about the area (Time and Competitors) Executive Summary 1

3 Executive Summary 1 Market Overview 2 Demand Analysis 3 Supply Analysis 4 Site Analysis 5 Conclusion 6 2A. Historical Analysis of Boston’s Economy - All indicators show steady growth until 2001, then a substantial drop and rebounded in 2003 and 2004 - Boston’s data corresponds to national trends, although slightly more depressed than overall U.S. Market Overview 2 2B. Future Trends for Boston’s Economy - Boston’s slow growth continues but with certain segments showing stronger performance (special attention in our case for Professional & Business Service and Hospitality & Leisure)

4 Executive Summary 1 Market Overview 2 Demand Analysis 3 Supply Analysis 4 Site Analysis 5 Conclusion 6 3A. Market Area Assumption 1: Multi-Family Housing - Geography: 3-mile radius -User: Primarily CBD and Convention Center white-collars - Price: Medium Assumption 2: Hotel / Extended Stay - Geography: 5-mile radius -User: Conventioneers, tourists, business travelers - Price: Medium Demand Analysis 3

5 Executive Summary 1 Market Overview 2 Demand Analysis 3 Supply Analysis 4 Site Analysis 5 Conclusion 6 3B. Demand Drivers Assumption 1: Multi-Family Housing - Employment sectors with highest projected growth rates are over- represented in S. Boston as compared to MSA. Therefore, demand growth in S. Boston is expected to outpace the overall region Assumption 2: Hotel / Extended Stay - Employment Growth - Masterplan “The Seaport Public Realm Plan” (Convention Center) Demand Analysis 3 - Market continuing to recover slowly, with tepid job growth - Boston’s economy historically shows similar trends as national scenario

6 Executive Summary 1 Market Overview 2 Demand Analysis 3 Supply Analysis 4 Site Analysis 5 Conclusion 6 3C. Absorption Assumption 1: Multi-Family Housing - Employment growth Assumption 2: Hotel / Extended Stay - Masterplan “The Seaport Public Realm Plan” (Convention Center) Demand Analysis 3 Occupied Room Nights / Year

7 Executive Summary 1 Market Overview 2 Demand Analysis 3 Supply Analysis 4 Site Analysis 5 Conclusion 6 4A. Existing Inventory and Near-term Inventory - Stock growth of 6.5% over last 10 years, outpaced employment growth by 1.5%. - Recent employment spike driving absorption and vacancies. - Vacancy rate at LT avg, expected to trend slowly upwards over 5 years. - 2005 completions 50% over LT avg, will decline beginning in 2006, but remain ahead of absorption going forward. Supply Analysis 4 Vacancy rate

8 Executive Summary 1 Market Overview 2 Demand Analysis 3 Supply Analysis 4 Site Analysis 5 Conclusion 6 5.5 MSF including 1,559 residential units planned or under construction 744 units planned or under construction 6.2 MSF including 2,500 residential units in pre-planning Project location 505 Congress St. S. Boston stock = 4% of MSA stock S. Boston pipeline = 29% of MSA’s projected 5 year net absorption 4B. South Boston Supply Pipeline Supply Analysis 4 Convention Center Hotel under construction 800-rooms + 320 second phase

9 Executive Summary 1 Market Overview 2 Demand Analysis 3 Supply Analysis 4 Site Analysis 5 Conclusion 6 4C. Business / Building Cycles - CA/T opportunity for redevelopment - BCEC since 2004 - Fort Point Channel, “100 acres development” - Fan Pier, ICA - Pier 4 - World Trade Center - South Station Tower (Office + Hotel) - Silver Line Supply Analysis 4

10 Executive Summary 1 Market Overview 2 Demand Analysis 3 Supply Analysis 4 Site Analysis 5 Conclusion 6 Cons: - Poor Geometry - Limited Vehicular Access - Heavy Traffic Flow (noise and visual pollution) - Tunnel Exhaust Stacks at neighbor site Pros: - Substantial Investments in Infrastructure - Strong potential for competition or beneficial development of new neighborhood - Good Public Transportation Linkage (Silver Line to the Airport) - Good linkage to Convention Center, Waterfront and CBD 5. Site Analysis (Outstanding Attributes) Site Analysis 5

11 Executive Summary 1 Market Overview 2 Demand Analysis 3 Supply Analysis 4 Site Analysis 5 Conclusion 6 - Employment growth will spur residential demand over coming years. However, substantial available land in the market area will require careful product differentiation in order to produce an acceptable capture rate 6A. Opportunity 6B. Risks 6C. Initial Conclusions - Multi-Family Housing >> opportunity to attend particular demand for single, mid-income employees from CBD and Convention Center (employment rate growth) - Hotel / Extended Stay >> opportunity to attend particular demand for conventioneers and business travelers from CBD - Exceeding Current and Projected Supply for above mentioned uses - Uncertainty about neighborhood development timeline Conclusion 6

12 Executive Summary 1 Market Overview 2 Demand Analysis 3 Supply Analysis 4 Site Analysis 5 Conclusion 6


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