1. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Modeling NextGen with systemwideModeler Pete Kuzminski Stéphane Mondoloni, PhD January 2010

2. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. 2 For Release to All FAA. This document has been approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. This is the copyright work of The MITRE Corporation and was produced for the U.S. Government under Contract Number DTFA01-01-C-00001 and is subject to Federal Aviation Administration Acquisition Management System Clause 3.5-13, Rights in Data-General, Alt. III and Alt. IV (Oct. 1996). No other use other than that granted to the U.S. Government, or to those acting on behalf of the U.S. Government, under that Clause is authorized without the express written permission of The MITRE Corporation. For further information, please contact The MITRE Corporation, Contract Office, 7515 Colshire Drive, McLean, VA 22102, (703) 983-6000. The contents of this material reflect the views of the author and/or the Director of the Center for Advanced Aviation System Development, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or Department of Transportation (DOT). Neither the FAA nor the DOT makes any warranty or guarantee, or promise, expressed or implied, concerning the content or accuracy of the views expressed herein.  2010 The MITRE Corporation. As such, the Government retains a nonexclusive, royalty-free right to publish or reproduce this document, or to allow others to do so, for “Government Purposes Only”.

3. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Uses of systemwideModeler to Model the NAS 3 Benefits EstimationOperations Analysis Future airspace bottlenecks Traffic management initiatives NextGen operational improvements Data communications New runways Airspace design … and more

4. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. CAASD’s System-wide Analysis Capabilities 4 systemwideModeler base future visualization and analysis experimentation scenario generation operational improvement abstraction Base scenarios data-driven Future scenarios grown via projection, linking/trimming, airframe routing algorithms 30+ sample days per treatment Future airspace/routes Fast-time simulation at flight-level 5-10 minute runtime Typically 300-600 runs 1-2 days runtime Database-based Visualization package Measurement tools Operational concept definition, benefits mechanism identification and quantification, model parameterization NAS EA → operational scenarios → influence diagrams Some higher resolution modeling for airports and sectors

5. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. systemwideModeler Approach 5 Flights plans Resources plans constraints Start with initial trajectories and airframe assignments Change plans to respect constraints Delay Swap airframe Cancellation Re-route (research) Characterize use by a flight Monitor flight plans/progress Anticipate resource condition, e.g., occupancy Formulate response Issue constraints to flights Most influential resources –Airports –Sectors –Airframes For each resource we model –Use (and load in aggregate) –Acceptable use/load (e.g., capacity) –Anticipation of use/load –Response

6. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Recent Improvements to systemwideModeler Document Number Here © 2009 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. 6

7. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Airport Runway Congestion Model 7 Use is landing/takeoff; load is throughput Acceptable load is throughput over short time periods –Proxy configuration for each weather condition Tactical response is queueing Strategic response is selection of operating point and called rates runway layout runway usage fleet mix weather rules simulation interface separations and requirements libraries aux  Tactical Model Arrivals queue, landing spaced at max rate  Departures queue, taking off spaced at rate feasible wrt imminent arrivals Demand Management Monitors departure queue and anticipated traffic Will call Arrival Acceptance Rate (AAR) to thin arrival stream if departure delays unacceptable runwaySimulator systemwideModeler

8. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Arrival Flow Management Model 8       minimum spacing over nodes (including AAR) limits to delay absorption between nodes planned passage times scheduling algorithm spacing definition algorithm Node detection in pre-processing To place realistic loads on TRACONs and en route sectors, systemwideModeler distributes delay absorption for airport arrival congestion Maintains anticipated landing schedule; respects AAR Solves for node passage times (including pushback and landing) –Limits delays in arrival TRACON, between airborne nodes, and in air before merge structure Spacing definition algorithm used to endogenously define in-trail restrictions over nodes Ground delay modeled

9. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. En Route Sector Congestion Model 9 sector workload t delayed entry threshold flight workload t EntryExit flight-attributable workload t EntryExit anon. workload t old new lookahead Upon entering sector, flight plans delay absorption Generally plans to take fair share in each sector o “Fair” by relative increase in transit times Ability to absorb delay adjustable by sector-pair 

10. Representing Operational Improvements in systemwideModeler Document Number Here © 2009 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. 10

11. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Aircraft Equipage RNAV/RNP VNAV Curved path capability (radius to fix) RNP AR LPV EFB Data Communication (FANS 1/A+, ATN Baseline 1) Flight Information Services - Broadcast Data Communications (ATN Baseline 2) GNSS Landing System ADS-B out ADS-B in CDTI Guidance Display Paired Approach Guidance Transformational Programs ADS-B SWIM NextGen Network Enabled Weather NAS Voice Switch Data Communications Airfield Development Runways, Taxiways & Airfields Initiate TBO Delegated Responsibility for Separation Oceanic In-trail Climb & Descent Automation Support for Mixed Environment Initial Conflict Resolution Advisories Flexible Entry Times for Oceanic Tracks Point-in-space Metering Flexible Airspace Management Increased Capacity and Efficiency Using RNAV/RNP Increase Arrival/Departures at High Density Airports Improve Operations to CSPR Initial Surface Traffic Management Time-Based Metering using RNP and RNAV Route Assignment Integrated Arrival/Departure Airspace Management Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Environment WTMD GBAS Precision Approaches Use Optimized Profile Descent Provide Full Surface Situation Information Enhance Surface Traffic Operations Improve Collaborative Air Traffic Management Continuous Flight Day Evaluation TMI with Flight Specific Trajectories Improved Management of Airspace for Special Use Trajectory Flight Data Management Provide Full Flight Plan Constraint Evaluation with Feedback Reduce Weather Impact Trajectory-Based Weather Impact Evaluation Improve Safety, Security and Environmental Performance Safety Management System Implementation Safety Management Enterprise Services Aviation Safety and Information Analysis and Sharing Operational Security Capability for Threat Detection & Tracking NAS Impact Analysis and Risk-based Assessment SSA and ISS Integrated Incident Detection and Response Information on System Security and Surveillance Integration/Protection Enhanced Air Traffic Procedures, Improved Environmental Technologies and Sustainable Alternative Aviation Fuels, and Integrated Environmental Modeling EMS Implementation and Environmental Policy Support Transform Facilities Integration, development and operations analysis Capability NextGen Facilities Net-Centric Virtual Facility 11 Images: source FAA Document Number Here © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Decisions, decisions… Many improvements with implementation decisions & architectural alternatives. Many candidate decisions to equip

12. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Modeling Performance Impact of Decisions 12 40 Independent decisions  1 trillion possible outcomes…start modeling!

13. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Discussion focuses here Evaluating Alternatives 13 Estimate the service provider and user life-cycle costs Assess the benefit performance of alternatives Define, Refine, Decompose Operational Concept Determine feasible alternative evolution paths Coordinated, iterative Consistent Documented in NAS EA OV-6c OV-5 Benefit Mechanisms Used to develop Influence Diagrams Documented in Down-selection Reduced Influence Diagrams & Timeline Analysis & Quantification High-level Operational Requirements “Functional Clusters” Influence Diagrams Used to develop Consistent with Down-selection Timelines Analysis & Quantification

14. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Influence Diagrams – The Basics Four types of nodes † used: –Decision Node –Metric –Random Variable –Key Performance Area Influences described with arrows Arrows with dotted lines prevent “cycles” Decision Metric Random Variable KPA Key Performance Areas (11) from ICAO † Different tools use different symbols Plant Locust- Resistant Crops Likelihood of Locusts Crop Yield 14

15. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. NextGen Example Inter-departure spacing – parallel runways WTMD Departure Capacity Taxi Delays Favorable wind conditions Number of par. runways <2500feet apart Fleet-mix Fuel Consumed Gate-to- gate time Operating Costs Schedule Predictability Emissions Environment Capacity Efficiency Predictability Use to obtain agreement on single mechanism Provides line-of-sight with interim metrics Transparent linkages to corresponding costing elements 15

16. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Dependencies & Shared Benefits Multiple factors influence the same mechanisms 16 Number of aircraft tactical maneuvers Number of restrictions Lateral precision Route Density Along-track predictability Trajectory prediction accuracy Resolution look- ahead time Metering Planning Accuracy … Efficiency Visualize Dependencies Many decisions can lead to same impact on interim measures Arrival Flow Gaps Some paths provide additional mechanisms

17. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Each “Influence” requires modeling E.g. FMS Offsets 17 Controller Workload Sector Capacity En Route Delay Gate-to-gate time Fuel Consumed Emissions Costs Airline Schedule Predictability Number of aircraft flow maneuvers Offset resolutions

18. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. FMS Route Offsets Time/Fuel Quantification –From assumptions: 6.4 NMI additional for lead –Trailing aircraft saves time, but likely incurs a fuel penalty (from operating at cost index > 0) Could add many smaller influences 18 8 NMI 45º X Change in Fuel (W f ) and time (T) of trailing aircraft

19. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. FMS Route Offsets Time/Fuel (cont’d) 19 Only consider circumstances where cost to lead < benefit to trailing Speed Distribution V SLOW V FAST Compute Implied CI: Sample: 60% of Conflicts † Total Conflicts Number of Overtaking Duration Distribution Number of beneficial options (50%) ~N(450,18) Sample Aircraft Types Average benefit equivalent to X lbs of fuel per event Applies in 30% of all conflicts (60%*50%)  Benefit of 0.3X lbs per conflict † From Bilimoria, K.,D., Methodology for the Performance Evaluation of a Conflict Probe, J. of Guidance, Control and Dynamics, Vol. 24, No.3, May-June 2001

20. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Linked Benefit Mechanism Influence Diagrams (In Progress) 20 Surface Arrival/Departure CATM, Wx, Airspace RNAV/RNP, TMA En Route

21. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Parameter Setting - Example Influence diagrams documents parameter setting in systemwideModeler 21 Number of aircraft conflict maneuvers Trajectory Prediction Accuracy Use of RTA Establish Metrics & Relationships Other things Affects systemwideModeler Parameters Model the influence... Further influences

22. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Accuracy Affects Conflicts Look-ahead Detect using 5 NMI + Buffer Buffer selected to get very few missed alerts † at 5 minutes Begin responding to alerts at a look-ahead > 5 minutes False alerts* result in additional conflict resolution workload Applied Monte Carlo simulation to obtain buffers With radar-level accuracy, required buffer = 3 NMI Look-ahead Increasing buffer *False alerts = A detected conflict at a specified look-ahead that does not result in loss of separation † Missed alert = A loss of separation that is not detected at a specified look-ahead time ‡ Monte-Carlo compared against: Bilimoria, K.D., Lee, H.Q., Properties of Air Traffic Conflicts for Free and Structured Routing, AIAA-2001-4051, GN&C Conference, Montreal, PQ, August, 2001 ‡ 22

23. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. RTA – Improves Prediction Accuracy Wind variability † Aircraft dynamics † Mondoloni, S., A multiple-scale model of wind-prediction uncertainty and application to trajectory prediction, AIAA-2006- 7807, ATIO 2006, Wichita, KS Only controls to time as approach RTA point, speed limited, infrequent speed target changes Design choice 23

24. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Improved Conflict Detection (based on Monte Carlo Simulation) ADS-B Improves over radar (better current speed estimation & position error) RTA Improves further through closed-loop control † † Validated against FAA-2007-29305-0012.1 (supporting material to NPRM for ADS-B out) False Alert Rate 24

25. F066-B10-004 © 2010 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Summary Improving both models and analysis process –Improving and expanding modeling features of systemwideModeler –Applying a structured process from concept to simulations –Improves capturing of benefit dependencies –Process reflects benefit and costs dependencies 25 Operational Concept Benefits Mechanisms Benefits Quantification sM Parameter Setting Operational Concept sM Parameter Setting Operational Concept sM Parameter Setting Benefits Mechanisms Benefits Quantification

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